Month: June 2018

How the Obama Administration Undermined Federal Benefit-Cost Analysis to Justify Its Climate-related Regulations

The Regan Administration made a serious effort to require that benefit-cost analysis be used to determine whether all major regulations were economically efficient. Such analyses had long been used for judging the efficiency of Federal water projects, but this was the first time that they were required for analyzing Federal regulations. The purpose was to discourage if not prevent economically inefficient regulations from being approved. Quidelines were approved and used for many years—until the Obama Administration, which was determined to promote climate alarmism and other “green” Federal regulatory interventions in the market. But they also did not want to repeal the Reagan Executive Order Order 12291 and subsequent orders derived from it perhaps because that would have been all too obvious. So they continued to require benefit-cost regulations which should have resulted in disapproval of all their favorite climate alarmist regulations had they been honestly evaluated. After all, that was the very purpose of the order–to keep economically inefficient regulations from being approved. The unfortunate result is that the Obama Administration effectively destroyed the extensive efforts by the Reagan and a number of subsequent administrations to build a framework for implementing an effective and self-regulating check on Federal regulatory activity.

Perhaps recognizing the very extensive damage that EPA had done to the regulatory benefit-cost system EPA appears to be proposing to alter its guidelines, possibly in order to make it harder to do what the Obama Administration felt it needed to do to circumvent the existing benefit-cost regulations and which were not stopped from happening by either the guardians of benefit-cost analysis within EPA or OMB. If done carefully and thoughtfully such changes may help to reduce the many unjustified procedures used by the Obama Administration to justify the unjustifiable. But even if done perfectly it will not solve the problem and do what needs to be done since a future pro-regulatory administration will have little difficulty finding other shady approaches to justify what it wants to do. All it requires is a little creative imagination and an absence of effective enforcement both inside and outside EPA.

I would advocate that EPA and OMB rebuild their existing review capability and authority in this area and restore its clout while a longer term fix is developed and agreed upon. The problem is that it is too easy for the party in power to disregard or capture the extensive cost-benefit review process (known as RIA review). Obviously this has to be tightened up. The longer term problem is that OMB is and should be a political operation to implement the President’s programs across the Federal Government so what is needed is a more independent home for ultimate RIA quality review. Some improvement could be made by strengthening the EPA review function take an active and hard stand on the review process inside EPA or even prepare the RIAs itself, But in the longer run this is not the answer. The office can be wiped out or the Director reassigned much too easily.

What is needed is a more independent group to provide real time review in EPA and OIRA in OMB of each individual proposed RIA. One possibility is to add this function to the duties of the Congressional Budget Office. The benefit-cost system used by the Federal Government has evolved over many decades and is likely to continue doing so. Treating it as a static system leads to the disaster of the Obama Administration, where there were no effective controls on using junk science and economics to prevent the gross misuse of benefit-cost analysis of climate-related regulations to justify the economically unjustifiable. I have written at some length in my book on climate concerning some of the junk science and dubious economic analysis.

So the question is what to do now. I would advocate that OMB rebuild its existing review capability and authority in this area and restore its clout while a longer term fix is developed and agreed upon. The problem is that it is too easy tor the party in power to disregard or capture the extensive cost-benefit review process (known as RIA review). Obviously this has to be tightened up. The longer term problem is that OMB is and should be a political operation to implement the President’s programs across the Federal Government so what is needed is a more independent home for ultimate RIA quality review. Obviously some improvement could be made by having offices other than the program offices, the advocates of new regulations) take an active and hard stand on the review process inside EPA or even prepare the RIAs itself, But in the longer run this is not the answer. Any review office can be wiped out or the Director reassigned much too easily if they do not “cooperate” with the Administration currently in power.

