The Elephant in the Room

Six years ago I posted an article on this website (Thinking – Is it Overrated?) challenging the popularity of Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT). I made the point that CBT is premised upon a long-since discredited view of the relationship existing between higher cognitive functioning and emotionally based cognition. Regardless, CBT is proffered as a scientifically sound technique, the validation of which (we are told) is evidence based. Consequently, we still have an army of CBT counsellors telling their patients that all emotion is led by thought, and that’s the end of the matter! I offered CBT as an example of a scientific community establishing a strong consensus, notwithstanding the incomprehensible levels of ill-informed naivety required to do so.

Today, I would like to return to the subject of thinking and emotion, but with quite a different motive. Before I start, I offer the following passage taken from Jonathan Haidt’s book, The Righteous Mind, which I think provides a most eloquent exposition of the issue:

In a landmark article, [Robert] Zajonc urged psychologists to use a dual-process model in which affect or “feeling” is the first process. It has primacy both because it happens first (it is part of perception and is therefore extremely fast) and because it is more powerful (it is closely linked to motivation, and therefore it strongly influences behaviour). The second process—thinking—is an evolutionarily newer ability, rooted in language and not closely related to motivation. In other words, thinking is the rider; affect is the [ridden] elephant. The thinking system is not equipped to lead—it simply doesn’t have the power to make things happen—but it can be a useful advisor.

Haidt’s metaphor of an elephant over which the rider has only limited influence (an elephant’s gotta do what an elephant’s gotta do) is intended to emphasise the primary role of our affects and emotions in invoking our moral positions. We may be able to offer a rationale for the stance we have adopted, but these are always post-hoc rationalisations. The rider serves the elephant and not the other way round. The moral position is established emotionally (by the elephant) and then justified rationally (by its rider).

The main way in which the rider (thinking) serves the elephant (affect and emotion) is by using its command of language to influence other riders, probably in an earnest attempt to get them to align their elephant with yours. After all, the only reason why we have moral positions is to affirm our rightful place in society. And so we spend endless hours on the internet, pushing our post-hoc rationalisations in the hope that some sort of herd behaviour would coalesce around our elephant.

But we are nearly always disappointed with the results, mainly because we shouldn’t actually be talking to the other riders — let’s face it, they are just as much along for the ride as you are. That’s not to say that a fruitful, rational exchange of views is impossible; it’s just far more likely that an impasse will result, with both parties seemingly unmoved by the other’s reasoning no matter how airtight it may be. How often, for example, have you found yourself dealing with an individual who is clearly out of his or her depth but who doggedly refuses to back down (‘tis but a scratch)? How often have you written to your MP pointing out the obvious folly of net zero, only to be fobbed off with a boilerplate response that allows for no nuance or balance? Often a supposedly moral or ethical position is maintained long after the individual concerned has run out of rational ways to defend it (it seems that reason is cheap but emotional attachment is sacrosanct). The bottom line is that the elephants are in charge and so, to get anywhere, you would be far better off appealing directly to the elephant.

The idea that rational debate is likely to fail when strongly held moral positions are at stake is well-known to psychologists. Consequently, the internet is loaded with expert observations as to how this plays out when the subject is climate change. However, you may have noticed that, despite the fact that everyone is riding their own elephant, only the climate change sceptic is deemed to be suffering from a lack of effective control. Only the climate change sceptic needs someone to have a quiet word with their elephant to help them achieve a higher plane of understanding. Take, for example, what Professor Sander van der Linden has been saying regarding the importance of manipulating affect and emotion. In one of his papers he states:

Indeed, the interactive engagement of both cognitive and emotional processing mechanisms is key to fostering more public involvement with climate change.

And according to the BBC:

He says years of research have shown him that confronting people with hard evidence is not the way to go. While it might be tempting to try to bluntly fight conspiracy theories with facts, “there’s a very high chance it backfires”.

Yes, it is obvious to van der Linden that irrationality is the exclusive domain of what he calls ‘conspiracy theorists’. But he is not alone. The IPCC has made it abundantly clear that it sees elephant whispering as the most valuable tool in its armoury, and that goes a long way towards explaining the media’s obsession with the anthropogenic contribution to extreme weather. Furthermore, in the UK we have the Behavioural Insights Team (aka the Nudge Unit) with its MINDSPACE, emphasising the importance of priming (‘our acts are often influenced by sub-conscious cues’) and affect (‘our emotional associations can powerfully shape our actions’). And I should add that Haidt is actually one of the worst culprits for singling out the climate change sceptic. Yes, they are all at it, employing every trick in the book to overcome the dogged resistance of the often intelligent but always ‘wrong-headed’ rider of the climate sceptical elephant.

