At his Weatherbell Saturday Summary here, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi takes a hard look at the US GFS October-2018 forecast and compares it to what really happened.
“Horrible bust”
For energy dealers and those in the agriculture business, for example, the forecast was not worth the paper it was printed on.
Issued two months ago, the October 2018 forecast projected a colder than normal Arctic and the remainder of the globe to be at normal or above normal temperatures:
Cropped from Weatherbell October 27, 2018, Saturday Summary
Bastardi says the US model seems to be having a hard time finding cold. The next chart, two months later, show what really in fact happened in October:
Instead of being warmer than normal, North America, South America and a vast area of Asia wound up being cooler than normal. The Arctic did the opposite – coming in much warmer than normal.
Overall, Bastardi tweeted that the forecast was “a horrible bust”.
Between the poles, the globe ended up seeing plenty of cold regions.
Greenland sees – 62°F
Moreover, the ace meteorologist points out that Greenland looks to be the coldest October in almost a quarter century. For example, Kirye here tweeted recently that the temperature in Greenland plummeted to -62°F!
Early snow across Europe
Today, October 27, snow has been recorded over parts of England and Northern Ireland. Also see here, here and here. The forecasts show that snow is likely over much of Central Europe.
Backpedaling away from warm
The veteran meteorologist also thinks NCEP’s December-February winter forecast is on really thin ice, as it predicts a warm winter for much of North America (2:42 mark). Later Joe shows that NCEP is now backing off their forecast.
via NoTricksZone
October 27, 2018 at 08:16AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 