Guest verse by Denis Howarth

    On April 13, Israel’s Channel 12 television broadcast a discussion with Isaac Ben-Israel, who heads the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University, chairs the National Council for Research and Development, and is a mathematician.  Ben-Israel said that his study of the COVID-19 novel coronavirus statistics shows “a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves”, the pattern being that the rate of infection increases and then declines over the first 40 days, regardless of what policies countries employ to combat the virus.

    The following day, the Times of Israel published a report of the discussion, which apparently also included an angry doctor warning that “mathematicians – who know nothing about biology” should not be permitted to influence public health policies.    That Times of Israel report of April 14 has subsequently formed the basis for many news stories, including that report’s wholly undocumented assertion that Ben-Israel had claimed that the virus “plays itself out after 70 days”.

    On April 19, the Times of Israel published Ben-Israel’s study itself, which turns out to contain no such assertion.  Nevertheless, all the secondary news sources, feeding off the April 14 newspaper report rather than the April 19 study, continue to spread that claim, which – the claim that the claim was made – has now become internet dogma.

    As for the graphs of daily new infections in various countries, they show a clear decline in Italy, Germany, France, Norway.  There is not (yet) any such downward curve for the U.S., the U.K., or Canada.  The graph for Sweden (which implemented social distancing but no lockdown) shows infections still increasing.  Worldwide, the infection rate is flat.

        This virus thing.  I
        Have been looking at the graphs.
        So did someone else.

        An Israeli named
        Isaac Ben-Israel caused
        A bit of a stir.

        The press claims he claimed
        The virus plays itself out
        In seventy days.

        He does not know why.
        He just looked at the graphs and
        Made observations.

        Naturally, he
        Has been attacked as being
        Irresponsible.

        When the press declares
        Crisis, one is not allowed
        To use one’s own eyes.

        Courageously, though,
        Ben-Israel did, and wrote
        A simple study.

        He is being called
        A prominent Israeli
        Mathematician.

        His study, though, which
        Of course I have read, uses
        No mathematics.

        It just shows some graphs,
        Which appear similar from
        Country to country.

        Most of the world has
        Countered the virus spread by
        Social distancing.

        That includes having
        No big social gatherings.
        No more party time.

        In addition, some
        Countries have locked down, which means
        Shutting down commerce.

        Whereupon a chunk
        Of their workers instantly
        Become unemployed.

        That is harsh, and it
        May turn out to have been an
        Over-reaction.

        One could guess as much.
        But fortunately, the graphs
        Give us some data.

        They seem to show the
        Same pattern for countries with
        And without lockdowns.

        Which suggests that the
        Economic lockdowns were
        Unnecessary.

        Very bad news for
        Responsible fear mongers
        And politicians.

        It is their job to
        Prevent the populace from
        Figuring things out.

        They have agreed on
        An official message, which
        Is simple though false.

        Always the case with
        Fear mongers.  But we fearless
        Ones check for ourselves.

        Which I, a fearless
        Person, do.  Apart from what
        Ben-Israel did.

        I neither approve
        Nor disappove of what he
        Made of the data.

        I can think of some
        Potential criticisms
        Of his conclusions.

        But that is not my
        Purpose here.  Instead, I shall
        Describe what I see.

        There are various
        Graphs available online.
        Some are not so good.

        The most useless graph
        Is the cumulative curve
        Of COVID cases.

        It starts low, then bends
        Steeply up, then heads on straight
        To infinity.

        It tells nothing, save
        The trivial history
        Of the first stages.

        It is the same as
        Summing all human deaths since
        This planet began.

        Obviously, that
        Kind of graph will never show
        Any turn downward.

        All it can show is
        That some ignoramus is
        Trying to scare you.

        Another fairly
        Useless graph is the doubling
        Rate of infection.

        The early rate is
        High.  The infection doubles
        Every three days.

        Then the doubling rate
        Falls off.  The doubling time gets
        Longer and longer.

        Duh.  That tells nothing.
        You have merely hit a stage
        Of linear growth.

        It is now pointless
        To calculate when twice as
        Many will be sick.

