Month: July 2020

Climate models: No warming for 30 years – possibly


Instead of promoting meaningless climate thresholds, targets etc., alarmists might want to take a closer look at the neglected topic of natural factors.
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A new study demonstrates how a prolonged warming pause or even global cooling may happen in coming years despite increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases — caused by natural climatic variability, says The GWPF.

Natural climatic variability has always been a topic that contains a lot of unknowns, but it has been rarely explicitly stated just how little we know about it.

Such variability has been habitually underplayed as it was “obvious” that the major driver of global temperature was the accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, with natural variability a weaker effect.

But the global temperature data of this century demonstrate that natural variability has dominated in the form of El Ninos.

‘Doesn’t matter’, came the reply, ‘just wait and the signal of greenhouse warming will emerge out of the noise of natural climatic variability.’

How long will we have to wait for that signal? Quite a long time, according to some researchers as more papers acknowledge that natural climatic variability has a major, if not a dominant influence on global temperature trends.

With the usual proviso concerning climatic predictions there seems to be a growing number of research papers suggesting that the global average temperature of at least the next five years will remain largely unchanged. The reason: natural climatic variability.

Only last week the UK Met Office produced figures suggesting that there is only a 1 in 34 chance that the 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded for the next five year period.

Now a new paper by climate modellers extends such predictions, suggesting that because of natural variability the average global temperature up to 2049 could remain relatively unchanged – even with the largest increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

Continued here.

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July 15, 2020 at 02:03AM

A Short History of Climate Alarmism

A GWPF reader’s guide to failed predictions 

One of the perennial sources of amusement among sceptics is to look back at the crazy things scientists and activists were saying about global warming back in the early days, when the scaremongering first kicked off.

Who can forget, for example, James Hansen’s notorious speculation in 1988 that large chunks of Manhattan would disappear under the rising waters in the first decades after the millennium? Fortunately, being a thick-skinned fellow, the failure of even small chunks of New York to disappear in the last thirty years since seems to have dented his confidence not one jot, and he cheerfully fends of allegations of alarmism, putting them down to the ignorance of the general public. 

Or what about climate scientist David Viner at the University of East Anglia who told the Independent 20 years ago – apparently with a straight face – that snowfall was going to become “a very rare and exciting event” and that children “just aren’t going to know what snow is”? That one hasn’t turned out too well either.

On the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the first IPCC report in August 1990, we thought it was time to look again at some of climate science’s finest scare-mongering predictions from back in the early days, and to see how things have turned out in reality.

To that end, we are preparing “A short history of climate alarmism” — with the help of our readers.

We are inviting you to send us papers, news articles and web links to 1980-90s climate predictions that we should include. You are of course welcome to send us your thoughts about what the observational data today is telling us about reality. There are no prizes, but a GWPF guide to the most notorious and failed predictions in recent decades should provide hours of fun. 

Send your suggestions and links to harry.wilkinson@thegwpf.com

Thank you for your help and contribution.

The GWPF team

The post A Short History of Climate Alarmism appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).

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July 15, 2020 at 01:58AM

Plastics Appreciation Month!

“Plastic is light, easy to store and transport, comes in an endless variety of textures and shapes and can hold almost anything…. Unfortunately, plastic is much more difficult to recycle than materials like glass, aluminum or paper.” – Eureka! Recycling

The eco-snoops and lifestyle police don’t like plastic, the stuff of oil and gas. But the rest of the world lives by plastic–and benefits. The boom in feedstocks has produced a boom in plastic capacity. Reported Beth Gardiner for Yale Environmental 360 (December 19, 2019):

Companies like ExxonMobil, Shell, and Saudi Aramco are ramping up output of plastic — which is made from oil and gas, and their byproducts — to hedge against the possibility that a serious global response to climate change might reduce demand for their fuels, analysts say. Petrochemicals, the category that includes plastic, now account for 14 percent of oil use, and are expected to drive half of oil demand growth between now and 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says. The World Economic Forum predicts plastic production will double in the next 20 years.

Bottom line: “Since 2010, companies have invested more than $200 billion in 333 plastic and other chemical projects in the U.S.”