A More Independent Review a Group Is Needed

What is needed is a more independent group to provide review within EPA and in the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in OMB. One possibility might be to add this function to the duties of the Congressional Budget Office. After review by the Agency involved and OMB, RIAs would go to the CBO. They could issue a report on the soundness of the economics used in the RIA and the implications of recommended changes. The Agency and OMB could then decide what to do. If the CBO report should be unfavorable, the OMB and agency could disregard what CBO has said and proceed or decide to withdraw the proposed regulation. But the CBO report would remain on the record regardless.

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June 22, 2018 at 10:56PM

UN Climate Demand Opens the way for More Abuse of Poor Farmers

Ivory Coast ArmyIvory Coast Army

Ivory Coast Army. General Soumaila Bakayoko, Chief of Staff of the Army, conducts a review of his troops in Odienné. Note I do not know if General Bakayoko’s forces have been involved in Ivory Coast Army persecution of cocoa farmers. By ZenmanOwn work, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

If there is one climate program which should have died in a welter of shame, that programme is third world conservation programmes, programmes which have reportedly already caused mayhem in places where government backed forces have committed atrocities to drive farmers and tribes out of nature reserves.

Forests provide a critical short-term solution to climate change

22 JUN 2018

To prevent the worst consequences of climate change, we need to act now.

There is a “catastrophic climate gap” between the commitments that countries have made under the Paris Climate Agreement and the emissions reductions required to avoid the worst consequences of global warming, according to UN Environment’s Emissions Gap Report 2017.

The Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2˚ Celsius, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5˚ Celsius.

Current pledges from governments represent only about half of what would be required to avoid a 2˚C temperature rise, and just one third of what’s required to limit warming to 1.5˚C.

While this “emissions gap” is significant, UN Environment suggests it can still be closed in a cost-effective manner.

One of the major contributors to closing the gap is forests.

The good news here is that 6.3 gigatons (billion tons) of carbon dioxide emission reductions have already been reported over the past six years from forests in Brazil, Ecuador, Malaysia and Colombia alone under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), according to the UNFCCC Lima Hub. This is equivalent to more than the annual emissions of the United States.

“This is a significant step forward, showing that forests can be a central part of the solution to climate change,” says the head of the UN-REDD Programme Secretariat, Mario Boccucci. “We have an unprecedented opportunity: political will, know-how, finance. Now we need to build on progress and scale up rapidly in the coming years.”

Protecting forests, including mangroves, makes climate action cheaper and faster. We need to build the political case for this across all countries.

“The Emissions Gap Report once again underscores the urgency of redoubling our efforts to reduce emissions,” says UN Environment climate change expert Niklas Hagelberg.

“It shows that solutions exist, and if they are adopted quickly we can turn our current situation around. But with each year we wait, we make our ability to limit dangerous climate change more difficult, risky and costly.”

Read more: https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/forests-provide-critical-short-term-solution-climate-change

Even the Guardian has noted the connection between offering large cash grants to tyrants in return for declaring regions off limits to humans, and vicious attacks against people living in the affected regions;

The tribes paying the brutal price of conservation

John Vidal
Sun 28 Aug 2016 17.00 AEST

Across the world, governments are protecting habitats. But indigenous peoples are being evicted

The Botswana police helicopter spotted Tshodanyestso Sesana and his friends in the afternoon. The nine young Bushmen, or San, had been hunting antelope to feed their families, when the chopper flew towards them.

There was a burst of gunfire from the air and the young men dropped their meat and skins and fled. Largely through luck, no one was hit, but within minutes armed troops arrived in a jeep and the nine were arrested, stripped naked, beaten and then detained for several days for poaching in a nature reserve.

Welcome to 21st-century life in the vast Central Kalahari game park, an ancient hunting ground for the San, but now off-limits to the people who forged their history there. The brutal incident took place last week, just days after Botswana’s wildlife minister Tshekedi Khama, the brother of President Ian Khama, announced a shoot-on-sight policy on poachers.

