By Paul Homewood
Much to the joy of Matt McGrath, Ireland is on the verge of committing economic suicide.
Ireland stands on the brink of putting climate change at the heart of its government if Green Party members vote in favour of a new coalition.
The new administration plans to ban fracked gas imports from the US, make steep cuts in emissions and end new drilling for oil and gas.
Agreed in talks with two larger parties, the plan now needs the support of two thirds of Green members.
But there is opposition, with some saying it is not progressive enough.
The results of voting are expected on Friday evening.
Ireland’s reputation as a clean and green country has been tarnished in recent years by the inability of successive governments to tackle carbon emissions.
Compared to the rest of the EU, Ireland is the fourth largest emitter per capita.
An agreed EU target to cut carbon by 20% by this year was missed by a country mile.
The main problems have been in transport and agriculture, with a growing national dairy herd increasing by more than a quarter in the past five years.
Voter concern over climate change saw a significant improvement in Green Party representation in parliamentary elections held in February this year.
With no one winning an overall majority, the Greens’ 12 seats made them a key partner in coalition talks, with the two largest traditional parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Delayed by the Covid-19 crisis, negotiators eventually produced an agreed programme for government.
The issues of climate change and sustainability are at the heart of it.
The proposed cuts in emissions will be enshrined in a Climate Action law, which will define how five-year carbon budgets will be set.
This idea, which would see Ireland’s emissions cut by 51% by 2030, is similar to existing legislation in the UK, and has been welcomed by scientists.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53147271
Thanks to Ireland’s voting system, the Green Party, who only polled 7%, have been given a disproportionate say in this matter. Yet cutting emissions by 51% in the next decade may not even be enough for them.
At the last count in 2018, Ireland relied on fossil fuels and peat for 89% of its primary energy. Renewables supplied 10%, but about half of this was bio, with most of the other half coming from wind power:
https://www.seai.ie/data-and-insights/seai-statistics/energy-data/
Electricity only accounts for 19% of total energy, so any further decarbonisation there will only have a limited impact on overall emissions. As far as energy is concerned, transport and residential are the major areas which will need to be tackled.
There is the usual talk of electric cars, with all new sales of conventional cars by 2030 called for. But where would the electricity come from, and how could the transmission and distribution network be transformed in such a short space of time to handle what could be a tripling of the load?
As for the idea that people should use public transport more, try telling that to people living in rural areas.
Ireland still relies heavily on gas, coal and peat for its electricity. It is not conceivable that power supply can be tripled in a decade, whilst at the same time closing coal and peat power plants.
Ireland is, of course, part of the All Island Grid system, and also depends on the Moyle Interconnector to Scotland. But I doubt there will be much capacity going spare either in Ulster or the mainland, and it certainly won’t be “carbon free”.
http://www.eirgridgroup.com/site-files/library/EirGrid/4289_EirGrid_GenCapStatement_v9_web.pdf
In terms of total GHGs, ie not just CO2, agriculture accounts for 33%, and more on this in a minute.
CO2 emissions, however, are dominated by transport and residential. Many homes, for instance, use oil for heating, and could not be readily switched to electric, particularly in rural areas.
Electric cars would also not much use in many rural locations.
Talking of which brings us back to agriculture. Most of the non-CO2 emissions are methane from livestock. Highly inconsiderately, Irish farmers keep a lot of dairy cattle, and have been so successful that the national herd has grown by more than a quarter in the past five years.
There is the usual green nonsense talked about “organic farming” and “bio energy”, but the reality is very simple – you either have a proper farming industry, or you don’t. You can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs any more than you can keep cattle without them breaking wind. And last time I checked, Ireland’s climate is ideal for pastoral farming.
The bottom line is that Ireland does not have cat in hell’s chance of cutting its emissions in half by 2030, even if it cripples its economy in the attempt.
In any normal world, its politicians would have chucked out these dopey green policies at first sight. Unfortunately its citizens will now have to pay the cost of its rulers virtue signalling.
Refs
The full Green Deal is here:
ProgrammeforGovernment_June2020_Final
UPDATE
It now appears that the Irish Greens have now approved the deal, (no doubt astonished that it was handed on a plate to them). As a consequence, a new governing coalition will be formed.
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June 27, 2020 at 04:30PM
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