It’s weather wars as the Met Office forecasts mild winter while the BBC predicts a big freeze

Place bets now! Of course there could well be bits of both. The Met Office says its offering is ‘consistent with a warming climate’, but there was a very cold winter spell only 11 years ago, around the time of the last solar minimum.
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Most know from bitter experience that meteorology is far from an exact science, but Britain’s two leading weather forecasting services have given completely contradictory predictions on what we can expect this winter, reports the Daily Mail.

The Government-run Met Office has forecast a mild winter, but the BBC’s service predicts it is likely to be cold and harsh.

Experts last night described the opposing long-range forecasts as unparalleled and they risk causing havoc for businesses such as energy suppliers, transport firms, supermarkets and airlines which rely on forecasts to plan ahead.

The Met Office’s three-month outlook from November to the end of January says: ‘A mild three-month period is more likely than a cold one. Consistent with a warming climate, there is a reduction in the chance of cold.’ Its computer forecast model shows a 60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average temperatures across December to February.

But rival forecaster DTN, formerly known as MeteoGroup, predicts the UK is in line for a ‘cold, dry and calm winter’.

The firm, which won the BBC’s multi-million-pound weather contract from the Met Office three years ago, said: ‘This winter is likely to feature a weak polar vortex, bringing increased cold risks from Arctic air masses later in the season. January and February could feature frigid air, similar to last year.’

Continued here.

via Tallbloke’s Talkshop

November 21, 2021 at 03:30AM

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