Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #446

The Week That Was: 2021-03-13 (March 13, 2021)

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)

The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: The first people totalitarians destroy or silence are men of ideas and free minds.” Isaiah Berlin — Naturalized British philosopher

Number of the Week: – 5.28 billion tonnes (11,640 billion pounds)

THIS WEEK
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Fred Singer: The third edition of the popular book by the late Fred Singer; Hot Talk, Cold Science; has been released by the Independent Institute. It features updated and expanded sections by David Legates and Anthony Lupo. William Happer has a forward in addition to that by the late Frederick Seitz.

Accompanying the book’s release, David Theroux, Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Independent Institute, wrote a tribute to Singer summarizing Singer’s major scientific accomplishment and the personal friendship Theroux had with Singer. It is an appropriate tribute for this man of highly diverse talents. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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CO2 – Aerosol Balancing Act: Last week’s TWTW discussed how the major climate models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are manipulated using the cooling effect of aerosols with the warming effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) to achieve a IPCC’s desired balance with the surface temperature record (which is already manipulated) to claim that adding carbon dioxide will have a significant impact on surface temperatures.

The result of this manipulation is Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) for a doubling of CO2. Since the climate has never been stable (in equilibrium) their quest is questionable. [As used in this sense, aerosols are fine solid particles or liquid droplets suspended in the atmosphere that may be natural or human caused (anthropogenic). Examples of natural aerosols are volcanic emissions, fog, mist, dust, organic compounds released by vegetation, smoke form wildfires, etc. Examples of anthropogenic aerosols are particulate air pollutants, smoke from power plants and industrial processes. In the US and Western Europe, anthropogenic aerosols have been largely eliminated. In Asia and other developing regions, they remain a problem.]

In correspondence, UK’s Richard Courtney stated:

“None of the climate models – not one of them – could match the change in mean global temperature over the past century if it did not utilise a unique value of assumed cooling from aerosols. So, inputting actual values of the cooling effect (such as the determination by Penner et al.) would make every climate model provide a mismatch of the global warming it hindecasts and the observed global warming for the twentieth century.

“This mismatch would occur because all the global climate models and energy balance models are known to provide indications which are based on.

1. the assumed degree of forcings resulting from human activity that produce warming.

and

2. the assumed degree of anthropogenic aerosol cooling input to each model as a ‘fiddle factor’ to obtain agreement between past average global temperature and the model’s indications of average global temperature.

“More than two decades ago I published a peer-reviewed paper that showed the UK’s Hadley Centre general circulation model (GCM) could not model climate and only obtained agreement between past average global temperature and the model’s indications of average global temperature by forcing the agreement with an input of assumed anthropogenic aerosol cooling. And my paper demonstrated that the assumption of aerosol effects being responsible for the model’s failure was incorrect. [Boldface in original]

Courtney then discusses a 2007 paper by Jeffrey Kiehl, a colleague of Kevin Trenberth at the National Center for Atmospheric Research located in Boulder, Colorado. Courtney states:

“More recently but also long ago, in 2007, Kiehl published a paper that assessed 9 GCMs and two energy balance models.

“Kiehl found the same as my paper except that each model he assessed used a different aerosol ‘fix’ from every other model.”

“Kiehl says in his paper:

”’One curious aspect of this result is that it is also well known [Houghton et al., 2001] that the same models that agree in simulating the anomaly in surface air temperature differ significantly in their predicted climate sensitivity. The cited range in climate sensitivity from a wide collection of models is usually 1.5 to 4.5 deg C for a doubling of CO2, where most global climate models used for climate change studies vary by at least a factor of two in equilibrium sensitivity.

The question is: if climate models differ by a factor of 2 to 3 in their climate sensitivity, how can they all simulate the global temperature record with a reasonable degree of accuracy? Kerr [2007] and S. E. Schwartz et al. (Quantifying climate change–too rosy a picture? available at https://ift.tt/3tjwpnd, 2007) recently pointed out the importance of understanding the answer to this question. Indeed, Kerr [2007] referred to the present work and the current paper provides the ‘‘widely circulated analysis’’ referred to by Kerr [2007]. This report investigates the most probable explanation for such an agreement. It uses published results from a wide variety of model simulations to understand this apparent paradox between model climate responses for the 20th century, but diverse climate model sensitivity.’

“And, importantly, Kiehl’s paper says:

“’These results explain to a large degree why models with such diverse climate sensitivities all can simulate the global anomaly in surface temperature. The magnitude of applied anthropogenic total forcing compensates for the model sensitivity.’

‘And the ‘magnitude of applied anthropogenic total forcing’ is fixed in each model by the input value of aerosol forcing.

“Kiehl’s Figure 2 is for 9 GCMs and 2 energy balance models, and its title is:

“’Figure 2. Total anthropogenic forcing (W/m2) versus aerosol forcing (W/m2) from nine fully coupled climate models and two energy balance models used to simulate the 20th century.”

It shows that.

(a) each model uses a different value for “Total anthropogenic forcing” that is in the range 0.80 W/m^-2 to 2.02 W/m^-2

but

(b) each model is forced to agree with the rate of past warming by using a different value for “Aerosol forcing” that is in the range -1.42 W/m^-2 to -0.60 W/m^-2.

“In other words, the models use values of “Total anthropogenic forcing” that differ by a factor of more than 2.5 and they are ‘adjusted’ by using values of assumed “Aerosol forcing” that differ by a factor of 2.4.

