There are two notions of ECS. The first is without feedbacks (mainly water vapor and clouds). It estimates a simple non-condensing gas CO2 doubling. AR4 implicitly had that at a 1.1C. Lindzen’s 2012 curve reproduced below used ~1.2C. Using Monckton’s equation and his parameters yields 1.16C, so one can legitimately argue Lindzen’s following curve merely rounds up given uncertainty.
via Watts Up With That?
May 30, 2021 at 08:25PM