Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet volume lag climate changes, such that today’s climate could still be affecting its size in thousands of years’ time


Peer-Reviewed Publication

PLOS

Fig 1. The model domain of the ice sheet model.
IMAGE: THE LEFT SUBPANEL SHOWS THE ICE THICKNESS USED TO INITIALIZE THE MODEL (SHADING) AND THE CONTEMPORARY COAST LINE (BLACK CONTOUR LINE) WHILE THE RIGHT SUBPANEL DEPICTS THE CORRESPONDING BEDROCK TOPOGRAPHY. THESE DATA ARE DERIVED FROM THE ETOPO1 DATA SET [42]. view more C REDIT: YANG ET AL., 2022, PLOS ONE, CC-BY 4.0 (https://ift.tt/35WoWBi)

Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet volume lag climate changes, such that today’s climate could still be affecting its size in thousands of years’ time

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Article URL:  https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0259816   

Article Title: Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Author Countries: Germany, China, The Netherlands

Funding: This work was supported through a grant (Global sea level change since the Mid Holocene: Background trends and climate-ice sheet feedbacks) from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) as part of the Special Priority Program (SPP)-1889 ‘Regional Sea Level Change and Society’ (SeaLevel). C. Rodehacke has been financed through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung: BMBF) project ZUWEISS (grant agreement 01LS1612A) and through the National Centre for Climate Research (NCFK, Nationalt Center for Klimaforskning) provided by the Danish State. H.Y., S.X. and X.L are partly funded by the open fund of State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, CAS (SKLLQG1920). Development of PISM is supported by NASA grant NNX17AG65G and NSF grants PLR-1603799 and PLR-1644277.


DOI

10.1371/journal.pone.0259816 

ARTICLE TITLE

Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

19-Jan-2022

COI STATEMENT

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Here is the abstract of the paper not paywalled:

Using transient climate forcing based on simulations from the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), we simulate the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last interglacial (125 ka, kiloyear before present) to 2100 AD with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The impact of paleoclimate, especially Holocene climate, on the present and future evolution of the GrIS is explored. Our simulations of the past show close agreement with reconstructions with respect to the recent timing of the peaks in ice volume and the climate of Greenland. The maximum and minimum ice volume at around 18–17 ka and 6–5 ka lag the respective extremes in climate by several thousand years, implying that the ice volume response of the GrIS strongly lags climatic changes. Given that Greenland’s climate was getting colder from the Holocene Thermal Maximum (i.e., 8 ka) to the Pre-Industrial era, our simulation implies that the GrIS experienced growth from the mid-Holocene to the industrial era. Due to this background trend, the GrIS still gains mass until the second half of the 20th century, even though anthropogenic warming begins around 1850 AD. This is also in agreement with observational evidence showing mass loss of the GrIS does not begin earlier than the late 20th century. Our results highlight that the present evolution of the GrIS is not only controlled by the recent climate changes, but is also affected by paleoclimate, especially the relatively warm Holocene climate. We propose that the GrIS was not in equilibrium throughout the entire Holocene and that the slow response to Holocene climate needs to be represented in ice sheet simulations in order to predict ice mass loss, and therefore sea level rise, accurately.

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January 20, 2022 at 08:03PM

One thought on “Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet volume lag climate changes, such that today’s climate could still be affecting its size in thousands of years’ time”

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