“In summation, it has been known for decades that all the ‘indications’ of ECS generated by climate models are artefacts of assumed aerosol effects input to the models, i.e., GIGO.[Garbage In Garbage Out, Boldface in original]

As Courtney discusses, for decades global climate modelers, including the finest in the US, have manipulated data to achieve a predetermined high sensitivity of surface temperatures to changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (ECS). All the key components are in the atmosphere, CO2, aerosols, and the greenhouse effect. Yet the modelers ignore measurements of the atmosphere including temperature trends. Nature does not obey global climate models, so the politicized modelers ignore Nature and abandon the scientific method as well. See links under Model Issues:

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More Balancing Act: Adding to the balancing act, the Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) discusses a paper from Princeton University published in Geophysical Research Letters. This paper examined the latest models designed to be used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The abstract states:

“The most recent generation of climate models (the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) yields estimates of effective climate sensitivity (ECS) that are much higher than past generations due to a stronger amplification from cloud feedback. If plausible, these models require substantially larger greenhouse gas reductions to meet global warming targets. We show that models with a more positive cloud feedback also have a stronger cooling effect from aerosol‐cloud interactions. These two effects offset each other during the historical period when both aerosols and greenhouse gases increase, allowing either more positive or neutral cloud feedback models to reproduce the observed global‐mean temperature change. Since anthropogenic aerosols primarily concentrate in the Northern Hemisphere, strong aerosol‐cloud interaction models produce an interhemispheric asymmetric warming. We show that the observed warming asymmetry during the mid to late 20th century is more consistent with low ECS (weak aerosol indirect effect) models.’ [Boldface added]

As summarized by the GWPF:

“The authors’ most important scientific result is that the mild models seem better at reproducing the Earth’s recent temperature history. Most 20th century pollution was emitted in the north, so the balance between greenhouse gas warming and cloud-aerosol cooling has been different between the two hemispheres. This gives us an opportunity to assess whether the strong models are more realistic than the mild ones. That’s because the strong models give a much more pronounced difference between the hemispheres. Unfortunately for climate alarmists, Wang reckons that the observed difference is a much better match with the mild models. This means that predictions of a very hot future are much less plausible.

“Amusingly, Wang and his colleagues imply that there seems to be a surprising match between the amount of cooling and heating in the overall model cohort. Lots of models seem to get just the right amount of cooling to correctly offset their heating and so are able to reproduce 20th century temperature history. This strongly suggests that climate scientists are ‘tuning’ (more pejorative terms are frequently used) their models to make them look credible. That they do so is not a new revelation – papers have been written on the subject of tuning of climate models – but it does show us that scientists are still unable to create plausible simulations of the climate system ‘out of the box’.”

Others have described climate modelers tuning their models as adding fudge factors. From this exercise we see that global climate modelers will do whatever the IPCC demands of them, regardless whether that completely upends the scientific process. The public which will suffer the consequences of policies based on fudge factors is apparently of no importance to the modelers. See links under Model Issues.

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The Mann Balancing Act: Mr. Mann has decided to add to the CO2 – Aerosol balancing act by claiming that volcanoes near the Arctic have caused a cooling that is falsely associated as a cooling from changes in the multi-decadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO). There is no question that major volcanoes can cause significant changes to global temperatures, both in the atmosphere and on the surface, particularly if eruption columns reach the lower or middle stratosphere. The 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption, Philippines, is one example, releasing a significant amount of sulfuric acid forming sulfate aerosols. The lesser 1982 eruption of El Chichón, Mexico, is another example. There is some contention about whether the later eruption caused surface cooling, but it appears to have caused atmospheric cooling.

The press release of Mr. Mann’s latest stated:

“The researchers previously showed that the apparent AMO cycle in the modern era was an artifact of industrialization-driven climate change, specifically the competition between warming over the past century from carbon pollution and an offsetting cooling factor, industrial sulfur pollution, that was strongest from the 1950s through the passage of the Clean Air Acts in the 1970s and 1980s.”

As with his discredited “Hockey-stick” curves, Mr. Mann has long demonstrated an effort to eliminate natural variability.

As it happens, Judith Curry is writing a chapter about the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability along with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). She writes:

“The AMOC includes the northward flow of warm salty water in the upper Atlantic and the southward flow of the transformed cold fresh NADW in the deep Atlantic, which is a major driver of the substantial northward Atlantic heat transport across the equator.

“Basin‐scale multidecadal fluctuations have been observed in the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). The large‐scale multidecadal variability observed in the Atlantic has been referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal character of the AMO is distinguished from interannual ocean variability forced by the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability over the North Atlantic, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The term Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is often used, because the observed multidecadal fluctuations in the Atlantic may not be an oscillation at a single frequency but consist of a broader band of low‐frequency signals.”

After a long, informative post on the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, to include definitions, examples, discussions by others, and supporting documents, Curry concludes:

“What Mann is seeing in the climate model simulations is the shorter period tropical expression of the AMO that is limited to the North Atlantic – not the multi-decadal variability that is linked to the global oscillation.  This tropical expression may very well be forced to some extent by tropical volcanic eruptions but says little about global multi-decadal variability that is of greatest interest.

“The true multi-decadal climate variability is mostly internally generated, although solar variations can help set the tempo and major volcanic eruptions can mask the variations or help trigger a shift.

“Why does this matter?  The different phases of the AMO are linked to: the Atlantic hurricane activity, mass balance of Greenland and weather patterns influencing North America and Europe (notably droughts); this is not to mention global temperature change.

