Schneefan here reports that the Alps are seeing heavy snowfall down to 1800 meters elevation: live-video.

And if there’s a sure sign that fall is arriving in Europe, it is that the Zugspitze, Germany’s highest peak, is forecasting snow for the next 7 consecutive days:

Source: http://ift.tt/2esPYVW

Some may be asking what remains ahead for Europe over the next few months: Can we expect more warm summerlike weather, or should we expect a chilly fall?

Looking at the NOAA CFSv2 weather model for the coming 3 months, signs point to a colder than normal season (click to enlarge).

Meteociel/CFS projection made on August 30th, temperature deviation from the mean at 850 hPa (approx. 1500m) in Europe for fall 2017. Source: http://ift.tt/2esGvO4. 

Frigid winter?

The projection for the coming European 2017/2018 winter for now looks frigid:

Meteociel/CFS made on August 30th, temperature deviation from the mean at 850 hPa (approx. 1500m) in Europe for winter 2017/18. Source: http://ift.tt/2esGvO4.

What’s behind the frigid forecast? Schneefan explains:

At the end of August in Eastern Siberia there was an unusual snowfall, which led to widespread power outages and the enactment of a state of emergency.

Early snowfall in Siberia often indicate a higher likelihood of harsher European winters. Do keep in mind, however, that seasonal forecasts are fraught with uncertainty.

Another factor that bodes ill is that solar activity has since entered into a quiet phase. Studies have shown that European winters tend to be harsher during periods of low solar activity.

Arctic sea ice “death spiral” dies

Arctic sea ice area is currently at the mean of the past decade or so. This means that Arctic sea ice has pretty much stabilized at a low level and does not show signs of shrinking further over the mid-term. The once claimed Arctic sea ice “death spiral” has lost its life.

Greenland snow and ice mass “embarrassment”

Joe Bastardi at the latest Weatherbell Analytics Saturday Summary also looks at the situation in Greenland, which has not been getting any mention from the global warming weather-ambulance-chasing alarmists lately.

Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. Source: DMI here.

In his video, the 40-year veteran meteorologist says Greenland snow and ice mass balance is “way, way, way above normal” and that it is the “climate story nobody is talking about it because it’s an embarrassment given what was being said two years ago, really“.

via NoTricksZone

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September 2, 2017 at 09:51AM

By Paul Homewood

http://ift.tt/2gs3mOn

Strange goings on onboard Pen Hadow’s little expedition.

You may recall what he said when he announced on Aug 30th they were turning back south:

A meeting of the four skippers was held led by Erik de Jong, with Pen Hadow present, and it was agreed further northward progress would increase considerably the risks to the expedition, with very limited scientific reward. The decision to head south, back to an area of less concentrated sea ice in the vicinity of 79 degrees 30 minutes North, was made at 18.30 (Alaskan time).

http://ift.tt/2eH7J49

But since they turned around, they have been travelling at a rate of knots well south of their intended stopping point, and are now at 78 degrees 05 minutes and still running at 5 knots.

Throughout the expedition, Hadow has stressed that the scientific aspects of the trip were just as important as the aim of reaching the North Pole, and that the researchers wanted to carry out their work as far north as possible and be given as much time as they could.

So why have not they stopped at 79N, as intended, to allow the scientists to resume their work?

Could it be that ice conditions are much worse there than we have been led to believe?

Intriguingly, there has been no more news on their blog since Wednesday’s announcement, and nothing has appeared on Facebook either. In particular, no photos or film have been published.

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

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September 2, 2017 at 08:39AM

By Paul Homewood

http://ift.tt/2cJwudk

Contrary to popular myth, summer sea ice extent in the Arctic is not in a death spiral.

As the above DMI graph shows, August extent has been remarkably stable since 2007.

Back in March, the “experts” were telling us that the record low extent last winter would inevitably lead to lower summer extent.

For instance, Rick Thoman the climate science manager for the National Weather Service’s Alaska region told us:

“If we are starting out very low that gives a jump on the melt season. For the last few years, we have had extremely low ice cover in the summer. That means a lot more solar energy absorbed by the darker open water. That heat tends to carry over from year to year.”

NSIDC’s Ted Scambos said:

“Thin ice and beset by warm weather – not a good way to begin the melt season,”

Prof Julienne Stroeve, at University College London added:

“Such thin ice going into the melt season sets us up for the possibility of record low sea-ice conditions this September.”

In fact the opposite was true. Reduced ice cover in the winter does not lead to more solar energy absorbed by the darker open water, as there is virtually no sun at that time of year. Instead the open water quickly loses heat to the atmosphere, and eventually into space.

We saw the effect of that in action when ice extent quickly returned to the level of the last few years during spring.

With only a couple of weeks to go till likely minimum, ice extent is still running above that of the last two years, and barring a major storm will stay that way.

http://ift.tt/1rHOB63

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

http://ift.tt/2esxVPm

September 2, 2017 at 08:39AM

Overall, initial figures suggest that Greenland may have gained a small amount of ice over the 2016-17 year.

Guest post: How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2017 | Carbon Brief

Antarctica is also gaining ice.

NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses | NASA

Greenland and Antarctica are both gaining ice, yet experts say sea level rise is accelerating. They must believe in an extraterrestrial source of water.

via The Deplorable Climate Science Blog

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September 2, 2017 at 07:17AM