FAIL: NOAA’s winter climate outlook claimed ‘warmer than normal’ temperature

Global warming/climate change advocates want us to believe that computer models will accurately predict temperature out to the year 2100, yet NOAA, which uses computer models to predict the next seasonal outlook, couldn’t even get that right. The north, northeast, and deep south have been in a deep freeze, with blizzard like conditions, and well below normal temperatures. Temperature records have fallen all over the eastern half of the USA in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, advocates of global warming/climate change certainty, such as Al Gore and Michael Mann, took advantage of the cold snap and said have said “that’s exactly what we should expect from the climate crisis“.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, reality bites for NOAA’s short term climate prediction.

From climate.gov, excerpts of their prediction in October.


Both the temperature and precipitation outlooks lean on typical La Niña impacts, particularly those of the past 30 years, and bear some resemblance to the outlooks issued for last winter (not surprisingly since the forecast guidance is similar – more on that below). In the image above, the winter precipitation outlook favors below-normal precipitation across the entire southern U. S., with probabilities greatest (exceeding 50%) along the eastern Gulf Coast to the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, and southern South Carolina. In contrast, above-average precipitation is more likely across much of the northern parts of the country, in the northern Rockies, around the Great Lakes, in Hawaii, and western Alaska.

Places where the forecast odds favor a much colder than usual winter (blue colors) or much warmer than usual winter (red), or where the probability of a cold winter, a warm winter, or a near-normal winter are all equal (white). The darker the color, the stronger the chance of that outcome (not the bigger the departure from average). Click image for version that includes Alaska and Hawaii. NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data from NOAA CPC.

The temperature outlook shown above indicates above-average temperatures across the southern US, extending northward out West through the central Rockies and all the way up to Maine in the eastern part of the nation. Above-average temperatures are also favored in Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska. Chances are greatest in an area extending from the desert Southwest to central and southern Texas and Louisiana (greater than 50%).

Probabilities are tilted toward colder-than-normal temperatures along the northern tier from the Pacific Northwest to Minnesota and also in southeastern Alaska. However, the likelihood of below-average temperatures across the North is modest, with no probabilities in these regions reaching 50%.

Places where the forecast odds favor a much drier than usual winter (brown colors) or much wetter than usual winter (blue-green), or where the probability of a dry winter, a wet winter, or a near-normal winter are all equal (white). The darker the color, the stronger the chance of that outcome (not the bigger the departure from average). Click image for version that includes Alaska and Hawaii. NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data from NOAA CPC.

 

Read the full outlook here


Surprisingly, the much maligned (as being with skill according to most NOAA meteorologists) Farmers Almanac got it somewhat right with the headline:

WINTER OUTLOOK 2017–2018: COLDER THAN LAST YEAR

Overall, the long-range winter forecast for 2017–2018 shows generally colder temperatures than last winter for the U.S. and Canada but not colder than a typical winter, based on historical averages.

However, their national forecast map didn’t really do justice to the cold wave we’ve seen.

The result is that 2017–18 winter temperatures will be colder than last winter, they will likely still be above normal in the eastern and north-central states, with below-normal temperatures the rule from the Gulf States westward to California and from the Intermountain region westward to the Pacific Northwest.

The reality has been quite different than the climate forecasts.

Arctic air brings bone-chilling temperatures to US (CNN)

Arctic Outbreak Was One of the Coldest on Record For Late December Into Early January (TWC)

Parts of the central and eastern U.S. experienced one of their coldest late December through early January periods on record.

Dozens of other cities from the northern Rockies to Texas to the Great Lakes and East Coast had at least a top-five-coldest two-week stretch ending Jan. 5, according to the SERCC.

Dec. 23, 2017 through Jan. 5, 2018 temperature rankings, relative to other such periods. Cities in purple boxes denote those that had at least a top five coldest Dec. 23 through Jan. 5 period on record in 2017-2018.

According to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center, (SERCC) the following cities shivered through their record-coldest Dec. 23-Jan. 5 stretch:

  • Bangor, Maine
  • Worcester, Massachusetts
  • Buffalo, New York
  • Flint, Michigan
  • Green Bay, Wisconsin
  • Duluth, Minnesota
  • Rockford, Illinois
  • Waterloo, Iowa
  • Lincoln, Nebraska

While winter is not yet over, and a warm-up is forecast for mid-week as the jet-stream changes, forecaster Joe Bastardi suggests that we’ll see more below normal weather soon afterwards.

via Watts Up With That?

http://ift.tt/2CNS1l6

January 7, 2018 at 12:20PM

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