by Judith Curry
Some articles I’ve flagged, plus emails I’ve received.
Here are some articles I’ve flagged for discussion; I am not personally endorsing anything here:
Victor Davis Hanson: Some Coronavirus Humility
Greg Goodman’s Italy analysis
The number of cases of COVID-19 reported in Italy is still rising exponentially as is the total number of cases. There is no obviously visible change since ten northern regions were put under restricted movement regulations on 8th March and this was extended to all italian territory between 8th and 11th March 2020.
However, studying the logarithm of the number of new cases reported each day does reveal and change.
On a logarithmic scale an exponential rise becomes a straight line. The slope represents the constant term which describes the form of the exponential.
The linear regression of the logarithm shows the slope reduced by more than a factor of two after the measures were introduced.
This will mean that ( all other conditions remaining the same ) the outbreak will take twice as long to reach its peak but the rise in daily new cases will make it more manageable for the local health services. This strategy is often referred to as “flattening the curve”. Over the limited period since these measures were put in place this appears to have had a detectable effect, though it remains limited in magnitude.
On the 21st March 2020, a limited military deployment was established in the northern region of Lombardy, the centre of the epidemic, to more effectively enforce the existing measures.
The lengthening of the doubling time for new cases will allow more time for already swamped emergency services to adapt to increasing case load but it remains an exponential growth.
So far there is no indication of a peak in cases or an end to the exponential phase of the epidemic in Italy.
For details of the analysis method, see Greg’s post at climategrog
This is really the kind of graph we need to be looking at to detect
change during early exponential phase.
Here is a similar log graph including China and France, which looks like
it is flattening out as clampdown has had time to pass through
USA is still in very aggressive growth which is faster than any EU
countries even in early phase.
Only S. Korea was faster, they rose fast, peaked early and contained the
epidemic faster than China. ( Probably having gained from being
Emailed from Oregon – unintended consequences:
via Climate Etc.
March 23, 2020 at 10:45AM