Despite hysterical headlines from the fake media claiming the weather is weirding out due to man-made climate change, recent studies show that it’s mostly superstition and that our modern climate in fact is well within the range of natural climate variability.
If one really wants to understand today’s weather and climate, it is essential to keep it in perspective with respect to what has happened over the past 1000 years or more. This is why a number of scientists are busy reconstructing past weather patterns at locations worldwide.
Central Asia climate likely dominated by natural cycles
First, a new study published in the journal Climate of the Past authored by a team of researchers led by Feng Chen of the Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration found that drought records from western and eastern Central Asia capture the regional dry/wet periods and that analyses indicate the existence of centennial (100–150 years), decadal (50–60, 24.4 and 11.4 years) and interannual (8.0 and 2.0-3.5 years) cycles.
The authors suspect that they may be linked with climate forcings, such as solar activity and ENSO.
This would tell us that climate in Central Asia is greatly dependent on the natural factors of solar and oceanic cycles, and not CO2.
Western US droughts worse 1000 years ago
Another recent study just appeared in the Journal of Climate and was authored by a team of scientists led by Toby R. Ault, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University. The findings indicate that the western United States was affected by several megadroughts during the last 1200 years, especially during the (MCA; 800 to 1300 CE).
The scientists found that such drought events are inevitable and occur purely as a consequence of internal climate variability. The researchers also concluded that the observed clustering of megadroughts of the Medieval Climate Anomaly were more likely to have been caused by either “external forcing or by internal climate variability”.
Canada: Scotian warm water “part of the natural variability “
The journal Continental Shelf Research published a study authored by scientists led by David Brickman of the Canadian Bedford Institute of Oceanography. The team examined the warm subsurface water temperatures in the Scotian Shelf region of Eastern Canada 2012, 2014, and 2015.
They found that the observed warming trend should be considered as “part of the natural variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system”.
AMS: natural variability dominates observed trends
Another a team of scientists led by Elisabeth Kendon of the Met Office Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom published a paper in the journal of the American meteorological Society which found natural variability appears to dominate current observed trends over the southern United Kingdom (including an increase in the intensity of heavy summer rainfall over the last 30 years).
The authors, citing Sarojini et al., 2016, confirmed that the “attribution of rainfall trends to human influence on local and regional scales is not yet possible”. More uncertainty over the human fingerprint on global climate.
Central Europe precipitation anomalies even greater long ago
Finally a paper published in the International Journal of Climatology and authored by Petr Dobrovolný of the Department of Geography, Masaryk University, Czech Republic, reconstructed precipitation in Central Europe (Czech Republic).
Source: Dobrovolný et al., 2018.
Their findings revealed two long periods of low precipitation variability, in the 13th–14th centuries and 1630s–1850s, and that precipitation anomalies of larger amplitude and longer duration occurred in the earlier part of the last millennium than those found in the instrumental period. The new reconstruction does not indicate any exceptional recent decline in MJJ precipitation.
In summary, the new studies from all around the world show that weather extremes were as bad or worse in the past than they are currently. Today’s modern climate is in fact well in phase with natural variability.
The papers mentioned above are all presented by Kenneth Richard here.
July 13, 2018 at 11:52AM