Month: July 2020

Decadal Climate Prediction? Might As Well Throw A Dice!

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t jelorenzo

 

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https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/

The WMO has collated global temperature projections from twelve different organisations, covering this year and the next five years. They were produced in 2019.

First, the forecasts for this year, shown as anomalies from 1981-2010:

 

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And the next five years:

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It is totally clear that there is very little agreement between any of them, other than a warm Arctic.

An unkind person might call them a waste of space!

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July 12, 2020 at 03:42AM

Dom Cummings sets up No.10 ‘skunkworks’ tasked with roadmapping #netzero

Skunkworks project - Wikipedia
Lockheed Martin skunkworks
Credit: Wikipedia commons

No 10 has posted a civil service job advertisement for the head of a new analytical unit, who, the job description said, will work inside Downing Street for two years, says a report in the Guardian.

“The analytical unit, known as 10 ‘data science’ or ‘10ds’ is a pseudo startup within No 10 designed to drive forward the quantitative revolution. The current plan is to establish a data engineering team, data science team, a skunkworks and an analytical deep dive unit,” it said.

“One of the priority policy areas highlighted in the advert for which “analysis is critical”, is “how to optimally achieve net-zero”. It said outside applicants can expect to earn £135,000 – or perhaps more for an “outstanding candidate” – a salary level likely to raise eyebrows in Whitehall.”

The CCC’s nose will be put out of joint by this. Cue the hysteria from the Brighton elf, Selwyn Gummer et al.

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July 12, 2020 at 03:39AM

Michael Shellenberger Exposes Climate Industrial Complex in ‘Apocalypse Never’

Climate alarmists continue to berate us that the world is doomed and the only ‘solution’ offered is channelling $trillions more in subsidies to intermittent wind and solar. Their calls for ‘immediate action’ really means more of the same: more subsidies for more windmills and more solar panels; which really means the end of reliable and affordable electricity.

Whatever your views on climate change (the apparently existential threat formerly known as ‘global warming’), the idea that trying to run modern, civil societies on sunshine and breezes might somehow prevent it is, of course, a complete nonsense.

One environmentalist who called it out, loud and early, was Michael Shellenberger. As a long-time advocate for reliable, affordable and safe nuclear energy, and critic of intermittent renewables – calling wind and solar worse than useless – Michael combines common sense, logic and reason, in an era when those attributes have become scarce commodities.

Shellenberger delivered a heart-felt mea culpa across a variety of media platforms – the basis for which is set out in his latest work, ‘Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All’.

The essay Shellenberger wrote (covered here by STT) has (predictably) suffered the kind of orchestrated corporate censorship experienced by Michael Moore, in relation to his documentary, Planet of the Humans, which was promptly removed from YouTube and which Facebook, Google and others did their level best to eradicate from the public domain.

Initially, Forbes carried Shellenberger’s piece, but after complaints from the usual suspects Forbes removed the article and all traces of it. [Note to Ed: what’s that thing about “inconvenient truths”?]

However, notwithstanding the efforts to de-platform him and cancel his message, a growing number of his academic peers have decided to break ranks and support Shellenberger’s efforts to expose the causes and consequences of the climate industrial complex.

Here’s an article from one of them, John Tierney.

Michael Shellenberger book Apocalypse Never exposes environmental activists
The Australian
John Tierney
2 July 2020

There is a recurring puzzle in the history of the environmental movement: Why do green activists keep promoting policies that are harmful not only to humans but also to the environment? Michael Shellenberger is determined to solve this problem, and he is singularly well qualified.

He understands activists because he has been one himself since high school, when he raised money for the Rainforest Action Network. Early in his adult career, he campaigned to protect redwood trees, promote renewable energy, stop global warming, and improve the lives of farmers and factory workers in the Third World. But the more he travelled, the more he questioned what Westerners’ activism was accomplishing for people or for nature.

He became a different kind of activist by helping start a movement called ecomodernism, the subject of “Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All.” He still wants to help the poor and preserve ecosystems, but through industrialisation instead of “sustainable development.”

