Essay by Eric Worrall

Sell your automobile or the snakes will get you?

Venomous snakes likely to migrate en masse amid global heating, says study

Researchers find many countries unprepared for influx of new species and will be vulnerable to bites

Neelima Vallangi Fri 3 May 2024 19.35 AEST

Climate breakdown is likely to lead to the large-scale migration of venomous snake species into new regions and unprepared countries, according to a study.

The researchers forecast that Nepal, Niger, Namibia, China, and Myanmar will gain the most venomous snake species from neighbouring countries under a heating climate.

Low-income countries in south and south-east Asia, as well as parts of Africa, will be highly vulnerable to increased numbers of snake bites, according to the findings published in the journal Lancet Planetary Health.

The study modelled the geographical distribution of 209 venomous snake species that are known to cause medical emergencies in humans to understand where different snake species might find favourable climatic conditions by 2070.

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Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/03/venomous-snakes-migrate-global-heating-study

The abstract of the study;

Climate change-related distributional range shifts of venomous snakes: a predictive modelling study of effects on public health and biodiversity

Summary

Background

Climate change is expected to have profound effects on the distribution of venomous snake species, including reductions in biodiversity and changes in patterns of envenomation of humans and domestic animals. We estimated the effect of future climate change on the distribution of venomous snake species and potential knock-on effects on biodiversity and public health.

Methods

We built species distribution models based on the geographical distribution of 209 medically relevant venomous snake species (WHO categories 1 and 2) and present climatic variables, and used these models to project the potential distribution of species in 2070. We incorporated different future climatic scenarios into the model, which we used to estimate the loss and gain of areas potentially suitable for each species. We also assessed which countries were likely to gain new species in the future as a result of species crossing national borders. We integrated the species distribution models with different socioeconomic scenarios to estimate which countries would become more vulnerable to snakebites in 2070.

Findings

Our results suggest that substantial losses of potentially suitable areas for the survival of most venomous snake species will occur by 2070. However, some species of high risk to public health could gain climatically suitable areas for habitation. Countries such as Niger, Namibia, China, Nepal, and Myanmar could potentially gain several venomous snake species from neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the combination of an increase in climatically suitable areas and socioeconomic factors (including low-income and high rural populations) means that southeast Asia and Africa (and countries including Uganda, Kenya, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand in particular) could have increased vulnerability to snakebites in the future, with potential effects on public human and veterinary health.

Interpretation

Loss of venomous snake biodiversity in low-income countries will affect ecosystem functioning and result in the loss of valuable genetic resources. Additionally, climate change will create new challenges to public health in several low-income countries, particularly in southeast Asia and Africa. The international community needs to increase its efforts to counter the effects of climate change in the coming decades.

Funding

German Research Foundation, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España, European Regional Development Fund.

Read more: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00005-6/fulltext

Models all the way down.

In venomous snake filled Australia, we’ve developed a very simple solution to the snake threat: Buy a cat.

Greens complain about house cats decimating the local wildlife, and this complaint is largely true.

But one of the forms of wildlife cats are really keen on killing is venomous snakes. They like the taste. So most of us tolerate the occasional endangered bird being dragged through the cat door, in return for almost total protection from animals which could kill us or our kids.

Did I mention cats are really popular in my part of Australia? My cat got plenty of treats and fuss a few years ago when it saved me from a snake.

The snake unexpectedly fell off the rafters of an outdoor patio area onto my table, landing just behind my laptop.

The snake didn’t hang about, it was much too worried about getting away from the cat. Though to be fair it probably climbed into the rafters in the first place because my cat was stalking it. The snake got away on that occasion, though the snake was badly wounded – the cat clawed and bit it, but the snake managed to slip through a crack in a fence where the cat couldn’t follow.

Of course, encounters between snakes and cats are less common in an urban environment, my snake encounter occurred when I was living on an acreage property. Snakes aren’t the smartest animals, but they know what cats smell like, and usually stay well away from anywhere heavily frequented by their ancient enemy.

I’m not sure how popular house cats are in the nations named in the study, but I bet they will become a lot more popular if a venomous snake threat emerges, whatever the cause.