Visualization of Pacific ocean temperatures shows El Niño brewing

Posted: October 13, 2018 by oldbrew in ENSO, Forecasting, News, Ocean dynamics
Tags: climate

Ocean currents
[image credit: SPL/BBC]

The latest NOAA synopsis says: ‘Overall, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflected ENSO-neutral, but with recent trends indicative of a developing El Niño.’ Sounds like a ‘definite maybe’ there, with models now forecasting a relatively weak El Niño.

Warming waters in the equatorial Pacific give increasing confidence that El Niño will be here soon, says Discover magazine.

It’s still not here yet, but El Niño sure looks like it’s coming.

In its latest forecast, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there is a 70 to 75 percent chance that El Niño will form “in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19.”

If the forecast turns out to be correct, the El Niño could influence weather around the world.

El Niño is typically associated with an extended Pacific jet stream and amplified storm track, boosting the odds of wetter than average conditions across the southern tier of U.S. states.

Should things play out this way (and they may not!), it could bring at least some relief for parts of the drought-stricken Southwest.

Continued here [includes visualizations].