Back in the day, anyone who said the climate of Earth could be stage-managed by humans would have been laughed off the stage, but times change. Not worth quoting much of this article, but in general it indicates some of the absurdity of current thinking on climate, based on computer models that don’t reflect reality, leading to the pursuit at vast expense of imaginary ‘solutions’.
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In 2017, a widely cited study used statistical tools to model how likely the world is to meet the Paris Agreement global temperature targets, says Phys.org.
The analysis found that on current trends, the planet had only a 5% chance of staying below 2 degrees Celsius warming this century—the international climate treaty’s supposed goal.
Now, the same authors have used their tools to ask: What emissions cuts would actually be required to meet the goal of 2 C warming, considered a threshold for climate stability and climate-related risks such as excessive heat, drought, extreme weather and sea level rise?
The University of Washington study finds that emissions reductions about 80% more ambitious than those in the Paris Agreement, or an average of 1.8% drop in emissions per year rather than 1% per year, would be enough to stay within 2 degrees. The results were published Feb. 9 in Nature’s open-access journal Communications Earth & Environment.
“A number of people have been saying, particularly in the past few years, that the emissions targets need to be more ambitious,” said lead author Adrian Raftery, a UW professor of statistics. “We went beyond that to ask in a more precise way: How much more ambitious do they need to be?”
The paper uses the same statistical approach to model the three main drivers of human-produced greenhouse gases: national population, gross domestic product per person and the amount of carbon emitted for each dollar of economic activity, known as carbon intensity.
It then uses a statistical model to show the range of likely future outcomes based on data and projections so far.
Even with updated methods and five more years of data, now spanning 1960 through 2015, the conclusion remains similar to the previous study: Meeting Paris Agreement targets would give only a 5% probability of staying below 2 degrees Celsius warming.
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
February 9, 2021 at 05:21AM