From beverage containers to combs, there are literally thousands of plastics in use at every level of economic life.

A Skunk at the Party

Enter the ‘Plastic Free July’ initiative sponsored by the Australian-based Plastic Free Foundation, whose purpose is to “work towards our vision of seeing a world free of plastic waste.”

Waste? By me? You? Who?

From the vantage point of the freely acting individual consumer, this is a ruse by nanny-state outsiders aiming to diminish, if not shut down, the plastics industry as part of the Green New Deal’s goal of keeping oil and gas in the ground.

In fact, plastics users (everyone) has choices and a budget constraint. Disposable plastics compete against lost time collecting and washing (and even buying) dishware and silverware. Throw-away is convenience versus washing non-disposable items. Littering (including ocean waste) is a separate issue that requires separate action from the production and use of plastics per se.)

The PFF Pitch–and Recycling Issue

The Plastic Free Foundation’s latest annual report states (p. 4):

Plastic pollution is increasing and our recycling systems are being challenged. This makes waste avoidance more important than ever and we, as an organisation, have an important role in this.

Recyling itself should be on trial, not plastics. Unprofitable recycling indicates that more resources go into recycling than are saved by it. Think of the trucks (most diesel) that collect this trash and the energy and labor used to separate materials.

Even green groups decry recycling as greenwashing. “So why does recycling make us feel so damn good?” asks EarthDay.org. “Part of the problem, and persuasion, of recycling is the narrative developed to support it.” The whole story of today’s recycle predicaments is laid bare:

China was a booming manufacturing market and needed all the raw materials it could get, so the country took all our recyclables, regardless of quality. This demand, combined with China’s lax environmental regulations, shifted global recycling from multi-stream to single-stream. People put all their recyclables — glass, paper, plastics, food scraps, pizza boxes, Styrofoam, whatever — into one bin, which waste companies collected and sent to China for a hefty sum.

With all this plastic coming into China, trash islands popped up, waterways and oceans filled with plastics and animals made snacks out of bottlecaps and bags. Meanwhile, countries like the U.S. ignored it. They kept collecting whatever passed as recycling and shipping it to the other side of the world. Out of sight, out of mind.

Then China reversed course. The article continues:

That all stopped in 2018, when China, eager to address its environmental problems and improve its public image, abruptly banned plastic imports of anything with more than 0.5 percent contamination. America’s current recycling contamination levels are 25 percent, meaning one of four items in our recycling bins shouldn’t be there.

In other words, when China stopped accepting our poor recycling habits, we were left holding the trash bag.

What to do now? The eco-snoops want to regulate our usage to only “absolutely necessary” plastics. States End Plastics Pollution campaign manager David Ayer. “Everything else we have to cut off.”

After extensive consultation the Foundation created a new online platform for Plastic Free July 2019 to share resources, ideas, and stories and even better help people to reduce single-use plastic waste in their homes and communities.

Inbuilt evaluation tools help participants discover the plastics in their life and measure their success as well as allowing us to track the trends in the
common plastics that households use. We were proud to launch the Plastic Free July 2019 campaign on 1 July at Kings Park with Western Australian Environment Minister, the Hon Stephen Dawson MLC, who also pledged
his own personal plastic free challenge. Plastic Free July is a collaborative effort with participants not only changing their own behaviour and reducing waste but also making a difference in their communities.

Waste–or Agenda?

Plastic waste? From the vantage point of the freely acting individual consumer–or from outsiders with an agenda of shutting down the plastics industry as part of a Green New Deal goal of keeping oil and gas in the ground.

A Reversed Mission?

The Foundation’s annual report (p. 5) lists six core values:

  • · honesty and integrity in every decision
  • · inclusiveness of people, ideas, visions and approaches
  • · solutions-focused using a pragmatic approach
  • · being authentic in our approach to achieve our vision and mission
  • · collaboration is key
  • · a belief that small changes add up to make a big difference

The post Plastics Appreciation Month! appeared first on Master Resource.

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July 15, 2020 at 01:09AM

New Video : Fake News Works

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July 15, 2020 at 12:52AM