This is all very well and I would be more than happy to sit back and take it on the chin, were it not for the obvious bias blind spot on display. Yes, we sceptics often are intelligent and that intelligence has provided us with the insight that we are dealing with a universal human trait here. There is absolutely no reason to believe that those on the climate alarmed side of the issue are debating sans éléphante. So for every person who is tearing their hair out with sceptics who can’t see that we are faced with an existential threat, you will find a hair-tugging sceptic who points out that there is nothing in the IPCC reports to suggest that the threat is existential. But it is not intelligence or education that determines which side of this debate you are on; it is probably the affect you experience when you reflect upon the physical risk posed by climate change as opposed to the translational risk posed by Milliband’s lunatic proposals. We can argue until we are blue in the face, but what will ultimately sway the debate is a public mood fuelled by self-interests, gut reactions and visceral fears. This is not a battle for minds but a battle for hearts. In the UK, blackouts and a ruined economy will finally settle the issue, but alas rather too late.

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February 5, 2025 at 09:03AM

Pitsford DCNN 4374 – Where is it, what is it and is it even still there?

52.30181 -0.89463 Met Office CIMO Class 4 Manual Site Installed 1/1/2018 OR MAYBE Somewhere else?

When reviewing the former record breaking Greycrook weather station in Scotland Tim Channon made the point “Curiously records or near records tend to be set followed by site cessation or sudden site change / equipment change.” I have also noted this happening and followed up this point in reviews at the subsequently closed Cheltenham and Gravesend stations. It appears this phenomenon is happening with this suspiciously multi sited Pitsford station.

This site is ranked a lowly Class 4 by the Met Office presumably only possibly due to shading as it is on a flat site and and the 30 metre exclusion zone for Class 2 is not adversely compromised as below. I find the Met Office view on sites like these very confusing. They must have their reasons but what they are seems a mystery.

The history of this site becomes more confusing. Pitsford School is a fee-paying independent school north of Northampton and similar in many ways to the Stowe school just 18 miles away. A weather station at Pitsford was originally established in 1998 with readings taken by students. The site had many “celebrity” patrons and high profile sponsors over the years and established its own “forecast service”. Ultimately the instruments were fully automated 2016. In 2018 another site at Pitsford school was then selected by the Met Office for inclusion as a MANUAL climate reporting station. So to clarify below is the now automated original site which is not the current manual site that is some 200 metres away as in the headline image.

Obviously this now automatic site on the roof of a school building could never be considered acceptable for accurate readings and by even the original Met Office unique standards would be described as “Unsatisfactory”

This is how the Met Office described the site on its Weather Observations Website .

“Met Office official recording station maintained by Pitsford Weather Centre at Pitsford School. The centre also runs an online automatic weather station providing live weather data. Click on the web link to access this data. Both the official and automatic weather stations upload data to WOW.”

There are thus two separate sites, one manual read by students and the other automatic on a building roof. What safeguards are there to avoid readings from the automatic station being simply used on the manual reports to avoid the trek (adverse weather?) down to the manual site? Quality control could be difficult to ensure.

Checking on the WOW site for current manual Pitsford readings reveals none at all since 20/1/2025. The above links are now dead, in fact all links to all sites (manual or automatic) lead nowhere. Both sites appear shutdown and there are certainly no readings available to view. I find it remarkably difficult to find this Pitsford area situation reliable and would avoid any data from it. This questionable situation did not, however, deter the Met Office from declaring records/near records from their remarkable new site.

In this article much was made of Pitsford recording the national highest temperature on 18th July 2022 at 38.2°C and going on to record the joint second highest national figure on 19th July at 40.2°C just one tenth of a degree behind Coningsby.

Oddly this latter achievement was not so highly proclaimed with the Met Office curious decision to tabulate “selected” stations rather than simply registering a list by descending temperature or locality radius etc. Pitsford was not deemed worthy of “selection” though the risible Class 5 St James’s Park in London was.