“From the Penn State press release, a primary motive for cancelling the AMO appears so that Mann can attribute the increase in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995 to AGW.  Cancelling the AMO isn’t going to help much here.  As discussed in my recent post on the AIR insurance sector report, the number of major hurricanes (Cat 3+) in the Atlantic during the 1950’s and 1960’s (previous warm phase of the AMO) was at least as large as for the last two decades, when SSTs were significantly cooler.

“A further key issue with the AMO is that all of the acceleration in sea level rise in recent decades is coming from Greenland melt, which is heavily influenced by the AMO.

“Assuming that nature continues to behave as it has for the past 8 millennia at some point (possibly in the next decade), we will see a shift to the cold phase of the AMO, with a slow down in Atlantic hurricane activity and Greenland mass loss.

“In closing, Mann’s quest to cancel the Medieval Warm Period and now the AMO, in the interests of showing that recent warming is 100% anthropogenic, is not at all convincing to scientists who understand anything about climate dynamics and global climate models.”

In short, Mr. Mann is grasping at a small part of a complex system and claiming it dominates the entire system. This is much like the majority of global climate modelers who claim carbon dioxide dominates the climate system, while it is a bit player.

Writing in the Global Warming Policy Forum, David Whitehouse gives a summary of what Curry wrote emphasizing that they use an ensemble of climate models to evaluate the causes of the AMO. However, global climate models have not been verified and validated with physical evidence and therefore  it is not appropriate to use them to evaluate the causes of physical events. Further, Whitehouse states:

“There is another way of looking a Mann’s findings. Roger Pielke Jnr remarked, ‘Maybe it’s just me, but it would seem that it should be much bigger news that 15,000+ peer-reviewed climate research papers published since 2000 are based on a non-existent phenomenon and are thus now discredited. “

Mann’s work was partially funded by the National Science Foundation and published by AAAS “Science” giving further evidence of their preference for modeling games over physical evidence. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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A Different AMO? Ironically, Kenneth Richard bring attention to a paper by researchers in China and at Colorado State stating that the AMO strongly influenced the climate in northeast China in the 18th and 20th century, particularly the Daxing’an Mountains and the Mongolian Plateau. The cold phases of the AMO increased moisture, and warm phases increased drought. See links under Changing Climate.

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120-Year-Old Error: In 1896, Svante Arrhenius published his calculations to estimate the extent to which increasing CO2 will increase the Earth’s surface temperatures thorough increasing the greenhouse effect. The calculations were based, in part, on an erroneous understanding of the experiments by John Tyndall, starting in 1859. Arrhenius claimed that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will cause significant global warming by trapping infrared radiation emitted by the earth which cools it. He assumed dangerous carbon dioxide-caused warming would take tens of thousands of years, following cycles of ice age cooling.

The calculations were criticized by Knut Ångström in 1900, who published the first modern infrared absorption spectrum of CO2 with two absorption bands (frequencies) and published experimental results that showed that absorption of infrared radiation by CO2 in the atmosphere was already “saturated” so that adding more CO2 made little difference in global temperatures.

There have been many refinements since 1900, to include the development of the of Atomic, Molecular and Optical physics (AMO) and the concept of radiative transfer. Despite decades of laboratory experiments and observations of infrared radiation by satellites contradicting the work of Arrhenius, the EPA accepted the obsolete concepts of Arrhenius as “established theory” in its finding that increasing CO2 endangers human health and welfare. It appears that the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will accept the EPA’s erroneous interpretation of the influence of CO2 on temperatures in the atmosphere despite decades of actual physical evidence contradicting it.

In a post on his blog, Tony Heller has several newspaper clippings tracing this preservation of error. About 1908 Arrhenius backed-off his earlier calculations but still did not understand the concept that the warming influence of CO2 is self-limiting (logarithmic), The EPA does not understand it either, or chooses to propagate any myth or error that will increase the alarmist’ message. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Number of the Week: – 5.28 billion tonnes (11,640 billion pounds). Among the many ideas proposed by those who wish to save the world from mythological “dangerous global warming” is the concept of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). According to “Our World in Data,” in 2019, the US emitted 5.28 billion tonnes (11,640 billion pounds) of carbon dioxide. No one has any idea of what it would take to capture, compress, and place into permanent storage this amount of carbon dioxide.

Similarly, no one has any idea of the costs involved in the UK government’s position of “net zero.” Apparently, nothing is meaningful for many politicians except being re-elected, regardless of any relation to actual, verifiable science. The costs of claims of imaginary powers are a problem for the future. Humanity needs protection from these myths. See links under Questioning European Green, Energy Issues – Non-US, Energy Issues — US

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Science: Is the Sun Rising?