He’s still worried about climate change, but he doesn’t consider it the most important problem today, much less a threat to humanity’s survival — and he sees that greens’ favourite solutions are making the problem worse.

He chronicles environmental progress around the world and crisply debunks myth after gloomy myth. No, we are not in the midst of the “sixth mass extinction,” because only 0.001% of the planet’s species go extinct annually. No, whales were not saved by Greenpeace but rather by the capitalist entrepreneurs who discovered cheaper substitutes for whale oil (first petroleum, then vegetable oils) that decimated the whaling industry long before activists got involved. No, plastics don’t linger for thousands of years in the ocean; they’re broken down by sunlight and other forces. No, climate change has not caused an increase in the frequency or intensity of floods, droughts, hurricanes and tornadoes.

In 2002, Mr. Shellenberger proposed the New Apollo Project, a precursor to the Green New Deal. Many of its ideas for promoting renewable energy were adopted by the Obama administration and received more than $150 billion in federal funds, but Mr. Shellenberger was disillusioned with the results.

I know the above facts will sound like “climate denialism” to many people. But that just shows the power of climate alarmism. In reality, the above facts come from the best-available scientific studies, including those ­conducted by or accepted by the IPCC, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, the Inter­national Union for the Conservation of Nature and other leading scientific bodies.

A disproportionate share of the money, as he documents, went to companies that enriched donors to the Obama campaign but failed to yield practical technologies.

He now considers most forms of renewable energy to be impractical for large-scale use. Windmills and solar power are too expensive and unreliable as a primary source of power for people in poor countries, and they cause too much environmental damage because they require vast areas of land and harm flora and fauna. He faults Western activists and governments for trying to force these technologies on Third World countries and prevent them from building hydro-electric and fossil-fuel power plants.

“Rich nations,” he writes, “should do everything they can to help poor nations industrialise.” Instead “many of them are doing something closer to the opposite: seeking to make poverty sustainable rather than to make poverty history.”

While industrialisation causes a short-term rise in carbon emissions, in the long term it’s beneficial to the environment as people move to cities, allowing farmland to revert to nature, and as prosperity enables them to switch to cleaner and more compact forms of energy. Carbon emissions decline as people move from wood to coal to natural gas, and then ultimately to what Mr. Shellenberger calls the safest and cleanest source: nuclear energy, the only practical technology for drastically curtailing carbon emissions, if only green activists would stop trying to shut down nuclear plants.

Mr. Shellenberger blames the anti-nuke movement partly on fearmongering by activists and journalists, partly on instinctive hostility to new technology, and partly on financial self-interest. “Every major climate activist group in America,” he writes, including the Environmental Defense Fund, the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Sierra Club, “has been seeking to close nuclear plants around the United States while taking money from or investing in natural gas companies, renewable energy companies, and their investors who stand to make billions if nuclear plants are closed and replaced by natural gas.”

Mr. Shellenberger makes a persuasive case, lucidly blending research data and policy analysis with a history of the green movement and vignettes of people in poor countries suffering the consequences of “environmental colonialism.”

He realises, though, that rational arguments alone won’t convince devout environmentalists. “I was drawn toward the apocalyptic view of climate change twenty years ago,” he writes. “I can see now that my heightened anxiety about climate reflected underlying anxiety and unhappiness in my own life that had little to do with climate change or the state of the natural environment.”

For him and so many others, environmentalism offered emotional relief and spiritual satisfaction, giving them a sense of purpose and transcendence. It has become a substitute religion for those who have abandoned traditional faiths, as he explains in his concluding chapter, “False Gods for Lost Souls.” Its priests have been warning for half a century that humanity is about to be punished for its sins against nature, and no matter how often the doomsday forecasts fail, the faithful still thrill to each new one.

“The trouble with the new environmental religion is that it has become increasingly apocalyptic, destructive, and self-defeating,” he writes. “It leads its adherents to demonise their opponents, often hypocritically. It drives them to seek to restrict power and prosperity at home and abroad. And it spreads anxiety and depression without meeting the deeper psychological, existential, and spiritual needs its ostensibly secular devotees seek.”

