Hot NH Summers & El Ninos

Hot NH Summers & El Ninos

October 30, 2018

By Paul Homewood


There have been many reports about the hot summer just passed in much of the Northern Hemisphere. And, inevitably, it has been blamed on climate change.

However, analysis of the UAH satellite data shows a different story:



What we see is this summer has been similar to other recent summers such as 1998, 2010 and 2016.

The significance of this is that these three years all came at the tail end of large El Ninos:


El Ninos leave a lot of heat behind in the atmosphere, which can take a long time to dissipate. However, both the 1998 and 2010 events were quickly followed by strong La Ninas, during which temperatures returned to normal.

This however did not happen after the 2015/16 El Nino. There was only a very weak La Nina, itself bracketed to two short lived weak El Ninos. It is this fact that explains why NH temperatures have still been artificially elevated this summer.

Every action has a reaction, as they say. La Ninas are a time when the Equatorial Pacific is recharging its batteries, as it were, thus eventually setting the scene for the next El Nino. For instance, it was the La Nina of 2010/11 which made the 2015/16 El Nino so strong.

The lack of any significant La Nina since 2016 means that the next El Nino is likely also to be a weak affair.


October 30, 2018 at 02:33PM

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