Hurricane Harvey: Who Made The Best Forecasts?

The 12 year drought of major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. is over, with catastrophic impacts in Texas. Predictions of Hurricane Harvey illustrate the realization of extended- and long-range hurricane forecasts.

This blog post analyzes the forecasts of Hurricane Harvey made by my company Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), and also by the National Hurricane Center.

The models included in this analysis are:

ECMWF: 15 day HRES and ENS, and monthly (ENS extended)
NOAA: 15 day GFS and GEFS
NHC: HWRF, HMON
CFAN: calibrated tracks and intensities for ECMWF and NOAA models

The images of tracks and intensities from the NOAA GEFS and ECMWF shown here are CFAN’s calibrated tracks and intensities. For further information about CFAN’s tropical cyclone forecast products and methods, see [link].

Hurricane Harvey – overview

An extensive summary Hurricane Harvey is provided by the Wikipedia:

Hurricane Harvey is a currently active tropical cyclone that recently made landfall in the US state of Texas as a Category 4 hurricane. It is the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Wilma in 2005, ending a record 12-year period with no storms making landfall in the U.S. as a major hurricane.

Harvey developed from a tropical wave to the east of the Lesser Antilles on August 17. Upon entering the Caribbean Sea, Harvey began to weaken due to moderate wind shear and degenerated into a tropical wave early on August 19. [Harvey redeveloped] over the Bay of Campeche on August 23. Harvey then began to rapidly intensify on August 24, re-gaining tropical storm status and becoming a hurricane later that day. Harvey’s intensification phase stalled slightly overnight from August 24–25, however Harvey soon resumed strengthening and became a Category 4 hurricane late on August 25. Hours later, Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas, at peak intensity.

The story of Hurricane Harvey is not yet over, as it continues to produce catastrophic rainfall in Texas and seems likely to re-enter the Gulf for some intensification and 2nd landfall in Texas or Louisiana.