Scientists Continue To Affirm Rising Incoming Solar Radiation Drives Recent Warming In Europe

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 11, 2021

Link to one paper: Trends in sunshine duration in Poland (1971–2018)

By Krzysztof Bartoszek  Dorota Matuszko  Stanisław Węglarczyk, International Journal of Climatology, Apr 19, 2020

https://ift.tt/2OP9wsW

Link to second paper: The influence of cloudiness and atmospheric circulation on radiation balance and its components

By Marek Kejna, Joanna Uscka-Kowalkowska & Paweł Kejna, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Mar 1, 2021

https://ift.tt/3eFLLyb

Censorship

The dangerous rise of climate censorship

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 8, 2021

Upper Class Copying Censorship tactics from China

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 10, 2021

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge:

https://ift.tt/1QdudpR

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

S. Fred Singer, Friend and Courageous Man of Science

By David J. Theroux, The Independent Institute, Mar 9, 2021

‘Climate has no internal variability,’ Mann & Co. claim

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Mar 11, 2021

Link to paper: Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing

By Michael E. Mann, Steinman, Brouillette and Miller, AAAS Science, Mar 5, 2021

https://ift.tt/2OTrzhA

Link to press release: Apparent Atlantic warming cycle likely an artifact of climate forcing

By A’ndrea Elyse Messer, Penn State News, March 04, 2021

https://ift.tt/3qp3E6Y

Canceling the AMO

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Mar 6, 2021

Enjoy: A Short History of Climate Alarm!

By Staff, GWPF, Mar 9, 2021

Link to paper: A Short History of Climate Alarm!

By Paul Homewood, GWPF, 2021

Milankovitch Forcing and Tree Ring Proxies

By Stephen McIntyre, Climate audit, Mar 2, 2021

Link to paper: Orbital forcing of tree-ring data

By Jan Esper. et al., Nature Climate Change, July 8, 2012

How Dare You!

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 12, 2021

https://ift.tt/38xnu9K

Is There a Climate Crisis? Answer – No!

Posted by Geoff Derrick, The Australian Climate Sceptics, March 13, 2021

http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2021/03/is-there-climate-crisis-answer-no.html

Presentation by Roy Spencer at The Irish Climate Science Forum

There is NO CLIMATE EMERGENCY (Part 2)

Geologist Geoff Derrick, The Australian Climate Sceptics, Mar 13, 2021

http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2021/03/there-is-no-climate-emergency-part-2.html

Defending the Orthodoxy

Kerry calls for ‘decade of action’ on climate change

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 9, 2021

https://ift.tt/3kYTx7w

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Northern Hemisphere summers may last nearly half the year by 2100

Press Release by American Geophysical Union, Mar 8, 2021

https://ift.tt/3quDVdh

Link to paper: Changing Lengths of the Four Seasons by Global Warming

By Jiamin Wang, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, Feb 19, 2021

https://ift.tt/3qOcPh6

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Atmospheric drying will lead to lower crop yields, shorter trees across the globe

Press Release by University of Minnesota, Mar 8, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://ift.tt/3bphqSH

Link to paper: Systemic effects of rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit on plant physiology and productivity

By José López, Danielle A. Way, and Walid Sadok, Global Change Biology, Mar 8, 2021

https://ift.tt/3tlgvZu

Denierland

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 9, 2021

“Denierland is the place where sceptics of climate catastrophe have been exiled.Sceptics refuse to bow to the consensus that the Wealthy West faces ‘Migration crises, civil wars, crop failures, famines, extreme weather, looting, wildfires and flooding if we don’t cut our emissions of carbon dioxide to the fabled ‘Net Zero.’”

Change in US Administrations

Could This Be The Very Worst Piece Of Legislation Ever?

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Mar 8, 2021

https://ift.tt/3tiUGd9

Roger Pielke, Jr. Debunks Biden Administration Social Cost of Carbon Estimates

By Marlo Lewis, Jr., CEI, Mar 5, 2021

https://ift.tt/2PZ7xTj

“If the world achieves net-zero by 2200, cumulative CO2 emissions will reach ~3,150 gigatons. Cumulative emissions in the IWG’s reference scenarios are 3.4 to 10.4 times larger.

“Pielke concludes: “If the world economy does not actually emit into the atmosphere tens of thousands of gigatons of carbon dioxide, as envisioned by the IWG, then the majority of the IWG SCC estimates are simply imaginary—setting aside all other methodological issues that might be raised.”

[SEPP Comment; IWG was the Obama administration’s Interagency Working Group.]

Nothing’s Off the Table: Gina McCarthy Has Big Plans for the Climate Fight

The former EPA head is now Biden’s domestic climate czar, on a mission to harness the federal government’s might to stop climate change

By Andy Kroll, Rolling Stone, Mar 12, 2021 [H/t Cooler Heads]

President Biden’s ‘America Last’ Energy Policies Enrich Enemies Abroad

By Catharine O’Neill, Newsmax, Mar 10, 2021

https://ift.tt/3to0dyX

Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

New NASA satellite data prove carbon dioxide is still GREENING the Earth

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 8, 2021

“Now up to date data from NASA confirms that these trends have continued, and that the planet is 10% greener than in 2000.

“In any sane world, this fact would be welcomed. It may be one of the reasons why the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation is forecasting a record world grain harvest this year.

“Instead we demonise carbon dioxide.”

Desertification cancelled: Climate Change won’t make the deserts grow

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 13, 2021

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Coal India approves 32 coal mining projects worth $6.4 billion

By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Mar 8, 2021

India Ignores John Kerry

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 10, 2021

Shock News–China 5-Year Plan Will Increase Emissions

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 6, 2021

Seeking a Common Ground

Mind over Math: Throwing Out the Numbers

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Feb 7 20201

Science, Policy, and Evidence

A Trillion Or Two? Don’t Worry Says Roger Harrabin

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 9, 2021

“The reality is that the cost of this policy is so high that nobody can possibly estimate it. But what we do know is that the country cannot afford it. Harrabin’s red herrings suggest he knows too.”

[SEPP Comment: Roger Harrabin is BBC’s Energy and Environment Analyst.]

