Gerry Pease: Solar outlook

From looking at the 30 day Wolf number and NOAA sunspot number it looks like Solar Minimum could have been in December, 2019 but possibly as late as mid-March this year.

Coincidentally, there are peaks in barycentric solar torque (dL/dt, where L denotes the Sun’s angular momentum, ref https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03553v3) on March 19 and April 24, 2020:

Below: the May 24, 2020 barycentric solar torque peak. The Sun and planetary configuration is shown with Carsten Arnholm’s Solar Simulator 2 app. The torque vector at the center of the Sun points in the counterclockwise direction of the angular momentum vector. The red cross hairs mark the center of mass (barycenter) of the solar system. The red line from the center of the Sun points in the direction of the Sun’s acceleration, which is always close to the direction of Jupiter.

The 2020 minimum solar torque value on Oct 26, just before it ramps up:

The third solar torque peak in 2020:

The solar barycentric torque from 2019 to 2039:

Barycentric solar torque is at a minimum in 2025. Coincidentally, the peak of solar cycle 25 is expected to be in 2024 or 2025.

Solar cycles 14-24 are shown below. SC25 is expected to peak in 2024 or 2025. However, there has been no apparent consistent phase relationship between sunspot activity and barycentric solar torque.