Natural Variability is the get-out-of-jail card for climate modelers that lasts 30 years

What does a climate scientist say when they can’t predict the climate on a local, regional, or continental scale, in the near future or the historic past, and they can’t do rain, clouds, humidity or drought either?

They say the models are better than ever, and any discrepancy is just natural variability.

Climate modelers are prepared now for 30 more years of failure:

‘Most Of The Globe’ Could Experience ‘No Warming’ For 30 Years Due To Temperature-Driving Internal Variability

By Kenneth Richard on 13. July 2020, NoTricksZone

A new study documents the dominance of internal variability in decadal-scale global temperature changes and suggests we may experience a global cooling trend during the next 15 or even 30 years despite rising greenhouse gases.

Maher et al. (2020) acknowledge that internal variability in global surface temperature variations is “a difficult concept to communicate” because we have very few observations of its impact and so we must rely on assumptions about how the climate system might work.

From the paper:

We confirm that in the short-term, surface temperature trend projections are dominated by internal variability, with […]

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July 15, 2020 at 12:15PM

By Die kalte Sonne

Atlantic region near Iceland has cooled over the past 120 years. Image: NASA (public domain)

(German text translated by P. Gosselin)

There are areas of the world that stubbornly resist “global warming”. These include an oceanic region near Iceland where sea surface temperatures have cooled by almost 1°C in the last 120 years.

Allan & Allan 2019 have examined the “cold blob” more closely and suspect that the summer ice melt will cause cold melt water to flow into the ocean, which will then lead to the winter cold of the sea area.

The researchers disagree with the model by Stefan Rahmstorf from Potsdam, who suggested a weakening of the Gulf Stream as the cause of the “cold blob”.

Here’s the abstract of Allan & Allan 2019:

Seasonal Changes in the North Atlantic Cold Anomaly: The Influence of Cold Surface Waters From Coastal Greenland and Warming Trends Associated With Variations in Subarctic Sea Ice Cover

Worldwide sea surface temperatures (SST) have increased on average by about 1 °C since 1900 with the exception of a region of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre near 50°N which has cooled by up to 0.9 °C over the same period, generating the negative feature on temperature anomaly maps which has been colloquially described by Rahmstorf et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2554) as the “cold blob” (abbreviated here CB). This unique long‐term surface cooling trend is most evident in February, but in August net warming is observed even at CB epicenter and the CB itself is reduced to a mere “warming hole.” These seasonal changes in the intensity of the CB are the product of two separate factors: (1) a long‐term winter cooling specific for the CB region which appears to be associated with cooling of Greenland coastal waters in autumn, plausibly linked to summer meltwater from icebergs and sea ice and (2) summer warming effects which derive from (a) dramatic reduction in summer sea ice cover in the sub‐Arctic over the last 30 years that allows enhanced absorption of sunlight by the new open water in summer and (b) an unusual period of increased summer sub‐Arctic ice cover in the early twentieth century, which lowers the SST baseline measured from 1900, thus increasing the calculated linear rate of change of SST with time. Both of these effects could contribute to the observed Arctic amplification of warming.”

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July 15, 2020 at 10:36AM

South Brazil -10°C frost

Minus 10 °C!! Not so cold at this time of year since 1991 / August SC didn’t register a minimum temperature of negative two digits since 8/2/91

It is the lowest temperature ever registered at this time of year in the SC high mountains.

From CLIMATERRA (Ronaldo Coutinho e Piter Scheuer)
PREVISÃO E MONITORAMENTO CLIMATICO. (Climate Forecast and Monitoring)

Please let me know if I translated this (generally) correctly.

https://twitter.com/Climaterra/status/1283328967555133440?s=09

Thanks to Martin Siebert for this link

The post Record cold in Southern Brazil appeared first on Ice Age Now.

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July 15, 2020 at 10:19AM

We’ve been given notice by our hosting provider that we need to move off the site. The reason is that we were suddenly faced with a big increase in hosting costs, and it wasn’t tenable. (Where’s big oil when you need them?) So they told us we had to move.

Therefore we are moving back to wordpress.com, where we started back in 2007. We will be picking up where we left off when we moved two years ago and migrating all the content of the last two years back to the original site (which I retained in case of just such an emergency).

So, if WUWT becomes flakey or offline at times over the next few days, don’t worry. We have it all backed up.

Thanks for your understanding and patience. – Anthony

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July 15, 2020 at 10:04AM