The last one finished in mid-2016 and was one of the strongest on record.
The World Meteorological Organization says there’s a 75-80% chance of the weather phenomenon forming by next February, BBC News reports.
The naturally occurring event causes changes in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and has a major influence on weather patterns around the world.
It is linked to floods in South America and droughts in Africa and Asia.
El Niño events often lead to record temperatures as heat rises from the Pacific.
According to the WMO update, sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific have been at weak El Niño levels since October. However the atmosphere has not yet responded to the extra warmth that’s produced by the upwelling seas.
Scientists have been predicting the likelihood of a new event since May this year, with confidence increasing.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology are now estimating that an El Niño event will start in December. US forecasters are saying there’s a 90% chance of the event starting in January.
Continued here.
See also: Ian Wilson: Is the November 2018 Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) a possible trigger for an El Niño?
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
November 27, 2018 at 10:09AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 