        Will it be thirty
        Days, sixty days, ninety days?
        It does not matter.

        Within whatever
        Period, as many will
        Get sick as get cured.

        So, what kind of graph
        Gives us good information?
        The daily growth curve.

        What it shows is that
        There is a period of
        Exponential growth.

        Then the curve levels
        Off, in about forty days
        From when it began.

        The growth levels off
        At ninety thousand, worldwide,
        New cases per day.

        The trend line is a
        Horizontal flat line, a
        Daily new ration.

        The main effect of
        Which is that hospitals are
        Not overloaded.

        As many come in
        The door each day as go out.
        (Dead, or recovered.)

        It also means that
        The problem does not increase,
        But goes on and on.

        However, the trend
        Line is just a summary.
        There is something else.

        The actual curve
        Is not flat.  Rather, it shows
        A wavy pattern.

        The wave goes up and
        Down with a period of
        Exactly one week.

        The count of daily
        New cases hits a high point
        Every Friday.

        Interesting.  What
        Does that wave mean?  One suspects
        A human factor.

        The whole human world
        Governs its activity
        By the calendar.

        We know people change
        Their activity as the
        Weekend approaches.

        Does that make them get
        Sick at some point in the week?
        Or just get treated?

        Or have hospitals
        Some pattern of admitting
        And of recording?

        Whatever it is,
        The curve displays this wave form
        Of just seven days.

        Somehow the new case
        Counts are highest on Friday
        And low on Monday.

        What the worldwide curve
        Does not show so far is how
        The whole thing goes down.

        There is no fall off,
        So far, in cases.  It is
        A steady problem.

        So we cannot tell
        How long the problem will last.
        That is a problem.

        The problem is that
        The Times of Israel did
        Some mis-reporting.

        Hardly a surprise.
        An instance of journalists
        Freely inventing.

        The paper’s lead was
        On a TV interview
        By Ben-Israel.

        Then, five days later,
        It printed Ben-Israel’s
        Actual study.

        The original
        Lead, very original,
        Made these two statements.

        First, that the spread of
        COVID-nineteen peaks after
        About forty days.

        Second, it declines
        To almost zero after
        Some seventy days.

        In the study by
        Ben-Israel, that second
        Statement is not found.

        Nor is the paper’s
        Lead paragraph supported
        In the story text.

        Nowhere other than
        In that lead, any mention
        Of seventy days.

        Yet that lead became
        The headline: that the virus
        Will play itself out.

        Gentle reader, do
        You apprehend danger in
        False journalism?

        Also, that all the
        Attacks on the study failed
        To notice that point?

        Is there a danger
        In false criticism of
        False journalism?

        The study made the
        Point that policy measures
        Had the same outcome.

        Whether or not a
        Nation imposed a lockdown,
        The growth was the same.

        Maybe so or not.
        The journalists invented
        Quite another point.

        They fantasized that
        The study said the virus
        Would play itself out.

        That is precisely
        What we do not know, because
        It has not happened.

        Get it?  What we can
        Know is the past.  That is what
        Science is based on.

        But journalists think
        That what scientists do is
        Predict the future.

        That is precisely
        What scientists do not do.
        Get that in your head.

        When a paper says
        “Scientists predict”, you know
        That it is lying.

        They have made it up,
        Or the “scientists” that they
        Quote are fraudulent.

        Newspapers publish
        Astrology columns that
        Are worth just as much.

        Now, as to what we
        Can know about the virus.
        We look at the stats.

        The observations
        By Ben-Israel and by
        Me are similar.

        The statistics tell
        What happened so far, and that
        Is all that they tell.

        We can see the curve
        Start, zoom upward, level off,
        And make little waves.

        We do not see the
        Curve going downward.  Therefore
        That part is unknown.

        We do not know how
        Long the virus will persist.
        We must wait and see.

        I have told you what
        The graphs show: the current spread
        Rate is linear.

        Ninety thousand new
        Cases each day, or somewhat
        Less if it’s Monday.

Copyright © 2020 Denis Howarth
(Author of Hackyu Won Too Free)