In two new papers, scientists affirm a strong connection between solar activity and the Earth’s climate, as temperatures are said to be 3 times more sensitive to solar forcing than CO2 forcing. With the advent of a grand minimum in the coming decades, a consequent “dampening” of temperatures (and slowing of sea level rise) is expected. Between 2000 and 2100, surface temperatures are only expected to warm by a total of about 1.1°C, a climate change that may ultimately be beneficial.
“The effect of the Sun’s activity on Earth’s climate has been identified since the 1800s. However, there are still many unknowns regarding the mechanisms connecting the Earth’s climate to the variation in solar irradiance. Climate modelling that implements the solar sciences is a novel approach that accounts for the considerable effect that natural factors have on the climate, especially at regional level. This paper discusses the noticeable effect that planet oscillations have on the Sun’s activity, which gives a very good correlation with the observed patterns in global surface temperatures, rainfall records and sea levels.”
“A clear 60-year cycle has been identified in many studies, and in accordance with this, it is expected that temperatures will reach a trough of the cycle around 2030-2040. This is in agreement with the forecasted low sunspot activity that is usually linked to lower temperatures.”
“Furthermore, considering the influence of the Solar Inertial Motion, a solar slowdown is predicted for Solar Cycles 24 and 25, which will create a weak grand minimum. It is anticipated that this weak grand minimum will be reflected in a dampening effect of global temperatures, and a subsequent moderation in the rate of sea level rise.”
“The TCR [transient climate response] to doubled CO2 is less than 2K (1.93 ± 0.26K). Only 1.1 K of HadCRUT4 warming is expected between 2000 and 2100AD. ∼35% of the warming during 1980–2001 was from solar variability, by 2 different analyses.”
“Temperature is nearly 3 times as sensitive to solar radiation as to CO2 radiation. A model for ocean warming estimates equilibrium sensitivity as 15% greater than TCR [transient climate sensitivity].”
June 11, 2018 at 09:05AM