Mr. Shellenberger wants to woo them to an alternative faith that he calls environmental humanism, which is committed to the “transcendent moral purpose of universal human flourishing and environmental progress.” I’m not sure that’s enough to attract converts, but it makes for a much truer picture of the world — and a much cheerier read.

John Tierney, a contributing editor for City Journal, is the co-author of The Power of Bad: How the Negativity Effect Rules Us and How We Can Rule It.
The Australian

The world’s never as bad as they’d have you believe.

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July 12, 2020 at 02:31AM

Climate Change Dilemma: Rescuing Nature Through “Assisted Migration” vs Invasive Ecosystem Disruption

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Scientists trying to help species migrate North far outside their natural range, to help the species survive global warming, are encountering objections from people who think it is wrong to disrupt ecosystems by introducing new species. But supporters of the scheme are worried the climate is changing too fast for nature to keep up.

‘Playing the hand of God’: scientists’ experiment aims to help trees survive climate change

Scientists use a strategy called assisted migration in an attempt to rescue tree species from inhospitable conditions

Ashley Stimpson
Published onWed 8 Jul 2020 20.00 AEST

Since 2013, TNC has planted more than 2,000 longleaf pine seedlings in fields not far from the Delaware state line. Today, clumps of longleaf stand together like gangly kids at recess, their eponymous green needles shooting out like pompoms in every direction.

But longleaf is not native to Maryland, and many scientists believe they should not be planted at Plum Creek, or anywhere outside of their natural range. These relatively young trees are part of an experiment to determine if human intervention could help the pines migrate north as climate change alters its natural range.

Not everyone’s onboard. Assisted migration has been accused of being expensive and risky, a case of humans playing God.

But “I do not believe longleaf pine could move quickly enough at the rate the climate is changing,” explains Dr Deborah Landau, a TNC restoration ecologist.

Landau says that, on Facebook, TNC’s longleaf project has been accused of “playing the hand of God”. She dismisses the criticism. “There’s so little nature left that we haven’t already had a heavy hand in,” she says.

Despite the detractors, Landau has seen a shift in attitudes about assisted migration in the decade since Ricciardi and Simberloff’s article was published.

“Now that climate change is here, people are more open to the prospect of aiding species that won’t be able to keep up,” she says. “It’s happened. It’s happening. We need to respond.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/08/planting-trees-assisted-migration-climate-change

The suggestion nature cannot keep up with climate change is not supported by historical evidence.

The Younger Dryas was an abrupt multi-degree Northern Hemisphere return to ice age conditions which occurred 12,800 years ago and lasted around 1,300 years. The initial cooling may have occurred in as short timeframe as a few months, certainly no more than a handful of years – orders of magnitude faster than today’s global warming.

Until now, it was thought that the mini ice age took a decade or so to take hold, on the evidence provided by Greenland ice cores. Not so, say William Patterson of the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon, Canada, and his colleagues. 

The group studied a mud core from an ancient lake, Lough Monreagh, in western Ireland. Using a scalpel they sliced off layers 0.5 to 1 millimetre thick, each representing up to three months of time. No other measurements from the period have approached this level of detail. 

Carbon isotopes in each slice revealed how productive the lake was and oxygen isotopes gave a picture of temperature and rainfall. They show that at the start of the Big Freeze, temperatures plummeted and lake productivity stopped within months, or a year at most. “It would be like taking Ireland today and moving it up to Svalbard” in the Arctic, says Patterson, who presented the findings at the BOREAS conference in Rovaniemi, Finland, on 31 October. 

Read more: https://www.sott.net/article/196671-Mini-Ice-Age-Took-Hold-Of-Europe-In-Just-Months

The multi-degree return to warm conditions which followed the Younger Dryas was also extremely rapid (see the graph at the top of this page).

My point is, most Northern Hemisphere species alive today survived past abrupt climate shifts both up and down, of far greater magnitude and pace than today’s gentle global warming. The abrupt Younger Dryas climate shift was disruptive, but it was not a significant extinction event. Nature is resilient, it does not need our help.

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July 12, 2020 at 12:01AM