The New Pause that goes on giving

Viscount Monckton of Brenchley

The New Pause has lengthened by a further month, from 6 years 8 months to 6 years 9 months. As usual, it is calculated as the longest period, up to the most recent month for which data are available, during which the trend on the UAH global mean lower-troposphere temperature dataset is zero.

If anyone has seen a mention of this emerging and now quite long Pause in any mainstream news medium, let me know in comments. Here in the UK, the unspeakable BBC has kept the fact secret from its rapidly-dwindling audiences, preferring instead to broadcast a hysterical piece saying that the frequency of local temperature measurements worldwide exceeding 50 C° has risen in recent decades. Of course, the leftist numbskulls at the BBC took no steps to verify the extent to which the measurements had become more frequent because in hot countries more temperature stations are in operation, and still fewer steps to deWattsify the temperature record by excluding stations inappropriately sited or inadequately shaded. Besides, in a generally warming world one would expect new high-temperature records.

HadCRUT4 has at last updated its surface-temperature record to August 2021, showing no global warming for 7 years 6 months. For almost all the period between IPCC’s 2013 and 2021 Assessment Reports, there has been no global warming at all.

My noble friend Simon Clanmorris has kindly sent me a revealing analysis of the discrepancies between the HadCRUT3, -4 and -5 datasets. It shows that almost 20% of the warming imagined in the HadCRUT5 dataset arises from ex-post-facto adjustments (whether justified or not) to the previously-estimated temperature record.

Why does these long Pauses matter? It is not just that they cause entertaining conniptions among the ungodly (just watch the pompous, pietistic whining by the lavishly-paid trolls who seek to disrupt these threads day after day, convincing none but themselves).

What a long Pause shows – and the New Pause is now a long Pause – is not that there has not been warming in the past, nor that there will be no warming in future, but that for whatever reasons the Earth is at present likely to be in approximate radiative balance with its surroundings, notwithstanding an undiminished and continuing linear uptrend in anthropogenic radiative forcing.

IPCC (2021) imagines that there is an Earth energy imbalance of 0.8 Watts per square meter. But the long Pause indicates that the imbalance (which is extremely difficult to measure directly, and is subject to very wide error margins) is not significantly different from zero.

In short, our activities may be exerting a far smaller influence on the weather than the profiteers of doom would wish us to imagine. Cue trolls.

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October 2, 2021 at 04:39AM

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