Reality Check: Are hurricanes getting worse?

Track of Hurricane Harvey [image credit: Overlord / Wikipedia]

Looks like a fairly sober BBC analysis from weather forecaster Chris Fawkes, avoiding some of the more extravagant climate claims the BBC is sometimes guilty of.

The past year has been a busy one for hurricanes.

There were 17 named storms in 2017, 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes (category 3 or higher) – an above average year in each respect.

The 10 hurricanes formed consecutively, without weaker tropical storms interrupting the sequence.

The only other time this has been recorded was in 1893.

Are these storms getting worse? And does climate change have anything to do with it?

A year of records
This Atlantic hurricane season has been particularly bad.

There was Harvey, which pummelled the United States in August.

It brought the largest amount of rain on record from any tropical system – 1,539mm.

It caused the sort of flooding you’d expect to see once every 500 years, causing $200bn of damage to Houston, Texas.

Ironically, this was the third such “one every 500 years” flood Houston had suffered in three years.

September brought Irma, which devastated Caribbean communities. It was the joint second strongest Atlantic hurricane ever, with sustained winds of 185mph.

Those winds were sustained for 37 hours – longer than any tropical system on record, anywhere in the world.

Next came Hurricane Maria – another category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 175mph – which destroyed Puerto Rico’s power grid.

Finally, Hurricane Ophelia span past Portugal and Spain – the farthest east any major Atlantic hurricane has ever gone.

Despite this, 2017 wasn’t the worst year in some key respects.

It didn’t produce the strongest storm – that was Hurricane Allen in 1980, with sustained winds of 190mph.

Nor did it have the greatest number of storms – that was 2005, which saw an incredible 28 named storms, including seven major hurricanes. One of them was the infamous Hurricane Katrina.

But 2017 was probably the costliest. Estimates for the cost of the hurricane season vary and continue to be revised, ranging up to $385bn.

By comparison, 2005 racked up $144bn in damage according to the National Hurricane Center – about $180bn today, adjusted for inflation.

It has certainly been a bad year. But over time, are hurricanes getting worse?

Continued here.