Khama claims the policy, which is supported by conservation groups, will deter poaching and the illegal wildlife trade, which is widely seen by Europe and the US as disastrous for biodiversity. But there are no rare or endangered species such as elephants or rhinos in the areas where the bushmen hunt. Sending a helicopter gunship and armed guards to arraign the hunters looks rather like an escalation of the low-grade war that Botswana has waged for years on one of the most vulnerable indigenous groups in the world.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/aug/28/exiles-human-cost-of-conservation-indigenous-peoples-eco-tourism

The damage is not limited to shooting down tribespeople from helicopter gunships. In Ivory Coast, poor farmers who are trying to produce cocoa are being pressured to pay large bribes to be allowed to work their farms in “conversation areas”.

… The government of Ivory Coast took action recently against cocoa-driven deforestation by expelling cocoa farmers from Mount Péko National Park (which means “mountain of hyenas” in the local Gueré language). According to a report by Human Rights Watch and the Ivorian Coalition of Human Rights (RAIDH), the evictions were poorly planned and carried out in violation of human rights standards. When we visited Mount Péko after the eviction, we found the park once again filled with cocoa smallholders who had returned. Some smallholders explained to us that when they finally returned to Mount Péko, they simply paid the authorities higher bribes to go back to cultivating their lands in the park. …

Read more: http://www.mightyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chocolates_dark_secret_english_web.pdf

Lets see – large numbers of skilled but very poor farmers in Africa trying to make an honest living being backed into a corner, forced to pay large bribes, their families brutalised by armed thugs. Its pretty obvious what will happen next, and when it does, Western green policies will bear the ultimate blame.

via Watts Up With That?

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June 22, 2018 at 08:09PM

Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?

The short answer, is not all that well.


On June 23, 1988, NASA scientist James E. Hansen testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, where he expressed his “high degree of confidence” in “a cause-and-effect relationship between the claimed CO2 induced “greenhouse effect and observed warming.”

Hansens’s 1988 testimony – the birth of global warming as a political issue

The 30th anniversary of Mr. Hansen’s predictions affords an opportunity to see how well his forecasts have turned out.

In an article in the Wall Street Journal today,  climatologist Dr Patrick Michaels and meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue compare Hansen’s predictions to actual reality over the past 30 years. Instead of the gloom and doom we heard in 1988, we have an earth that is only moderately warmer, and closer to Hansen’s “scenario C”, the bottom graph below, which is overlaid with actual global temperature data in red.

Hansen’s fabulously wrong 1988 climate model.

Here’s some excerpts from the article by climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels and meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue:

“Thirty years of data have been collected since Mr. Hansen outlined his scenarios—enough to determine which was closest to reality. And the winner is Scenario C. Global surface temperature has not increased significantly since 2000, discounting the larger-than-usual El Niño of 2015-16. Assessed by Mr. Hansen’s model, surface temperatures are behaving as if we had capped 18 years ago the carbon-dioxide emissions responsible for the enhanced greenhouse effect. But we didn’t. And it isn’t just Mr. Hansen who got it wrong. Models devised by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have, on average, predicted about twice as much warming as has been observed since global satellite temperature monitoring began 40 years ago…”

“Several more of Mr. Hansen’s predictions can now be judged by history. Have hurricanes gotten stronger, as Mr. Hansen predicted in a 2016 study? No. Satellite data from 1970 onward shows no evidence of this in relation to global surface temperature. Have storms caused increasing amounts of damage in the U.S.? Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show no such increase in damage, measured as a percentage of gross domestic product. How about stronger tornadoes? The opposite may be true, as NOAA data offers some evidence of a decline. The list of what didn’t happen is long and tedious.”

It turns out that global surface temperature has not increased significantly since 2000, discounting the larger-than-usual El Niño of 2015-16.

And it isn’t just Hansen who got it wrong, models devised by the IPCC have, on average, predicted about twice as much warming as has been observed since global satellite temperature monitoring began 40 years ago.