Was this option of only quoting “selected” sites in any way influenced by the observable fact that Pitsford’s readings were spuriously higher than those of its near and more reliable neighbours to north, south, east and west? Did the Met Office investigate this geographical oddity or in their willingness to find evidence to fit a theory simply not notice the discrepancy or not even consider it at all? Was the controversial record declared at Coningsby (with no public site access to view) to avoid scrutiny of this more “visible” site? 40°C was the determined threshold to break and Gringley-on-the-hill was far too inconsequential to promote.

……………………………………………………………18/7/2022…………………………..19/7/2022

Pitsford…………………………………………………38.2……………………………………40.2

Wittering……………………………………………….37.3……………………………………39.9

Woburn…………………………………………………37.1……………………………………39.6

Bedford…………………………………………………36.7…………………………………..39.5

Stowe……………………………………………………35.9…………………………………..38.7

Wallingford……………………………………………35.5…………………………………..38.0

In summary it appears the Met office chose to locate a station at this site probably known to record “hot” from the school station’s readings (the 1911 long term record high was recorded at nearby Raunds) in order to chase high readings. Whether or not this somewhat outdated but new manual site is still operational is unclear but what is certain is that its readings should definitely not contribute to the historic temperature record until such time, if ever, that its “provenance” is demonstrated. Surely the tax paying public deserve better for their money.

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February 5, 2025 at 08:59AM

Critic says ‘much speculation’ as Hansen-led paper attempts to revive the fading AMOC climate scare


Well-known alarmist James Hansen is again trying to crank up the anxiety levels of climate obsessives, with a new paper predicting a ‘likely’ oceanic nasty (AMOC shutdown) within a few decades unless more so-called action is taken by humans to supposedly control global warming. Recent studies finding the AMOC [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation] has been stable over recent decades, and that the very idea of climate ‘tipping points’ is overrated (links here), are ignored or rejected by the new paper. In addition, the recent Nikolov and Zeller paper (link here, see section 4) showing that the meaning of Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) has been badly misunderstood, is not considered, but EEI is used in the Hansen paper’s analysis which talks of a ‘point of no return’.
– – –
A study published in Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development looks at shipping aerosol emissions and the rate of global warming, says the Science Media Centre.

Dr Karsten Haustein, Climate Scientist, Leipzig University, said:

“Jim Hansen and colleagues have revisited the topic of aerosol-induced warming due to reduced shipping emissions (due to regulatory changes in 2020). It’s a more credible attempt than their last – rather disappointing – effort, but there is still much speculation involved.

“They estimate the global aerosol forcing from reduced shipping aerosols might be as high as 0.5 W/m2, which is far higher than the current estimates of 0.05-0.15 W/m2. They argue that Earth’s radiative imbalance as well as high levels absorbed solar radiation justify such assumption. Accordingly, they argue that Climate Sensitivity (temperature response after CO2 doubling in the atmosphere) might be as high as 4.5 W/m2.

“Given that Earth’s radiative imbalance has considerably come down in the 2nd half of 2024 (notwithstanding the uncertainties related to measuring the global radiative imbalance), I continue to remain skeptical of their claims. This is particularly true, as some of the extra warming could be traced to other internal factors that have not been discussed. The so-called ‘hiatus’ discussion in the 2010s should be an example of a cautionary tale. This is true all the more as we know with some certainty that CO2 and methane (CH4) forcing has continued to accelerate slightly, such that additional aerosol forcing increase is not necessarily required to explain what has happened in 2023 and 2024.

“They are correct in one aspect though: 2025 will prove whether there is more to the warming story than we thought.”
[Talkshop comment: two other scientists offer different opinions of the paper’s assertions].
. . .
‘Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?’ by James E. Hansen et al. was published in Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development at 14:00 UK time on Tuesday 4 February 2025.
DOI: 10.1080/00139157.2025.2434494

Full article here.
– – –
Image: A portion of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) [credit: R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution @ Wikipedia]
= = =
From the abstract of the Hansen et al paper:

Polar climate change has the greatest long-term effect on humanity, with impacts accelerated by the jump in global temperature. We find that polar ice melt and freshwater injection onto the North Atlantic Ocean exceed prior estimates and, because of accelerated global warming, the melt will increase. As a result, shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely within the next 20-30 years, unless actions are taken to reduce global warming – in contradiction to conclusions of IPCC. If AMOC is allowed to shut down, it will lock in major problems including sea level rise of several meters – thus, we describe AMOC shutdown as the “point of no return.”

