NFU’s Guy Smith’s Latest Fake Climate Claims

By Paul Homewood


After complaining about “early springs” for long enough, the Guardian are moaning about how damaging the delayed start to spring is this year. And guess what, it’s down to climate change!



Last year, asparagus growers were harvesting as early as 8 April. This spring, they are not expecting to harvest their open-field crop until the last week of April – a week later than the official start of the season, St George’s Day, 23 April. Welcome to just one of the consequences of Britain’s disastrously delayed spring.

“We have had a very challenging time,” said Guy Smith, vice president of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU). “March breezed in with the ‘beast from the east’ and went out with the worst bank holiday on record.” For asparagus-lovers there is at least an upside. “The combination has to be right for the crowns to push through,” explained Per Hogberg, of grower Wealmoor. “The air temperature has to be at least 12C, while the soil temperature should be between 8C and 10C. With warmer weather expected, consumers can expect a bumper crop in mid-May,” he said.

It is not just asparagus growers praying for a warm, dry spell. The earlier farmers can sow, the more chance their crops have to achieve their potential. “My father was a farmer and one of his sayings was ‘a peck of dust in March was worth a king’s ransom’,” Smith said. “If the ground is nice and friable and makes a good seed-bed then it can be potentially quite lucrative for the farmer. Well, that’s gone this year.”

Farmers griping about the weather goes with the job. But Smith fears something is happening to Britain’s weather that has consequences which stretch far beyond farming.

“We farm in north-east Essex, in the driest spot in the British Isles, and so we’re keen observers of the British weather. More often now we seem to be stuck in long periods of wet months and then long periods of dry months, which is more challenging for farmers.”


Guy Smith has a history on Notalotofpeopleknowthat. Four years ago, I caught him out making fake claims about extreme weather in East Anglia, which were easily disproved.

As NFU Vice President, his roles include “Renewables and climate change”, and he seems to make a habit of making fake claims, presumably to justify his existence.

He is also on the Advisory Board of Richard Black’s ECIU.

He is clearly one of these types with an overinflated sense of self importance, who will say and do anything to attract attention.

So what about these latest claims?

Let’s start by looking at some of the basic rainfall stats for East Anglia, where Guy Smith farms:











Clearly there are no discernible trends, either annually or seasonally. In particular, there is no evidence of rainfall extremes growing, whether dry or wet.

But what about his specific claims that more often now we seem to be stuck in long periods of wet months and then long periods of dry months.


Analysis of the most extreme wet and dry months shows that there is nothing at all about recent weather.





As for those “long periods of wet months and dry months”, we can test this by looking at 3-month running averages of rainfall:



His claim is not supported by the data, which on the contrary shows just how stable East Anglia’s climate is, and has been over the last century.

It goes without saying that farmers have always been vulnerable to the weather. But they face no more problems now in East Anglia than their ancestors did in the past.

But to Guy Smith, facts like these do not matter. He would rather make up fake claims to support his global warming agenda.


April 24, 2018 at 09:37AM

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