South Australianisation of NSW electricity

Today there was much political beat-up on TV news over a small 190MW QNI upgrade (an interconnector to Qld) costing ~$102Mill. Prime Minister Scott Morrison and NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian with other Ministers in attendance talked about “…putting downward pressure on wholesale prices..”. The purest fantasies you will hear. AEMO has a Generation Information page where you can download Excel files setting out State by State installed capacity also showing new projects for a few years ahead.
Here is a Table showing changes to generation out to 2023.
On a Sydney scorcher summer afternoon/evening demand can reach 10,800MW
Allowing for projects AEMO indicates will open by 2023
The following installed generating capacities should be available by 2023
When Liddel closes first half of 2022 AEMO says coal will total 8,260MW
AEMO says gas will total 2,530MW
AEMO says hydro will total 2,706MW
AEMO says biomass will total 133MW
other 9MW
QNI interconnector – should manage 1,000MW
AEMO says wind could total 3,023MW
AEMO says solar could total 2,877MW
Comments from the top –
On hot days coal plants can lose reliability. Post 2023 coal generation will tend to be driven out by large increases in installed wind & solar.
In recent years gas plants have not been able to run for lack of gas in mains at demand peaks and the NSW Govt has exploration drilling bans – go figure.
Hydro should help meet peak demand.
Interconnectors can play up on hot days too and NSW will be increasingly dependent on the Qld Govt maintaining a surplus of coal or gas generation. Who knows what future Qld Govts might do?
Wind often reduces as hot days turn to hot evenings so no matter how much wind is installed it can not help if the blades are still.
Solar – we all know the sun goes down at end of the day. Batteries on a huge scale could be needed to tap n store solar’s daytime output.
Large industrial users will increasingly be told to shutdown around peak demand.
Any consumers could choose to turn off power at peak demand times, they might be paid to accept that. More of us might opt to save money by say cooking at 9-10pm rather than 6pm.
All sorts of appliances like washing machines/vacuum cleaners could be used at off peak times as hot water is heated now.
I do not know if a majority of NSW voters have chosen this future but the “South Australianisation” of NSW power supplies is on its way – in progress – “coming to a switchboard near you” – now.

via Errors in IPCC climate science

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October 28, 2019 at 01:21PM

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