By Paul Homewood
The FT had this extraordinary story the other day, which immediately set the BS button flashing:
The claim is that the weather in the last year has been extremely dry, and that this is because of climate change.
The idea that one year’s weather has anything to do with climate change is in itself nonsensical, but let’s check the data.
Erfurt is close to the Harz Mountains, and has one of the longest rainfall records in Germany, dating back to 1827. According to KNMI, the monthly data below, which goes up to September 2018, shows no sign of a drier climate.
Using the data from KNMI, we can plot annual rainfall. The trend line is flat, and dry years are well distributed across the record.
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/pa10554.dat
As for the last year, the German Meteorological Service gives monthly data for nearby Giessen-Wettenberg:
https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/cos/hesse.html
Rainfall has been below average, particularly last autumn, but certainly not unprecedented.
In the last twelve months, rainfall has totalled over 500mm, but the driest year on record was 1976 with 325mm.
https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/cos/hesse.html
As for the idea that a bit of hot weather can kill off forests, we only need to remind ourselves that hot, dry summers in Germany were common place in the Middle Ages.
The FT article does offer one clue as to what is going on:
In nature, trees grow in areas that suit them for very good reasons. That is why beech and oak have thrived in the Harz for centuries, and why spruce and pine have not.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
August 19, 2019 at 05:45AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 
Reblogged this on Climate- Science.press.
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