The Met Office’s Adam Scaife’s claim that he forecast the Beast from the East, and warned the government about it, is completely untrue.
Readers will recall the claim in The Times in March that the Met Office’s Adam Scaife had alerted ministers about the “Beast from the East” nearly a month before it happened:
Britain’s freezing “Beast from the East” exploded into life thousands of miles away, in the tropical waters of the western Pacific — and ministers were warned that it was coming a month ago.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, briefed the Cabinet Office four weeks ago, warning of a freeze. He was confident enough to stock up his home with extra supplies.
“I got extra oil, food and logs in, knowing this was coming,” he said last week.
His warning came after his team spotted a massive storm system moving east from the Indian to the Pacific oceans. Its effects rippled out, generating weather systems from the Pacific to the Arctic, warming the stratosphere, 20 miles above the North Pole, by 50C in two days.
The result was a zone of high pressure across the Atlantic so big that the jet stream, the wind that brings warm Atlantic weather to Britain, went into reverse, blanketing the UK in Siberian winds. “We recognised the pattern because we’d seen it before,” Scaife said. “The same thing caused the freezes of February 2009 and 2013.
The Beast, of course, was the spell of exceptionally cold and snowy weather to hit pretty much the whole of Britain between around 26th Feb and 3rd March.
At the time, I was highly dubious about Scaife’s claim, because it did not tally with any forecasts from the Met Office around that time.
So I contacted the Cabinet Office to ask for a copy of Scaife’s supposed briefing. They replied that they had received no such briefing, as I reported on 29th March:
Unwilling to let go of my bone, I FOI’d the Met Office for a copy of Scaife’s briefing. Here’s what they replied:
Their account tallies with the Cabinet Office’s, that the Scaife briefing never existed. The only forecast sent by the Met Office to the government was the 3-Month Outlook, on 26th January.
But as I pointed out on 18th March, that 3-Month Outlook most certainly did not forecast the Beast, or more significantly the SSW event which caused it, as Scaife tried to claim.
via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
May 7, 2018 at 12:50PM