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

Environmental Influences on Bird Body Size and Condition

Dubos, N., Le Viol, I., Robert, A., Teplitsky, C., Ghislain, M., Dehorter, O., Julliard, R. and Henry, P.Y. 2018. Disentangling the effects of spring anomalies in climate and net primary production on body size of temperate songbirds. Ecography 41: 1319-1330. Mar 12, 2021

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/mar/a6.php

“Monthly satellite records (NDVI, normalized difference vegetation index) served as a surrogate of primary production, which provides a representation of food availability.”

CO2-induced Reductions in Gypsy Moth Herbivory on European Oak

Milanovic, S., Milenkovic, I., Dobrosavljevic, J., Popovic, M., Solla, A., Tomsovsky, M. and Jankovsky, L. 2020. Growth rates of Lymantria dispar larvae and Quercus robur seedlings at elevated CO2 concentration and Phytophthora plurivora infection. Forests 11: 1059, doi:10.3390/f11101059. Mar 10, 2021

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/mar/a5.php

Using RNA Sequencing to Understand How Elevated CO2 Stimulates Growth in Strawberry

Li, X., Zhao, J., Shang, M., Song, H., Zhang, J., Xu, X., Zheng, S., Hou, L., Li, M. and Xing, G. 2020. Physiological and molecular basis of promoting leaf growth in strawberry (Fragaria ananassa Duch.) by CO2 enrichment. Biotechnology & Biotechnological Equipment 34: 905-917. Mar 8, 2021

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/mar/a4.php

Models v. Observations

But if CO2 drives temperature…

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 10, 2021

Model Issues

Dancing to the same tune

By Staff, GWPF, Mar 8, 2021

Link to paper: Compensation Between Cloud Feedback and Aerosol‐Cloud Interaction in CMIP6 Models

By Chenggong Wang, Brian J. Soden, Wenchang Yang and Gabriel A. Vecchi, Geophysical Research Letters, Jan 25, 2021

https://ift.tt/3leCZsu

Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity

By Jeffrey Kiehl, U of California, Santa Cruz, Geophysical Research Letters, November 2007

https://ift.tt/38ENnEW

Changing Weather

Coldest February since 1989 and fifth coldest since the Dust Bowl era, behind 1960, 1978, 1979, 1989

By Staff, ICECAP, Mar 9, 2021

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/this_february_to_the_20th_the_us_broke_9075_low_temperature_records_vs_982_/

So about that freezing

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 10, 2021

“U.S. Winter Outlook: Cooler North, Warmer South” (NOAA’s prediction bust)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Mar 11, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Nature does not obey global climate models, therefore nature is weird?]

Worse Than They Predicted

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 11, 2021

https://ift.tt/3euWpb2

Massive Fires: far worse 4,000 years ago in Northern Australia

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 6, 2021

A Rare Western Washington Thunderstorm that Pushed into the Stratosphere!

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 10, 2021

https://ift.tt/3qyhfbR

Changing Climate

Evidence Surfaces That Northeast China Was 2-3°C Warmer Than Today During The Mid-1800s

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 8, 2021

Link to one paper: Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on drought in northern Daxing’an Mountains, Northeast China

By Liangjun Zhu, CATENA, March 2021

https://ift.tt/30ITxzj

Changing Seas

Climate adaptation follies. Part II: scenarios of future sea level rise

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Mar 8, 2021

Relative to private sector practitioners, academic scientists have no ‘skin in the game’ – there are no adverse consequences for an overconfident forecast with a 5-30-year time horizon that turns out to be really wrong. Private sector practitioners in climate services have skin in the game in the sense that they will lose money or go out of business if their confident forecasts turn out to be  wrong.  While 80-year predictions are beyond the lifetime of the practitioners and most likely their companies also, the time period for many relevant decisions is the 5-30 year time frame.

So about that Miami

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 10, 2021

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Antarctic Peninsula warming up due to heat in Tasman Sea

Heating of the Tasman sea warms up the climate of Antarctic Peninsula via changes in wind patterns, new study by Japanese and Australian scientists shows

Press Release, Research Organization of Information and ystems, Mar 8, 2021

https://ift.tt/30ttLPA

Alfred Wegener Institute Sea Ice Extent: “Both Polar Regions At NORMAL LEVELS”…Siberia 6-8°C Colder

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 9, 2021

New study finds atmospheric rivers increase snow mass in West Antarctica

By Staff Writers, San Diego CA (SPX), Mar 08, 2021

https://ift.tt/30GTROT

Link to paper: Atmospheric River Precipitation Contributed to Rapid Increases in Surface Height of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in 2019

By Susheel Adusumilli, Meredith A. Fish, Helen Amanda Fricker, & Brooke Medley, Geophysical Research Letters, Feb 6, 2021

https://ift.tt/3eD9u22

NASA’s ICESat-2 satellite reveals shape, depth of Antarctic ice shelf fractures

By Staff Writers, University Park PA, (SPX) Mar 08, 2021

https://ift.tt/3rwwJPa

Link to paper: Characterization of ice shelf fracture features using ICESat-2 – A case study over the Amery Ice Shelf

By Shujie Wang, et al. Remote Sensing of Environment. Mar 15, 2021

https://ift.tt/3vqMObd

NASA Surface Station Data Show East Antarctica NOT WARMING Past 4 Decades…Cooling Trend

By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 7, 2021

Danish Institute Data: Greenland Ice Melt Has Slowed Down Significantly Over Past Decade

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 10, 2021

Will low sea ice threaten harp seals & polar bears on Canada’s East Coast this year?

