Another Warming ‘Hole’? Observations Show The North Atlantic COOLED By -0.8°C/Century Since 1800s


In a new paper, scientists document another long-term cooling trend, this time in the North Atlantic’s sea surface temperatures.  Characterized as yet another stubborn “warming hole” in the anthropogenic “global” warming (AGW) narrative, the cooling trend amounts to “0.8 K century-1” and does not follow expectations outlined in models of  global-scale warming.


The portrayal of a globally-synchronous warming of the Earth with only small pockets of “warming hole” anomalies  is not supported by local and regional data reported in scientific papers.

In the Northern Hemisphere, for example, scientists (Kretschmer et al., 2018) have identified other “warming holes” in the temperature data for the 1990-2015 period.  About 80% of the contiguous U.S., Europe and much of Asia, including parts of the Arctic (Eastern Siberia), cooled during the 1990-2015 period, as shown here.

In the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctica has not warmed in the last 38 years.   And according to Purich et al., 2018, most of the Southern Ocean has been cooling since the late 1970s as well (as shown here).

There are not tiny, isolated holes of cooling in an otherwise uniformly-warming world.  These are gaping expanses of cooling…or non-warming.

Yes, some regions of the globe have been warming.  Some regions have been cooling.  And some regions remain trendless.

But in recent decades, the warming has not been global in scope.


Mechanisms Governing the Development of the North Atlantic

Warming Hole in the CESM-LE Future Climate Simulations

“Recent studies have documented the development of a warming deficit in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) both in observations of the current climate (Rahmstorf et al. 2015; Drijfhout et al. 2012) and in future climate simulations (Drijfhout et al. 2012; Marshall et al. 2015; Woollings et al. 2012). This ‘North Atlantic warming hole’ (NAWH) is characterized in the observed record as a region south of Greenland with negative trends in SSTs of 0.8 K century-1 (Rahmstorf et al. 2015). In fully coupled global climate model (GCM) future simulations, the NAWH is seen as a significant deficit in warming within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (Marshall et al. 2015; Winton et al. 2013; Gervais et al. 2016).  This local reduction in future warming is communicated to the overlying atmosphere and may impact atmospheric circulation (Gervais et al. 2016), including the North Atlantic storm track (Woollings et al. 2012).”

5 Other New Papers Also Document A Warming “Hole” In the North Atlantic

  1. Grieman et al., 2018

2. Nicolle et al., 2018

3.  Thornalley et al., 2018

4. Smeed et al., 2018

5. Piecuch et al., 2017

 





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June 14, 2018 at 09:48AM

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