Climate Ambulance Chasers AWOL In Tropical Atlantic As “Shear” And Cooler SSTs Put Lid On Hurricanes

To keep informed on how the Atlantic hurricane season is developing, I find that hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach of the Colorado State University does a good job at that at Twitter.

A warmer planet does not mean more hurricanes

As the peak of the hurricane season approaches (September) he recently tweeted below average activity was forecast for the next two weeks:

That’s good news, especially in light of the fact that global warming experts, who seem not to understand how hurricanes develop, warned that these Atlantic cyclones would keep getting more frequent and stronger. Data suggest this has been hardly the case.

Detrimental wind shear, cool sea surface temperatures

So what’s been keeping the lid on hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic development zone this year?

Klotzbach mainly points to two 2 factors: sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and vertical wind shear. A couple of days ago he tweeted that wind shear in the region has been “above average” and that this tends to “reduce hurricane activity”:

Here Klotzbach even tweeted that vertical wind shear was “detrimental for hurricane formation.”

Shear 5th strongest since 1980

On August 10, the Colorado State University hurricane expert tweeted that wind shear had been at the 5th strongest in close to 40 years:

Mid August Tropical Atlantic surface temps cool

Although the tropical Atlantic surface has warmed up a bit, sea surface temperatures still remain cool there, which, according to Klotzbach, “for mid August are the coldest since 1994” and thus tend to suppress hurricane formation:

Unfavorable peak season hurricane formation conditions

Klotzbach sums up the forecast for the upcoming peak season in his tweet accompanying the first diagram above.

Latest output from the Climate Forecast System model calls for above-average vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic in September – the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Strong shear reduces hurricane activity.”

Good news. But when it comes to weather, things can turn on a dime.

PS: Another great place for hurricane information is Tropical Tidbits.

via NoTricksZone

August 18, 2018 at 08:51AM

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