What about Hansen’s other claims? He claimed that the late ’80s and ’90s would see “greater than average warming in the southeast U.S. and the Midwest.” No such spike has been measured in these regions.

In 2007, Hansen stated that most of Greenland’s ice would soon melt, raising sea levels 23 feet over the next 100 years. Subsequent research published in Nature magazine demonstrated this to be impossible.

Several more of Mr. Hansen’s predictions fizzled. Have hurricanes gotten stronger, as Mr. Hansen predicted? No.

Satellite data shows no evidence of this in relation to global surface temperature.

Have storms caused increasing damage in the U.S.?

No. Data from NOAA show no such increase.

How about stronger tornadoes?

No. In fact, the opposite may be true, as NOAA data offers some evidence of a decline.

“The list of what didn’t happen is long and tedious,” say Michaels and Maue.

“On the 30th anniversary of Mr. Hansen’s galvanizing testimony, it’s time to acknowledge that the rapid warming he predicted isn’t happening.”

The WSJ article:
‘Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/thirty-years-on-how-well-do-global-warming-predictions-stand-up-1529623442

The article appeared in the Wall Street Journal print edition as
‘A Hot Summer on Capitol Hill.’

See also this summary from Willis Eschenbach: The Thirty Year War

via Watts Up With That?

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June 22, 2018 at 05:34PM

After Thirty Years, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?

The answer, in short, is not all that well.
___________________

On June 23, 1988, NASA scientist James E. Hansen testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, where he expressed his “high degree of confidence” in “a cause-and-effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming.”

The 30th anniversary of Mr. Hansen’s predictions affords an opportunity to see how well his forecasts have turned out.

The answer, in short, is not all that well

In an article today in the Wall Street Journal,  climatologist Dr Patrick Michaels and meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue compare Hansen’s predictions to reality. They describe an earth that is only moderately warmer.

I’ll paraphrase some of the WSJ article here.

It turns out that global surface temperature has not increased significantly since 2000, discounting the larger-than-usual El Niño of 2015-16.

And it isn’t just Mr. Hansen who got it wrong, the two scholars point out. Models devised by the IPCC have, on average, predicted about twice as much warming as has been observed since global satellite temperature monitoring began 40 years ago.

What about Hansen’s other claims? He claimed that the late ’80s and ’90s would see “greater than average warming in the southeast U.S. and the Midwest.” No such spike has been measured in these regions.

In 2007, Hansen stated that most of Greenland’s ice would soon melt, raising sea levels 23 feet over the next 100 years. Subsequent research published in Nature magazine demonstrated this to be impossible.

Several more of Mr. Hansen’s predictions fizzled. Have hurricanes gotten stronger, as Mr. Hansen predicted? No. Satellite data shows no evidence of this in relation to global surface temperature.

Have storms caused increasing damage in the U.S.? No. Data from NOAA show no such increase.

How about stronger tornadoes? No. In fact, the opposite may be true, as NOAA data offers some evidence of a decline.

“The list of what didn’t happen is long and tedious,” say Michaels and Maue.

“On the 30th anniversary of Mr. Hansen’s galvanizing testimony, it’s time to acknowledge that the rapid warming he predicted isn’t happening.”

Dr. Michaels is director and Dr. Maue an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute’s Center for the Study of Science. Dr. Michaels obtained his Ph.D. in ecological climatology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Dr. Maue is a Ph.D meteorologist.

Interestingly, the WSJ article fails to mention that either of these men have a Ph.D. in their field of expertise.

This article appeared in the Wall Street Journal print edition as
‘A Hot Summer on Capitol Hill.’

And it was published online as:
Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/thirty-years-on-how-well-do-global-warming-predictions-stand-up-1529623442

Thanks to Jack Hydrazine, Jason Cragg and Jimmy Walter for these links

The post After Thirty Years, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up? appeared first on Ice Age Now.

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June 22, 2018 at 04:20PM