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February 5, 2025 at 08:58AM

Ebb Tide in Texan Oilfields

David Archibald

To recap, peak oil was supposed to happen in 2005. Then the tight oil boom started and the civilisational party went on for another 20 years. That boom began in North Dakota but reached its full flower in the Permian Basin of Texas. One county in Texas though suggests the party is over. Howard County’s production decline is faster than its rise: 

Figure 1: Howard County Oil and Gas Production

Gas production is converted to its energy equivalent in barrels of oil at the rate of 6,000 cubic feet of gas per barrel of oil. Production peaked 18 months ago in July 2023.

Meanwhile Texas’ total oil production continued to rise:

Figure 2: The 11 largest oil-producing counties in Texas and total production in Texas

The explanation for Howard County’s departure from the pack is found in the following graph of the evolution in the ratio of gas production to oil production. To have such an abrupt change of trend, from a meandering rise changing to a straight-line decline in oil production accompanied by a blowout in the gas to oil ratio means that there is an underlying process that is happening county-wide:

Figure 3: Howard County Gas/Oil Ratio 2010 – 2024

In these tight oil fields, the pressure that drives oil out of the ground comes from thermal cracking of longer chain hydrocarbons. Because of the lack of permeability, the oil generated is trapped in the rock at higher than hydrostatic pressure. Some methane is also produced and is in solution in the oil. After being drilled and fracked and brought into production, the pressure in the reservoir starts falling and at some stage falls below the bubble point at which gas comes out of solution and forms bubbles. The tiny bubbles of methane are slipperier than oil and so travel through the rock faster. In turn this means that gas is produced preferentially to oil and the pressure decline in the reservoir accelerates in a positive feedback loop.

It seems that the bubble point in Howard County was reached in July 2023. Since that break of trend, Howard County’s oil production rate has been declining 150,000 barrels per day or 40% per annum:

Figure 4: Howard County Daily Oil and Gas Production

Howard County’s oil production tipped over into decline 18 months ago while gas production went sideways. Gas production is now also declining rapidly.

The relationship seen between the gas/oil ratio and production trend in Howard County also holds for some of Texas’ other major producing counties. The methodology can also used as a predictive tool, starting with Midland County.

Figure 5: Midland County Gas/Oil Ratio 2010 – 2024

While not as definitive as Howard County, the gas/oil ratio in Midland County has broken its lower bound.

Figure 6: Midland County Oil and Gas production 2010 – 2024

Midland County’s oil and gas production profiles have diverged whereas in Howard County oil production fell as gas production went sideways.

Figure 7: Midland County Daily Oil Production 2010 – 2024

Howard County’s production decline for the last 12 months has been 40% or 151,000 barrels per day. Applying a decline of 30% per annum to Midland County’s production profile results in a production decline of 185,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months.

Figure 8: Martin County Gas/Oil Ratio 2010 – 2024

Martin County is the second largest oil-producing county in Texas after Midland. This chart of Martin County’s gas/oil ratio shows a clear break of uptrend. 

Figure 9: Martin County Oil and Gas Production 2010 – 2024

As is seen in Midland County profile, gas production has diverged from oil production with gas production increasing due to a high gas/oil ratio despite falling oil production.

Figure 10: Martin County Oil Production 2010 – 2024

Now that Martin County’s oil production has tipped over into decline and applying a annual decline rate of 30%, production is projected to decline 190,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months.

Summary

President Trump has undertaken to increase US oil production by three million barrels per day. That is a heroic undertaking given that he is facing a headwind of a half million barrel per day decline from three counties in Texas alone.

My advice to the President is to start talking about a plutonium breeder reactor rollout combined with synthetic fuel production by applying the Bergius process to the country’s coal reserves. Energy for the electrolysis to produce the necessary hydrogen for the Bergius plants would come from the nuclear reactors. Everyone would be happy in that there would be nuclear, hydrogen and coal all in the one solution.

The President’s pick for Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, is particularly promising in that he is invested in a plutonium breeder reactor startup called Oklo. This suggests that he has a complete understanding of what is needed.

David Archibald is the author of The Anticancer Garden in Australia.


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February 5, 2025 at 08:06AM