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Mar 11, 2021

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

FAO forecasts record wheat production in 2021

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 6, 2021

Link to: FAO forecasts record wheat production in 2021

By Eric Schroeder, World-Grain.com, Mar 5, 2021

https://ift.tt/3cytEYA

“Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).”

Study shows cactus pear as drought-tolerant crop for sustainable fuel and food

By Staff Writers, Reno NV (SPX), Mar 08, 2021

https://ift.tt/3vr558A

Link to paper: Five‐year field trial of the biomass productivity and water input response of cactus pear (Opuntia spp.) as a bioenergy feedstock for arid lands

By Dhurba Neupane, GCB-Bioenergy, Jan 21, 2021

https://ift.tt/2Q3FYse

Un-Science or Non-Science?

Study: Global Warming is Raising the Tropical Wet Bulb Maximum Temperature

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 9, 2021

Lowering Standards

The Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) goes full AGU…

By David Middleton, WUWT, Mar 10, 2021

WSJ CO2 Battery Agenda

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 9, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Some reporters for the WSJ have difficulty separating reality from green visions and Leprechauns.]

February Weather Present & Past

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 7, 2021

“These four years from the Met Office archives show above all that there is no such thing as “normal weather”. Heavy rain, snow, gales, mild and cold weather all appear, often separated by only a few days.”

Record Breaking Rain Claims Don’t Stand Up To Scrutiny

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 12, 2021

[SEPP Comment: CO2 emissions are making rainfall more selective?]

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

Global heating pushes tropical regions towards limits of human livability

Rising heat and humidity threatening to plunge much of the world’s population into potentially lethal conditions, study finds

By Oliver Milman, The Guardian, Mar 8, 2021 [H/t Ken Jorgensen]

https://ift.tt/3rPoxcX

Link to paper: Projections of tropical heat stress constrained by atmospheric dynamics

By Yi Zhang, Isaac Held & Stephan Fueglistaler, Nature Geoscience, Mar 8, 2021

https://ift.tt/2OfW0yD

“The global number of potentially fatal humidity and heat events doubled between 1979 and 2017, research has determined, with the coming decades set to see as many as 3 billion people pushed beyond the historical range of temperature that humans have survived and prospered in over the past 6,000 years.” [Boldface added]

[SEPP Comment: It was hotter 8,000 years ago. Was humanity created in the past 6,000 years?]

Media Amplifies Forister’s Feeble Butterfly Science & Climate Fearmongering

By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Accessed Mar 12, 2021

http://landscapesandcycles.net/media-amplifies-forister-s-feeble-butterfly-scienc.html

“The media typically implied a climate connection to the 99% decline of Monarch butterflies, listed as Forister’s 37th most declining species. Yet the Monarch’s big killers are also land use change and herbicides, not climate change.”

Guardian’s Chinese Disinformation Campaign

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 11, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

The collapse of Northern California kelp forests will be hard to reverse

By Staff Writers, Santa Cruz CA (SPX), Mar 08, 2021

https://ift.tt/3vpBn3K

Link to paper: Large-scale shift in the structure of a kelp forest ecosystem co-occurs with an epizootic and marine heatwave

By Meredith L. McPherson, Nature Communications, Mar 5, 2021

https://ift.tt/38EmmBn

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Six Month Summer? No, Just More Junk Science

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 11, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?

Major Survey Shocks: German Youth Rejecting Need For Radical Behavior Change To Fight ‘Climate Crisis’

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 12, 2021

“The European Investment Bank survey sampled 30,000 people in 30 countries in the fall of 2020.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda

Greta Thunberg says Biden’s climate policies don’t go far enough

By Carly Roman, Associate News Editor, Washington Examiner, mar 7, 2021

https://ift.tt/3li0scn

Expanding the Orthodoxy

DOD establishes climate change working group

By Tony Bertuca, Inside Defense, Mar 12, 2021 [H/t William Readdy]

https://ift.tt/3qOVjtp

Link to Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense to Senior Pentagon Leadership, Commanders of Combatant Commands, and DOD Mar 9, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Is Biden’s Climate Force the next branch of the armed forces?]

EU bullies demand control of Australian electricity in order to do trade deals

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 11, 2021

Questioning European Green

Sleepwalking to Green Austerity

By Iain Aitken, WUWT, Mar 8, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Intentions are meaningless when the outcome is economically destructive.]

How many km2 of solar panels in Spain and how much battery backup would it take to power Germany

By Dr. Lars Schernikau and Prof. William H. Smith, Via WUWT, Mar 7, 2021

Link to paper: How Many km2 of Solar Panels in Spain and how much battery backup would it take to power Germany

By Lars Schernikau and William hayden Smith, SSRN Electronic Journal, February 2021

https://ift.tt/3qpR5Iz

Come clean about the cost of Net Zero

By Pen Pile, Spiked, Mar 10, 2021

https://ift.tt/3cjnqvh

Questioning Green Elsewhere

You’re going to pay a lot for that fuel

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 10, 2021

“If alternatives worked reliably and efficiently, we wouldn’t need those carbon taxes to switch.”

Adaptation, not mitigation, should inform India’s climate strategy

At the climate change negotiation table, India needs to safeguard its interests and enhance its development prospects.

