Daily News

Hurricane trend detection

From SpringerLink

A new paper from Drs. Loehle and Staehling. Here is the abstract and references, i.e. the non-paywalled content.

I think the following is money shot.

Hurricane and major hurricane landfall counts exhibited no significant overall trend over 167 years of available data, nor did accumulated cyclone energy over the continental USA over 119 years of available data, although shorter-term trends were evident in all three datasets.

Published: 

Craig Loehle & Erica Staehling

Natural Hazards (2020) Cite this article

Abstract

Because a change in the frequency (number/year) of hurricanes could be a result of climate change, we analyzed the historical record of Atlantic basin and US landfalling hurricanes, as well as US continental accumulated cyclone energy to evaluate issues related to trend detection.

Hurricane and major hurricane landfall counts exhibited no significant overall trend over 167 years of available data, nor did accumulated cyclone energy over the continental USA over 119 years of available data, although shorter-term trends were evident in all three datasets.

Given the χ2 distribution evinced by hurricane and major hurricane counts, we generated synthetic series to test the effect of segment length, demonstrating that shorter series were increasingly likely to exhibit spurious trends. Compared to synthetic data with the same mean, the historical all-storm data were more likely to exhibit short-term trends, providing some evidence for long-term persistence at timescales below 10 years.

Because this might be due to known climate modes, we examined the relationship between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and hurricane frequency in light of these short-term excursions. We found that while ratios of hurricane counts with AMO phase matched expectations, statistical tests were less clear due to noise. Over a period of 167 years, we found that an upward trend of roughly 0.7/century is sufficient to be detectable with 80% confidence over the range from 1 to 21 storms/year. Storm energy data 1900–2018 over land were also analyzed.

The trend was again zero. The pattern of spurious trends for short segments was again found. Results for AMO periods were similar to count data. Atlantic basin all storms and major storms (1950–2018) did not exhibit any trend over the whole period or after 1990. Major storms 1950–1989 exhibited a significant downward trend.

All-storm basin scale storms exhibited short-term trends matching those expected from a Poisson process. A new test for Poisson series was developed based on the 95% distribution of slopes for simulated data across a range of series lengths. Because short data series are inherently likely to yield spurious trends, care is needed when interpreting hurricane trend data.

