Fifty years of failed renewables predictions

Fifty years of failed renewables predictions

For five decades, experts have been predicting renewable energy would supply 20 – 50% of the US Electricity Grid. Instead it’s taken twice as long to get to one fifth of the original prediction. (And to get to a pitiful 10%, that includes Hydropower).

The seductive temptation of “free energy” rolls on, never mind about the masses of infrastructure and land it takes to capture a low density energy source, with free fuel, but expensive maintenance, costly transmission, extra stability charges, and eye-bleeding storage costs.

Failed renewables predictions

For fifty years people have been overestimating the renewables transition.

The graphs comes from the JPMorgan, Energy Review. A search online did not find a copy anywhere of Bent Sorensen’s original 1970-ish prediction, but it did find about 500 articles and nine of his books.  Showing that if at first you don’t succeed, you can make a career out of it.

Joe Biden is also marching down Failure Boulevard:

Carbon reduction in the USA. Biden plans.

What are the odds?

Globally we used to get 95% of all our energy from fossil fuels. After half a century and a trillion dollars, now that’s plummeted all the way down to … 85%:

How is the global energy transition going? Taken together, the aggregate impact of nuclear, hydroelectric and
solar/wind generation reduced global reliance on fossil fuels from ~95% of primary energy in 1975 to ~85% in
2020. In other words, energy transitions take a long time and lots of money. The IEA expects fossil fuel reliance
to decline at a more rapid pace now, fueled in part by “Big Oil” companies becoming “Big Energy” companies
and by a faster global EV transition

Can any readers can find the original quotes listed in the graph above?

REFERENCES

-Michael Cembalest, JPMorgan, 2021 Energy Review

h/t  Thanks to Rafe Champion at Catalaxy and Old Ozzie.

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May 7, 2021 at 02:24PM

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