An obvious problem with the new Environment Agency report reportis its use of climate scenario RCP8.5, which has been widely discredited as unrealistic, impossible and so on. Surely that ought to render any related comments unsuitable as advice to a government. EA report extracts follow.
Air temperature and precipitation: We used RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to represent climate scenarios that meet or exceed global warming +2°C and +4°C above pre-industrial by 2100.
Sea level rise: For our FCERM schemes we assess a range from the 70th to the 95th percentile of UKCP18 RCP8.5.
River flows: They are relative to a 1981-200 baseline and based on the 50th percentile of UKCP18 RCP8.5, which is consistent with at least a +4°C warming scenario by the end of the century.
Future weather: The projected values for future hot weather and wet weather are taken from UKCP Local (2.2 km) (Met Office, 2019), which complements the UKCP18 projections with data at a higher spatial and temporal resolution than previous climate projections, giving us greater detail on the 52 of 90 frequency and intensity of extreme weather. These projections are only available for a RCP8.5
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The Environment Agency has issued a stark warning on climate change: “Adapt or die”, says ITV News.
In a new report the Government body has preparations need to be made for the inevitable effects of climate change such as more flooding, an increased number of droughts and rising sea levels.
It has said that becoming resilient to these already inevitable effects – is just as important as actions to cut greenhouse gases and has called for investment now to adapt instead of dealing with the after-effects of not taking action.
The agency’s chairwoman Emma Howard Boyd, warned that deadly events such as the flooding in Germany this summer would hit here if the country did not make itself resilient to the more violent weather the climate emergency was bringing.
This call comes less than three weeks before the COP26 summit in Glasgow and on the day that the organisation’s chief executive – Sir James Bevan – visits Carlisle to visit the city’s flood defences, which the agency has said provide 1,300 properties with extra protection.
In a report to the Government, the EA said climate change would exacerbate the pressure on England’s water environment, which is suffering from problems such as pollution and increased water demand, and make it harder to ensure clean and plentiful water.
The agency alone cannot protect everyone from increasing flood and coastal risks, and traditional flood defences will not be able to prevent all flooding and coastal erosion, the report said.
There will be more and worse environmental incidents, such as flooding, water shortages and pollution, regulation is not ready for climate change and the natural world cannot adapt as fast as the climate is changing, the EA said.
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
October 14, 2021 at 08:21AM