Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that have caught my eye this past 12(!) weeks.

Pattern Recognition Methods to Separate Forced Responses from Internal Variability in Climate Model Ensembles and Observations https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/20/8693/353735/Pattern-Recognition-Methods-to-Separate-Forced

An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed [link]

Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs: an integrated strategy [link]

A new study of ocean salinity finds substantial amplification of the global water cycle https://eurekalert.org/e/J7Q4 .

Scientists just discovered past ocean carbon budget estimates are twice as wrong as they thought. The CO2 sink estimate can be doubled (from 2.8 to 5.7 PgC/yr) just by varying the measurement depth rather than using a fixed depth. https://pnas.org/content/117/18/9679

Clear sky urban heat island (UHI) averages from 0.85C to 1.91C across the USA. Most thermometers, esp with long term records, are in urbanized areas. Yet somehow, temp adjustments for UHI are near-zero and it is considered a “non-factor”. https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0924271620302082?dgcid=raven_sd_search_email

Surface temperature trend in Antarctica [link]

New paper on Arctic Amplification [link]

Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ARE NOT CONSTANT IN THE OCEAN!! this has HUGE implications for paleoproxy dating [link]

What has caused the sea level rise and its decadal variation since 1900? In short: thermal expansion + land water storage + ice sheets and glaciers mass loss. A new study synthesizes the up-to-date observations and close the sea level budget since 1900. https://nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2591-3

Using information theory to quantify the causal effect of specific ENSO phases on Pacific Northwest temperature anomalies. [link]

Nice hypothesis by Yang et al. about the ocean’s distinct role in tropical expansion. Mean circulation constrains changes in SST gradients, which influence Hadley cell width. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JD033158

Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty [link]

Missed wind patterns are throwing off climate forecasts of winds and storms and attribution studies [link]

Interesting: Earthquakes could be triggered by streams of positively charged ions ejected by explosions on the surface of the sun, according to a new study https://mol.im/a/8527523

A new article of ours on predictability “Is Weather Chaotic? Coexisting Chaotic and Non-Chaotic Attractors within Lorenz Models“ [link]

We quantify this using a new metric which we call the “Transient Sea Level Sensitivity” https://os.copernicus.org/preprints/os-2020-68/

Meridional ocean carbon transport [link]

Global methane emissions reach a record high [link]

North Atlantic anthropogenic carbon uptake is sustained by subsurface (mode/intermediate) waters in the upper limb of the overturning circulation [link]

Ancient sea levels in South Africa may offer modern analogues [link]

“Drought onset and termination in India” that has appeared in JGR-Atmospheres.https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JD032871?af=R

Delayed response of a global temperature response after emission mitigation [link]

US rivers and lakes are shrinking for a surprising reason: cows [link]

Uncertainty estimation in regional models of long-term GIA uplift and sea level change: an overview [link]

Deep Ocean Temperatures through Time https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-83

“Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment” [link]

“Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades” https://nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0815-z

The future of the carbon cycle in a changing climate [link]

Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction [link]

New paleoclimate reconstruction of the holocene (last 12k years). While global temps are clearly higher today than any time in the past 4000 years or so, its hard to make firm claims about earlier periods given uncertainties and temporal resolution: https://nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0530-7

If you’ve ever wondered about the reason for the weird warming hole in the North Atlantic, read this: https://nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0819-8 We are able to show that the warming hole is driven by changes in the AMOC, the subpolar gyre and a cloud feedback.

Helpful review of the science on carbon-cycle feedbacks and “tipping points” Earth may hit as it warms. One takeaway: feedbacks like permafrost thaw or forest diebacks could add ~0.5°C extra warming by 2100 (not as much as often feared, but still a lot!) https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2020-16/

The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations [link]

Tamsin Edwards: the Arctic heat wave [link]

Review paper on ocean acidification [link]

Ross McKitrick: The flaw in relying on worst-case scenario climate model [link]

“Simple Models of Delayed Warming in the East Pacific” https://nicklutsko.github.io/blog/2020/06/22/Simple-Models-East-Pacific-Warming

Technologies and policy

Why is it so difficult to motivate global society to implement greenhouse gas emissions reduction policies if these policies confer not only environmental but also economic benefit? One reason is near term costs. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/abb413

Can nanoparticles make fossil fuels cleaner? [link]

Climate change legislation around the world has avoided one years worth of emissions (around 40Gt) since 2000. [link]

New paper dramatically revises downwards global population projections to 2100 [link]

The climate fix you’ve been waiting for:  rock dust? [link]

The allure and challenge of using crushed rocks to capture billions of tons of carbon dioxide from the air My story digs into chemistry and economics, along with details on the large-scale trials underway right now. [link]

Food–energy–water implications of negative emissions technologies in a +1.5 °C future @NatureClimate [link]

Negative emissions and the long history of carbon removal [link]

New research article in The Electricity Journal estimate the number of people without access to reliable electricity services globally! We find that, about 3.5 billion lack access . [link]

Bird death from turbine collisions dropped by 72% when one of three turbine blades was painted black, compared with unpainted turbines at the same wind farm. 1/3 https://eenews.net/stories/1063712423

Who should be responsible for removing CO2 from the atmosphere? | https://j.mp/3462d5G

About science and scientists

Scholarship suppression: theoretical perspectives and emerging trends [link]

When an empirical conclusion is likely, but morally objectionable, people say others should deviate from accuracy and believe the conclusion less. https://psyarxiv.com/7r5yb

Peer review, politics and pluralism [link]

via Climate Etc.


September 17, 2020 at 01:49PM

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