Did Lockdown Work? Doesn’t Look That Way

Swedish mortality rates are “considerably fewer than Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, which all implemented much stricter policies,” says new study.
_____________

Did Lockdown Work? Doesn’t Look That Way

Jimmy Walter

Most of my “friends” are convinced the virus and the vaccine [and man-made global warming] are real.  When I corner them on why, they tell me they are “believing the science”. When I ask them for the science they are believing, they cannot give it to me. They admit they are just believing the “best looking” (most convincing) talking head like Fauci who changes his mandates like the wind. They have been told that the vaccine is the only way to stop the virus. They can’t believe the media and government would lie so boldly. When I give them alternative info, they dismiss it and me, saying things like, “let’s agree to disagree”, like it is some religion (which it is) and you can choose which you follow based on faith and presentation, not facts.

Here are excerpts from an August 2020 paper by Christian Bjørnskov of Aarhus University and the Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm.

I have highlighted what I consider to be  the most important points in bold.

Did Lockdown Work? An Economist’s Cross-Country Comparison

I compare weekly general mortality rates in the first half of the year in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 in 24 European countries that took very different policy measures against the virus at different points in time. Estimating the effects of these policy measures as captured by the Blavatnik Centre’s Covid 19 policy indices and taking the endogeneity of policy responses into account, the results suggest that stricter lockdown policies have not been associated with lower mortality.

While weekly mortality counts all actual deaths in the country, Covid 19-related deaths are counted as deaths where the deceased tested positive for the virus but where the death is not necessarily caused by the virus.

As indicated by previous research, policy responses to emergencies are often informed more by the promise of additional, unchecked power than the severity of the emergency.

The lockdowns in most Western countries have thrown the world into the most severe recession since World War II and the most rapidly developing recession ever seen in mature market economies. They have also caused an erosion of fundamental rights and the separation of powers in large part of the world as both democratic and autocratic regimes have misused their emergency powers and ignored constitutional limits to policy-making.

It is therefore important to evaluate whether and to which extent the lockdowns have worked as officially intended: to suppress the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and prevent deaths associated with it. Comparing weekly mortality in 24 European countries, the findings in this paper suggest that more severe lockdown policies have not been associated with lower mortality. In other words, the lockdowns have not worked as intended.

These general findings are consistent with the results of a previous paper using a synthetic control method to test the effects of Sweden’s absence of a lockdown. Although much has been claimed about Sweden’s relatively high mortality rate, compared to the other Nordic countries, the present data show that the country experienced 161 fewer deaths per million in the first 8 ten weeks, and 464 more deaths in weeks 11-22. In total, Swedish mortality rates are 14 percent higher than in the preceding three years, which is slightly more than France, but considerably fewer than Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom that all implemented much stricter policies.

…evidence from Sweden as well as the evidence presented here does not suggest that lockdowns have significantly affected the development of mortality in Europe. It has nevertheless wreaked economic havoc in most societies and may lead to a substantial number of additional deaths for other reasons. A British government report from April for example assessed that a limited lockdown could cause 185,000 excess deaths over the next years.

Evaluated as a whole, at a first glance, the lockdown policies of the Spring of 2020 therefore appear to be substantial long-run government failures.

#  # #

Stay safe. Not from the virus, but from the vaccine, Gates, Fauci, and the other lying, conniving, government thugs.

~”All democracies degenerate into Tyrannies – they are the two faces of the same, oscillating thing”

– Socrates

___________

See the entire paper here:

Electronic copy available at:

https://ssrn.com/abstract=3665588

https://www.datascienceassn.org/sites/default/files/Did%20Lockdown%20Work%20An%20Economist %E2%80%99s%20Cross-Country%20Comparison.pdf

 

The post Did Lockdown Work? Doesn’t Look That Way appeared first on Ice Age Now.

via Ice Age Now

https://ift.tt/3tuQ3NY

February 7, 2021 at 05:06PM

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s