Victoria: it’s democracy and medical science, and getting better fast

The good news: As I predicted, Victoria is doing better than the modelers said. Many people focus on the “daily new cases” but the “unknown source cases” is a better, more forward looking tool. And the success there in Victoria (finally) augers very well.

In Newspoll today we find — also as I predicted right from the outset of the pandemic  — that health is priority one for most voters, and that, as drastic as the restrictions are in Victoria, most voters are happy to give up some freedom temporarily in order to save, not just lives, but the hardship and unknown health effects.

Right-leaning small business owners and entrepreneurs are much more comfortable taking risks, but most of the population are not. It’s a personality type thing. It’s not going to change.

The blunt numbers: Despite the strict restrictions, fully 71% of Victorians view the restrictions as “about right” or “too lenient”. One quarter say they are “too strict”. The biggest fear at the moment of 56% of Victorians is relaxing restrictions too soon. Though 39% are worried things are moving too slowly. Given the poor modeling, it’s easy to understand the latter point of view. It’s virtually certain […]

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September 22, 2020 at 04:19AM

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