COVID-19 discussion thread VII

by Judith Curry

Some interesting papers that I’ve spotted over the past week.

New study from S. Korea finds HCQ +AZ (or other antibiotic) significantly reduces time to viral clearance and hospital stay in moderate covid-19 patients compared to both conservative treatment and Lopinavir-ritonavir. https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20094193v1.full.pdf

The #COVID19 “6-feet rule” falls apart with even a slight breeze https://aip.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1063/5.0011960?download=true… based upon extensive simulations of coughing and airborne droplet transmissions (e.g. saliva can travel 18 feet in 5 sec w/ a bit of wind)

Wearing a mask can reduce coronavirus transmission by 75% [link]

Covid Patients Testing Positive After Recovery Aren’t Infectious, Study Shows. They’re shedding only dead virus. [link]

Why are non-white Britons more likely to die of COVID19? [link]

Comparison of France to Marseille where people are being treated with HCQ+AZ. 0.5% fatality rate compared to 21.6% nationwide. http://francesoir.fr/efficacite-des-mesures-un-point-de-vue-factuel-marseille-30-fois-moins-de-chance-de-mourir-du-covid

Mathematical models as public troubles in COVID-19 infection control: following the numbers [link]

The Covid-19 fatality rate remains at 1% in Senegal as the country continues to broadly use hydroxychloroquine “despite warnings from the World Health Organization.” https://wfuv.org/content/senegal-pledges-bed-every-coronavirus-patient-%E2%80%94-and-their-contacts-too

Why DID so many athletes fall sick in Wuhan in October? More competitors reveal they were ill at the World Military Games months before China admitted coronavirus could be passed between humans https://mol.im/a/8327047

Coronavirus did NOT come from animals in Wuhan market’: Landmark study suggests it was taken into the area by someone already infected https://mol.im/a/8326823

Malaysia has used hydroxychloroquine since the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak. The recovery rate there now exceeds 80%. The country of over 30 million people only has 1,247 active cases. [link]

China may have 640,000 coronavirus cases instead of 84,000, leaked data from country’s military-run university suggests https://mol.im/a/8323419

Sorrento ID’s antibody against COVID19 that appears 100% effective [link]

New study shows ZINC significantly improves hospital stays, ICU admissions, ventilations, and mortality when used in conjunction with HCQ + AZ. https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.02.20080036v1.full.pdf

“Machine learning tools selected three biomarkers that predict the mortality of individual patients more than 10 days in advance with more than 90% accuracy.” [link]

Simply talking in confined environments could lead to coronavirus transmission [link]

“Staggering number” of extra deaths in community is not explained by covid-19. Only a third of the excess deaths seen in the community in England and Wales can be explained by covid-19, new data have shown.” https://bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931

Details of the model @neil_ferguson‘s team built to predict the epidemic are emerging, and they are not pretty: http://rationaloptimist.com/blog/lockdown-and-mathematical-guesswork/

A strategic approach to COVID vaccine development [link]

Coronavirus can enter the body through the eyes [link]

Smokers less likely to fall ill with COVID19 [link]

More evidence vitamin D can help against coronavirus: Study finds patients with a severe deficiency are TWICE as likely to die from COVID-19 https://mol.im/a/8300797

Policy

UK’s coronavirus response repeats the errors of past crises [link]

Britain’s hard lesson about blind trust in scientific authorities [link]

Fight over virus death toll opens grim new front in election battle [link]

Scientific integrity in the COVID response [link]

Estimating the burden of COVID in France [link]

Taiwan’s secret weapon against COVID: An epidemiologist as Vice President [link]

The Kerala model- why this Indian state is doing so well in the COVID crisis [link]

Peter Gluckman – Reflections on the evidentiary-politics interface [link]

People or jobs, or wealth? The government has to decide which to prioritize. [link]

Why meatpacking plants have become COVID hot spots [link]

States are the laboratories of democracy [link]

Sociology

The secret lives of perfect social distancers [link]

Virus pushes science and its controversies center state [link]

This pandemic shows that collaborating is better than competing, says author and theoretical physicist Carlo Rovelli [link]

Are “experts” all they are cracked up to be? Expert journalist says, “no”. https://theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/how-to-predict-the-future/588040/…

Understanding COVID19 — a supernova in human history [link]

World View: It is time to adopt a ‘red team’ approach in science that integrates criticism into each step of the research process, writes @lakens. “A scientific claim is as reliable as only the most severe criticism it has been able to withstand.” https://go.nature.com/35PcJx2

Pandemic researchers — recruit your own best critics [link]

The biggest Asian neighborhood in NYC has had one if the lowest rates of covid-19. Why? Masks & early warning from relatives overseas. [link]

The world doesnt yet know enough to beat the coronavirus [link]

The radical uncertainties of coronavirus [link]

Covid-19 Science as a Contact Sport – what #Climate scientists have lived with for two decades, coronavirus researchers such as #NeilFerguson are finding out in a hurry https://politico.eu/article/coronavirus-what-covid-19-scientists-can-learn-from-their-climate-change-colleagues/

What was the point of offices anyway? https://econ.trib.al/UXBrQhR

via Climate Etc.

https://ift.tt/2WLI5BN

May 19, 2020 at 07:44PM