Fossil Fuels To Remain Dominant– UK Energy Projections

By Paul Homewood



A few more thoughts on the latest Energy & Emissions Projections.




Final energy consumption is going to change very little in the next couple of decades:



According to BEIS:

Final energy demand is projected to be 134 Mtoe in 2025, 3% lower than in 2016. It is then projected to increase again after 2025, as the effects of included policies diminish and macroeconomic drivers continue to increase demand. Projected final energy demand is projected to increase by 2% in 2035 compared to 2016.


It is particularly significant that electricity/biofuels are expected to make very little inroad into transport.

Over the 2017 to 2035 period, the share of electricity in the transport mix rises only very slightly from 0.8% to 3.2%.

It certainly does not sound as if the government is very confident about the uptake of EVs.


In terms of primary energy, perhaps the most significant projection is that oil/gas will only fall slightly, from 149 Mtoe to 129 Mtoe between now and 2035.

Even at the end of the period, fossil fuels will still be supplying 68.9% of the UK’s energy.

It seems the demise of Big Oil has been put on hold!



Renewable energy’s share rise from 10.4% to 15.0%, and nuclear’s from 7.3% to 14.5%.


You may have noticed that the BEIS has used different scales on the Y-axis above, which gives a misleading impression.

Below shows what the energy mix will look like in 2035, something BEIS apparently don’t want you to see:




Despite subsidies running into hundreds of billions, renewable energy will still only be supplying 15% of the total by 2035.

It makes you wonder just what we will have got for all that money.


January 12, 2018 at 10:09AM

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