By Shyam Saran, Indian Express, Mar 6, 2021

https://ift.tt/2OmRHRM

Non-Green Jobs

Rising energy prices are killing British industry: UK steel collapse ‘inevitable’ due to Net Zero

Press Release, Global Warming Policy Forum, Mar 10, 2021

Funding Issues

Brazil Demands US “Investment” to Support the Biden Climate Agenda

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 8, 2021

The Political Games Continue

House Democrats’ opening statement on climate

By Ben German, Axios, Mar 3, 2021

https://ift.tt/38CFlwg

Link to: Summary of the Climate Leadership and Environmental Action for our Nation’s (CLEAN) Future Act

By Staff, Committee on Energy & Commerce, March 2021

“Sec. 202. ZERO-EMISSION ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT.

Requires retail electricity suppliers provide an increasing percentage of clean electricity each year starting in 2023, rising to 80 percent in 2030 and 100 percent in 2035.”

Scientists Vs. Skeptics

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 12, 2021

https://ift.tt/3lh0l0v

Lawmakers aim to incentivize weatherizing power lines

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Mar 11, 2021

https://ift.tt/3erw91m

“Especially as summer droughts and intense winter storms become more common, now is the time to invest in our power grids and reduce the chance of outages or sparks,” he added. [Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley.

[SEPP Comment: Carbon dioxide caused global warming will make winter storms more common?]

Litigation Issues

Twelve States Challenge Legality and Constitutionality of Biden Administration’s Use of Social Cost of Carbon

By Marlo Lewis Jr. CEI, Mar 12, 2021

https://ift.tt/3thJBZO

[SEPP Comment: To establish regulations based on cost to the public requires the administrations understands what it is regulating and is able to evaluate the value of curtailing benefits. Doubtful if the administration considers either important]

Hearing Puts Spotlight on Mass AG’s Politically Motivated Climate Lawsuit

By William Allison, Energy In Depth, Mar 9, 2021

Winning: First Energy and Steve Milloy agree to climate disclosures

By Steve Milloy, Junk Science, Mar 11, 2021

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

BBC: Switching Consumers to Green Energy Tariffs Without Asking Permission Increases Acceptance

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 11, 2021

The carbon tax shell game

By Duggan Flanakin, CFACT, Mar 11, 2021

https://ift.tt/3li0xgb

EPA and other Regulators on the March

Former EPA head says agency must ‘re-establish a commitment to sound science’

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 10, 2021

https://ift.tt/38JU9JB

[SEPP Comment: From EPA administrators who ignored physical evidence.]

Energy Issues – Non-US

The hidden cost of Net Zero

By Andrew Montford, The Spectator, Mar 8, 2021

https://ift.tt/3qRWesN

“Do politicians have any idea of where they are taking us? Or does their thinking on energy policy only extend to posturing and pandering to environmental pressure groups?”

Cumbria mining debacle just a foretaste of Net Zero crisis, GWPF warns

Press Release, Global Warming Policy Forum, Mar 12, 2021

“’MPs would be well advised to realise that the clash between economic recovery, levelling up and the Net Zero agenda is inevitable and unavoidable. Unless policy makers begin to acknowledge the self-destructive and largely futile effects of Britain’s unilateral climate policies they are asking for serious economic and social trouble,” Peiser warned.”

Energy Issues — US

“The Cheaper the Energy the Better” (Julian Simon in 1993 speaks to us today)

By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Mar 10, 2021

[SEPP Comment: The essay was written before hydraulic fracturing combined with modern drilling made biofuels, solar, and wind power economically obsolete.]

A Closer Look at What Happened in Texas During the Deep Freeze:

By Chris Martz, Weather and Climate, Mar 9, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

Five Myths of the Texas Power Crisis

By Tony Clark, Real Clear Energy, Mar 5, 2021

https://ift.tt/3qGXDm8

Texas blackouts warning to Biden and all of us: Renewables do play a role in grid problems

Common-sense has already lost to political considerations — and people across Texas and the Great Plains are paying the price.

By Jason Hayes, USA Today, Feb 22, 2021 [H/t ICECAP]

https://ift.tt/3thC9xS

Biden federal leasing pause won’t impact energy production this year, agency says

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Mar 11, 2021

https://ift.tt/2OK8heu

Link to: Short-Term Energy Outlook

By Staff, EIA, March 2021

“EIA forecasts that electricity consumption in the United States will increase by 2.1% in 2021 after it fell 3.8% in 2020.”

[SEPP Comment: What about four years from now?]

Climate change will have ‘far-reaching’ impacts on electric grid, watchdog says

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Mar 10, 2021

https://ift.tt/3rEvo94

Link to report: Electricity Grid Resilience: Climate Change Is Expected to Have Far-reaching Effects and DOE and FERC Should Take Actions

By Staff, GAO, March 2021

[SEPP Comment: Bureaucratic babble.]

United States: CO2 Country Profile

By Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, Our World in Data, Accessed Mar 12, 2021

https://ift.tt/37kFxzm

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Peak Demand? The Latest Oil Mirage (new Lynch/Sandrea study)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Mar 9, 2021

Return of King Coal?

Russian coal set to replace Australian exports to China

By Staff, The Australian, Via GWPF, Mar 7, 2021

Nuclear Energy and Fears

German green energy compares poorly to French nukes

By Wallace Manheimer, BPR Business & Politics, Mar 12, 2021

https://ift.tt/38EafEv

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Wind and solar reliance would black out the US

If Biden goes to undependable renewables without nuclear, expect exploding power costs, rationing and blackouts

By Jonathan Tennenbaum, Asia Times, Mar 8, 2021

“Meanwhile, some climate activists such David McDermott Hughes have come up with a much cheaper and quicker solution: Abandon the traditional goal of providing a reliable energy supply to meet the demands of society. Instead, require the population to adapt its consumption to the available supply.

