Hurricane Florence Update

By Paul Homewood

The latest on Hurricane Florence:

 cone graphic

Thankfully it is now expected that Florence will weaken a little before making landfall.

A slight shift in the track to the southeast as it approaches the coast seems to have given it a chance to weaken, and Florence may even only be a Cat 2 at landfall on Sat morning.



While this will still be a very powerful storm, it is not as bad as the Cat 4, or even Cat 5, that was forecast a couple of days ago.

Sustained wind speeds are currently 120 mph, or Cat 5, and may still restrengthen to Cat 4 overnight, but will likely then weaken as it nears the coast:



Rainfall is also now projected to be much less than originally thought, with the worst near the coast:


[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential] 


Let’s be totally clear about this. Florence is still going to be an extremely dangerous hurricane, and a very real threat to life.

It is also a reminder that the difference between a dangerous hurricane, and a catastrophic one is very fine indeed.

And the difference has absolutely nothing to do with global warming.

Very small changes in tracks, atmospheric weather systems, forward speed, upper atmospheric patterns, wind shear, and even timing of tides can all have a big impact on the severity of hurricanes.

Some may veer off back out to sea, others may make land fall at relatively unpopulated places. But occasionally, as with Katrina, everything seems to conspire to produce the worst possible of results.

I am sure I speak for all of us. For those in the path of the storm – please stay safe.


September 12, 2018 at 04:34PM

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