Covid-19 CFR and IFR Confused

Twitter thread by Steve McIntyre

New article in journal published by Cambridge Univ Press says that testimony to House Oversight Committee in March 2020 mixed up case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR) for influenza, resulting in major error. (I report this w/o parsing)

2/ author Ronald Brown (of University of Waterloo in Ontario) said that House Committee was told that estimated mortality was 10 times higher than seasonal influenza. This was prime argument for lockdown.

3/ Brown observed that New England Journal article, just prior to House testimony, had (incorrectly) said that CFR for seasonal influenza was 0.1% whereas 0.1% is actually the value for IFR (WHO).

4/ Brown observed that CFR and IFR have different definitions in epidemiology and gives a lengthy exposition.

5/ Brown curiously didn’t identify the person who, according to Brown, gave the wrong benchmark information on fatality rates for seasonal influenza to Congress, linking to CSPAN in his footnotes.

6/ the expert who, according to Brown, made the 10x error in testimony to Congress is, by now, well known to all of us. It was, needless to say, Anthony Fauci.

7/ I urge readers to read original article. I am not personally familiar with definitional distinctions emphasized by Brown and haven’t verified his claims. Brown is at reputable university and journal is by reputable publisher (Cambridge Univ).

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/disaster-medicine-and-public-health-preparedness/article/public-health-lessons-learned-from-biases-in-coronavirus-mortality-overestimation/7ACD87D8FD2237285EB667BB28DCC6E9

Originally tweeted by Stephen McIntyre (@ClimateAudit) on September 7, 2020.

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September 8, 2020 at 08:14AM

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