Friday Funny: nature makes a mockery of month-ahead model forecasts.

Sometimes, you just have to laugh. Earth is a complex system, and forecasting weather events in such a complex system is no easy task due to the built in entropy aka “chaos” of dynamic weather systems. The best we are able to forecast into the future with and skill is about 7 to 10 days. 30 years ago, the best was 5 days. We often criticize climate models for their attempts to forecast 10, 50, 100 years into the future, so it is instructive to look at what happens just a month ahead, as so brilliantly illustrated by these tweets from the Weather Channel.

The source of that Tweet is this article: February Temperature Outlook: Mild in Central, Eastern U.S.; Colder in Northwest

The say this: “February could be warmer than average in the Southern Plains and parts of the East” and supply this labeled graphic seen below.

Source: weatherchannel.com

But then, nature and chaos step in, they Tweet 20 days later:

And then…just three days later…..

So much for model forecasting skill less than a month ahead.

But we are expected to believe unverified climate models have skill years, decades, or even a century in advance.

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via Watts Up With That?

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February 19, 2021 at 05:18PM

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