Nicola Scafetta: Jupiter’s orbital eccentricity may drive ~60yr and millennial climate cycles.

Figure 3. The 60‐year eccentricity function (blue) of Jupiter (see Figure 2) against: (a) the HadCRUT global surface temperature record (Morice et al., 2012) detrended of its quadratic polynomial fit f(t) ¼ a(t − 1850)2 + b (cf. Scafetta, 2010, 2016) (correlation coefficient r ¼ 0:5, p < 0.01); (b) the 5‐year running average of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall from 1813 to 1998 (Agnihotri & Dutta, 2003) (correlation coefficient r ¼ 0:5, p < 0.01)

 Plain Language Summary 

The physical origin of the modulation of the cloud system and of many of the Earth’s climate oscillations from the decadal to the millennial timescales is still unclear, despite its importance in climate science. One of the most prominent oscillations has a period of about 60 years and is found in a number of geophysical records such as temperature reconstructions, aurora sights, Indian rainfalls, ocean climatic records, and in many others. These oscillations might emerge from the internal variability of the climate system, but increasing evidence also points toward a solar or astronomical origin.

Herein we speculate whether the oscillations of the orbits of the planetary system could modulate the interplanetary dust flux falling on the Earth, then modifying the cloud coverage. We find that the orbital eccentricity of Jupiter presents a strong 60‐year oscillation that is well correlated with several climatic records and with the 60‐year oscillation found in long meteorite fall records since the 7th century. Since meteorite falls are the most macroscopic aspect of infalling space dust, we conclude that the interplanetary dust should modulate the formation of the clouds and, thus, drive climate changes.

Scafetta, N., Milani, F., & Bianchini, A. (2020).
A 60‐year cycle in the Meteorite fall frequency suggests a possible
interplanetary dust forcing of the Earth’s climate driven by planetary
oscillations.

Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL089954.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL089954

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September 24, 2020 at 03:06AM

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