Guest post by David Middleton
Some people look forward to the Oscars, others look forward to the Super Bowl… I look forward to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)… Kind of like Navin Johnson looked forward to the new phone books…
Well… AEO 2018 was no disappointment!
Full Release Date: February 6, 2018 | Next Release Date: February 2019 | full report
EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook provides modeled projections of domestic energy markets through 2050, and it includes cases with different assumptions regarding macroeconomic growth, world oil prices, technological progress, and energy policies. Strong domestic production coupled with relatively flat energy demand allow the United States to become a net energy exporter over the projection period in most cases. In the Reference case, natural gas consumption grows the most on an absolute basis, and nonhydroelectric renewables grow the most on a percentage basis.
Even though Obama is out and energy dominance is in, they still feel the need to throw bone to wind & solar:
In the Reference case, natural gas consumption grows the most on an absolute basis, and nonhydroelectric renewables grow the most on a percentage basis.
After downloading the PowerPoint and some of the Excel workbooks, I put together a summary of some key points.
Primary Energy Consumption: Fossil Fuels Dominate the Future!
While it may be true that “nonhydroelectric renewables (renewables in the table below) grow the most on a percentage basis,” growing from 7% to 12% ain’t much to brag about. Units are in quadrillion Btu (quad) and percent of total consumption:
|2017 (quad)||2017 (%)||2050 (quad)||2050 (%)|
Note that coal consumption barely declines, petroleum stays about the same and natural gas skyrockets (86’ing the Clean Power Plan was a most excellent move by President Trump). When I lump fossil fuels together, things really get cool:
|2017 (%)||2050 (%)|
In other good news, the U.S. will continue to “green the planet” at a decent pace:
|2017 Gt CO2||2050 Gt CO2|
Electricity Generation: Natural Gas Baby!
I used the data browser to break wind, offshore wind, solar PV and solar thermal out of the renewables category and found the following:
With virtually no installations of offshore wind power over the next 33 years, it looks like most Atlantic and Pacific coast governors will be disappointed.
Special Feature: Milton Friedman on Energy in 1978
Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…
Just as true today as it was 40 years ago. Milton Friedman…Truly… Once in a lifetime (H/T to The Talking Heads).
via Watts Up With That?
February 8, 2018 at 04:39PM