References

  1. Bender MA, Knutson TR, Tuleya RE, Sirutis JJ, Vecchi GA, Garner ST, Held IM (2010) Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science 327:454–458Article Google Scholar 
  2. Coxe S, West SG, Aiken LS (2009) The analysis of count data: a gentle introduction to Poisson regression and its alternatives. J Pers Assess 91:121–136. https://doi.org/10.1080/00223890802634175Article Google Scholar 
  3. Curry J (2008) Potential increased hurricane activity in a greenhouse warmed world. In: MacCracken MC, Moore F, Topping JC (eds) Sudden and disruptive climate change: exploring the real risks and how we can avoid them. Earthscan, London, pp 29–37Google Scholar 
  4. Elsner JB, Bossak BH (2001) Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate. J Clim 14:4341–4350. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4341:baoush>2.0.co;2Article Google Scholar 
  5. Elsner JB, Schmertmann CP (1993) Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity. Weather Forecast 8:345–351. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0345:ierspo>2.0.co;2Article Google Scholar 
  6. Elsner JB, Jagger T, Niu X-F (2000) Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th Century. Geophys Res Lett 27:1743–1746. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000gl011453Article Google Scholar 
  7. Elsner JB, Bossak BH, Niu X-F (2001) Secular changes to the ENSO-U.S. hurricane relationship. Geophys Res Lett 28:4123–4126. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001gl013669Article Google Scholar 
  8. Emanuel KA (1987) The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature 326:483–485Article Google Scholar 
  9. Emanuel KA (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436:686–688. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906Article Google Scholar 
  10. Goldenberg SB, Landsea CW, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Gray WM (2001) The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: causes and implications. Science 293:474–479. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1060040Article Google Scholar 
  11. Hall T, Hereid K (2015) The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughts. Geophys Res Lett 42:3482–3485. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl063652Article Google Scholar 
  12. Hoyos CD, Agudelo PA, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2006) Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity. Science 312:94–97. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1123560Article Google Scholar 
  13. Klotzbach PJ (2006) Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986–2005). Geophys Res Lett 33:L10805. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl025881Article Google Scholar 
  14. Klotzbach PJ (2010) On the Madden-Julian oscillation-Atlantic hurricane relationship. J Climate 23:282–293. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2978.1Article Google Scholar 
  15. Klotzbach PJ, Gray WM (2006) Causes of the unusually destructive 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Bull Am Meteor Soc 87:1325–1334. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-10-1325Article Google Scholar 
  16. Klotzbach PJ, Gray WM (2008) Multidecadal variability in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. J Clim 21:3929–3935. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2162.1Article Google Scholar 
  17. Klotzbach PJ, Landsea CW (2015) Extremely intense hurricanes: revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 years. J Clim 28:7621–7629Article Google Scholar 
  18. Klotzbach PJ, Bowen SG, Pielke R, Bell M (2018) Continental US hurricane landfall frequency and associated damage. Am Met Soc. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0184.1Article Google Scholar 
  19. Knapp KR, Kruk MC, Levinson DH, Diamond HJ, Neumann CJ (2010) The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): unifying tropical cyclone best track data. Bull Am Meteor Soc 91:363–376Article Google Scholar 
  20. Knutson TR, Tuleya RE (2004) Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. J Clim 17:3477–3495. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3477:iocwos>2.0.co;2Article Google Scholar 
  21. Knutson TR, Sirutis JJ, Garner ST, Held IM, Tuleya RE (2007) Simulation of the recent multidecadal increase of Atlantic hurricane activity using an 18-km-grid regional model. Bull Am Meteor Soc 88:1549–1565. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-88-10-1549Article Google Scholar 
  22. Knutson TR, Sirutis JJ, Garner ST, Vecchi GA, Held IM (2008) Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nat Geosci 1:359–364. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo202Article Google Scholar 
  23. Knutson T, Camargo SJ, Chan JCI, Emmanuel K, Ho C-H, Kossin J, Mohapatra M, Satoh M, Sugi M, Walsh K, Wu L (2019a) Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment: part I. Detection and attribution. Bull Am Met Soc 100(10):1987–2007Article Google Scholar 
  24. Knutson T, Camargo SJ, Chan JCI, Emmanuel K, Ho C-H, Kossin J, Mohapatra M, Satoh M, Sugi M, Walsh K, Wu L (2019b) Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment: part II projected response to anthropogenic warming. Bull Am Met Soc. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1Article Google Scholar 
  25. Kossin JP (2017) Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods. Nature 541:390–393Article Google Scholar 
  26. Kossin JP, Knapp KR, Vimont DJ, Murnane RJ, Harper BA (2007) A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophys Res Lett 34:L04815. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl028836Article Google Scholar 
  27. Kossin JP, Olander TL, Knapp KR (2013) Trend analysis with a new global record of tropical cyclone intensity. J Clim 26:9960–9976Article Google Scholar 
  28. Koutsoyiannis D (2013) Hydrology and change. Hydrol Sci J 58:1177–1197. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.801626Article Google Scholar 
  29. Kunke KE, Karl TR, Brooks H, Kossin J, Lawrimore JH, Arndt D, Bosart L, Changnon D, Cutter SL, Doesken N, Emanuel K, Groisman PY, Katz RW, Knutson T, O’Brien J, Paciorek CJ, Peterson TC, Redmond K, Robinson D, Trapp J, Vose R, Weaver S, Wehner M, Wolter K, Wuebbles D (2013) Monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 94:499–514. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1Article Google Scholar 
  30. Landsea CW (2015) Comments on “Monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms: state of knowledge”. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96:1175–1176. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00211.1Article Google Scholar 
  31. Landsea CW, Franklin JL (2013) Atlantic hurricane database uncertainty and presentation of a new database format. Mon Weather Rev 141:3576–3592. https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00254.1Article Google Scholar 
  32. Landsea CW, Nicholls N, Gray WM, Avila LA (1996) Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades. Geophys Res Lett 23:1697–1700. https://doi.org/10.1029/96gl01029Article Google Scholar 
  33. Landsea CW, Pielke RA Jr, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Knaff JA (1999) Atlantic basin hurricanes: indices of climatic changes. Clim Change 42:89–129. https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1005416332322Article Google Scholar 
  34. Landsea CW, Harper BA, Hoarau K, Knaff JA (2006) Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science 313:452–454. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128448Article Google Scholar 
  35. Moon I-J, Kim S-H, Chan JCL (2019) Climate change and tropical cyclone trend. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1222-3Article Google Scholar 
  36. Nyberg J, Malmgren BA, Winter A, Jury MR, Kilbourne KH, Quinn TM (1980s) Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years. Nature 447:698–701. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05895Article Google Scholar 
  37. Pielke RA Jr, Gratz J, Landsea CW, Collins D, Saunders MA, Musulin R (2008) Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1900–2005. Nat Haz Rev 9:29–42. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)Article Google Scholar 
  38. Saunders MA, Lea AS (2008) Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity. Nature 451:557–560. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06422Article Google Scholar 
  39. Solow AR, Moore LJ (2002) Testing for trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity, 1900–98. J Climate 15:3111–3114. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3111:tftina>2.0.co;2Article Google Scholar 
  40. Staehling EM, Truchelut RE (2016) Diagnosing United States hurricane landfall risk: an alternative to count-based methodologies. Geophys Res Lett 43:8798–8805. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070117Article Google Scholar 
  41. Trenary L, DelSole T, Camargo SJ, Tippett MK (2019) Are midtwentieth century forced changes in North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity detectable? Geophys Res Lett 46:3378–3386. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081725Article Google Scholar 
  42. Truchelut RE, Hart RE (2011) Quantifying the possible existence of undocumented Atlantic warm-core cyclones in NOAA/CIRES 20th Century reanalysis data. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046756Article Google Scholar 
  43. Truchelut RE, Staehling EM (2017) An energetic perspective on United States tropical cyclone landfall droughts. Geophys Res Lett 44:12013–12019. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076071Article Google Scholar 
  44. Vecchi GA, Knutson TR (2011) Estimating annual numbers of Atlantic hurricanes missing from the HURDAT database (1978–1965) using ship track density. J Clim 24:1736–1746Article Google Scholar 
  45. Webster PJ, Holland GJ, Curry JA, Chang H-R (2005) Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309:1844–1846. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1116448Article Google Scholar 
  46. Webster PJ, Curry JA, Liu J, Holland GJ (1713c) Response to comment on “Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment”. Science 311:1713c. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1121564Article Google Scholar 
  47. Zhang W, Villarini G, Vecchi GA, Murakami H (2017) Impacts of the Pacific Meridional Mode on landfalling North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Clim Dyn 50:991–1006Article Google Scholar 
  48. Zhao M, Held IM (2012) TC-permitting GCM simulations of hurricane frequency response to sea surface temperature anomalies projected for the late-twenty-first century. J Clim 25:2995–3009. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00313.1

Like this:

Like Loading…

Related

via Watts Up With That?

https://ift.tt/31YGeen

August 15, 2020 at 04:29PM

Leave a comment