There is now little doubt that climate will be a major issue in the 2020 Presidential election. Now that former Vice President Biden has put forth an aggressive, left-wing program to waste enormous resources on trying to reduce US carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, it is hard to see how the US can avoid a contentious political debate over climate.

If Biden had proposed a much more moderate climate plan, the eventual Democratic candidate for President might have been able to argue that he/she was trying to propose a compromise plan with wide appeal, but now he/she will instead be likely to end up endorsing a much more extreme climate plan much further “left” than the Obama climate program.

The more the left wing of the Democratic Party gets their way on climate by trying to move climate policy further left, the more Trump can point out the multiple adverse effects of the Democratic Party climate platform on the economy and the utter uselessness of trying to reduce CO₂ emissions in one country (the US) even assuming that it has any eventual effects at all. Loss of jobs in the fossil fuel industry will be one illustration of the issues that Trump could and may emphasize.

The Potential for the Loss of Union Votes in 2020

There are already stirrings of concern by some labor unions about the Party’s climate plans that will lose jobs for union members as a result of its increasingly left wing climate programs. This split between the “elite” left wing “environmental” arms of the Democratic Party and labor union supporters follows similar problems in other countries, particularly in France with its “yellow vest” movement. A serious split could well endanger the Democratic Party’s 2020 chances. The Democratic nominee must entice labor union voters that voted for Trump in 2016 back into voting Democratic. That will be hard to do if the Democratic Party continues to back the “elite” wing of the Party in taking a hard left position on climate “control.”

The more extreme the Democratic Party and its nominees for President come down on climate, the easier Trump’s campaign will be. But he may have to more directly attack left-wing climate proposals without worrying about antagonizing left wing climate policy supporters. So far he has not directly taken on “consensus” climate science, but he may have to do so in order to win.

One of the interesting aspects of climate “control” is that any reduction in US carbon emissions because of moving manufacturing internationally traded goods elsewhere (like China) often results in increases in CO₂ emissions worldwide, not reductions. This is because the receiving country is likely to emit more CO₂ than the US did or would to produce the same quantity of such goods because of their relative inefficiency. If CO₂ is a pollutant at all, it’s adverse effects are worldwide, not local to the US.

via Carlin Economics and Science

http://bit.ly/2I3aFXU

June 9, 2019 at 04:26PM