Under this prescription the US population should simply come to accept rationing and power interruptions, of the sort that are unfortunately still common in underdeveloped countries. That would be the necessary price for averting the climate apocalypse.

Caution: read this before the lights go out.”

Wind Power Failed Again Last Week

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 8, 2021

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

EV Subsidies, Fantasies and Realities

By Paul Driessen, Somewhat Reasonable, Mar 8, 2021

New US vehicles must be electric by 2030 to meet climate goals – report

Joe Biden needs ‘visionary target’ of cutting US emissions by 60% over 2005 levels

By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, Mar 11, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://ift.tt/3etgpen

Link to report: To show climate leadership, US 2030 target should be at least 57-63%

By Staff, Climate Action Tracker, March 2021

Carbon Schemes

Cheaper carbon capture is on the way

PNNL-developed solvent breaks barriers, captures carbon for less than industrial counterparts

News Release, DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Mar 11, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

https://ift.tt/3vfe3W9

Energy Department announces $76 million toward carbon capture, industrial assessment centers

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 8, 2021

https://ift.tt/2PCINA8

Oh Mann!

Michael Mann Urges OECD to Reject “Climate Inactivist” Mathias Cormann’s Leadership Bid

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 8, 2021

Environmental Industry

Jeff Bezos names Andrew Steer to lead $10B Earth Fund

By Sommer Brokaw, Washington DC (UPI), Mar 10, 2021

https://ift.tt/3vpLDZW

“Jeff Bezos on Tuesday named World Resources Institute CEO Andrew Steer to lead his $10 billion Earth Fund.”

Other News that May Be of Interest

The Revolutionary Weather Observers

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 7, 2021

https://ift.tt/3rsglPo

Texas’ Winter Electrical Grid Failures Highlight Nation’s Vulnerability to EMP Attacks

By Peter Brookes and Ryan Williams, The Daily Signal, Mar 9, 2021

https://www.dailysignal.com/2021/03/09/texass-winter-electrical-grid-failures-highlight-the-nations-vulnerability-to-emp-attacks/?utm_source=TDS_Email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MorningBell&utm_content=httpswwwdailysignalcom20210309texasswinterelectricalgridfailureshighlightthenationsvulnerabilitytoempattacksutmsourcerssutmmediumrssutmcampaigntexasswinterelectricalgridfailureshighlightthenationsvulnerabilitytoempattacks&mkt_tok=ODI0LU1IVC0zMDQAAAF7uq3KrhV81YpnyCAr_JZKhN2WTgKY-fh2stNeZ52lDqvMURdKvmPU0zq9yHUVQk2FzpCRhq7UdHQTwVpl2972SPzHB0bDHbumLIGFg5EahpOdfw

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

Insatiable demand for cannabis has created a giant carbon footprint

Press Release by Colorado State University, Mar 8, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

https://ift.tt/2MYfNSD

Link to paper: The greenhouse gas emissions of indoor cannabis production in the United States

By Hailey M. Summers, Evan Sproul & Jason C. Quinn, Nature Sustainability, Mar 8, 2021

https://ift.tt/3uZMUXn

Knebworth Damaged by “Climate Change”

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 11, 2021

“No doubt, Knebworth thought they had a better chance of getting a grant from Historic England if they blamed it on global warming. But the problems there are a consequence of decades of poor maintenance, not the climate bogeyman.” The building is 500 years old.

New York Times: Most East Coast Beaches Gone By 2020

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 11, 2021

https://ift.tt/3tah6gM

White Pine Renewables completes largest floating solar farm in the US

By Staff Writers, Healdsburg CA (SPX), Mar 08, 2021

https://ift.tt/30lPpFo

ARTICLES

Biden Team Races to Assemble New Climate-Change Strategy

The administration is enlisting agencies across the government as it aims to unveil in April a revised target for U.S. emissions reductions

By Andrew Restuccia and Timothy Puko, WSJ, Mar 8, 2021

https://ift.tt/3qzKPxC

TWTW Summary: The reporters begin with:

“The Biden administration is racing to complete a wide-ranging climate-change strategy next month, enlisting agencies across the government to craft a plan that could reshape the U.S. economy and disrupt major industries.

“President Biden and his senior aides are exploring pairing executive actions—like tighter pollution standards, targeted investments and changes in federal procurement—with congressional action to speed a shift toward low-carbon energy. The effort could rock fossil-fuel companies and boost renewable energy businesses, while for the first time putting extensive government requirements on the financial sector regarding climate policy.

“Administration officials are casting their strategy as a central component of their plan to revive the economy amid the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. [Boldface added]

“‘The things that we can do today to address climate are really plentiful, and will allow us to actually bounce back from Covid,’ Gina McCarthy, the White House national climate adviser, said in an interview. ‘If the entire government works together, we can do things that won’t ask for sacrifice.’

“Business groups, even those that have warmed to government action on climate change, are concerned about a potentially heavy-handed reach into the economy. Many—like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Petroleum Institute—support legislation to penalize carbon emissions across the economy, for instance, but balk at sector-targeted administrative actions.”

The article goes into great speculation on the US cutting CO2 emissions without any realistic estimates of the costs involved.

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March 15, 2021 at 04:30AM

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