The Usual Arctic Hype

By Paul Homewood

 

The Guardian regurgitates the latest Arctic alarmism from NSIDC and DMI:

 

image

The Arctic winter has ended with more news that is worrying even the scientists who watch the effects of climate change closely.

The region experienced its warmest winter on record. Sea ice hit record lows for the time of year, new US weather data revealed on Tuesday.

“It’s just crazy, crazy stuff,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, who has been studying the Arctic since 1982. “These heat waves – I’ve never seen anything like this.”

Experts say what’s happening is unprecedented, part of a global warming-driven cycle that probably played a role in the recent strong, icy storms in Europe and the north-eastern US.

The land weather station closest to the North Pole, at the tip of Greenland, spent more than 60 hours above freezing in February. Before this year, scientists had seen the temperature there rise above freezing in February only twice before, and then extremely briefly. Last month’s record-high temperatures have been more like those typical of May, said Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute.

Of nearly three dozen different Arctic weather stations, 15 of them were at least 10F (5.6C) above normal for the winter.

“The extended warmth really has staggered all of us,” Mottram said.

In February, Arctic sea ice covered 5.4m sq miles, about 62,000 sq miles smaller than last year’s record low, the ice data center reported, and it was 521,000 square miles below the 30-year normal.

Sea ice is frozen ocean water that, in contrast to icebergs and glaciers, forms, grows and melts on the ocean. It is still growing, but “whatever we grow now is going to be thin stuff” that easily melts in the summer, Serreze said.

Something similar has been noted in the Pacific with open water on the normally iced-up Bering Sea, said the data center senior scientist Walt Meier. To be happening on opposite sides of the Arctic at the same time was unusual, he added.

“Climate change is the overriding thing,” Meier said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/arctic-warmest-winter-record-climate-change

 

So, let’s take a close look at the claims:

1) The region experienced its warmest winter on record

In reality, there is little or no data for most of the Arctic:

201712

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/global-maps/201712?products[]=map-land-sfc-mntp#global-maps-select

 

Most of the stations, which they do have, don’t have proper long term records, such as Cape Morris Jesup, (that red blotch in NE Greenland), which only has data since 1980.

 

DMI calculate Arctic temperatures, but these are not actual but the results of reanalysis.

This winter shows that temperatures have been above average, with that spike a week or so ago that drove ridiculous “unprecedented” headlines.

meanT_2018

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php 

However, above average temperatures of this sort of proportion are not unusual in Arctic winter, For instance, we saw similar weather in 1972 and 1976:

 

meanT_1972

meanT_1976

 

But what the alarmists never tell us is that the DMI record only begins after 1954, and consequently does not reflect the much warmer climate in the 1930s and 40s.

If we look at the SW Greenland Temperature Series, one of the few long running datasets for the Arctic, we find that winter temperatures were just as high in the 1920s to 40s.

image

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/greenland/

 

Although the Series ends in 2013, GISS data confirms that winters since have actually gotten colder.

Greenland, of course, is one of the regions supposedly hit by the “Arctic Heatwave” this winter.

 

2) Experts say what’s happening is unprecedented, part of a global warming-driven cycle that probably played a role in the recent strong, icy storms in Europe and the north-eastern US

There is zero evidence that “global warming” has played any role at all Arctic temperatures or recent cold weather in Europe and the US.

Indeed, there is no evidence at all that recent cold weather has been in any way unusual, for instance in the UK. And in the US, NOAA’s heavily adjusted database maintains that temperatures in the Northeast in January were average:

 

canvas

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/regional/time-series/101/tavg/1/1/1895-2018?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

 

3) The land weather station closest to the North Pole, at the tip of Greenland, spent more than 60 hours above freezing in February. Before this year, scientists had seen the temperature there rise above freezing in February only twice before, and then extremely briefly. Last month’s record-high temperatures have been more like those typical of May, said Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute.

What Mottram forgets to mention is that they only started collecting data at this station, Cape Morris, in 1980.

Claims of “record highs” are meaningless, as she must know. Such claims, designed purely as headline material for gullible journalists, shame the integrity of climate science.

 

4) In February, Arctic sea ice covered 5.4m sq miles, about 62,000 sq miles smaller than last year’s record low, the ice data center reported, and it was 521,000 square miles below the 30-year normal

 

According to DMI, sea ice extent in the Arctic has barely changed in the last decade. Sea ice in most of the basin is also much thicker now.

 

CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180228

CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20080228

 

 

 

All of these alarmist claims are centred around the fact that Arctic temperatures have risen since the late 1970s, some of the coldest years of the 20thC.

 image

 https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show.cgi?id=620040300000&dt=1&ds=5

 

It’s time to end the scam.

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

http://ift.tt/2HdZgkI

March 8, 2018 at 07:15AM

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: