Month: January 2022

Where One Error Ends and the Next Begins

I think it is fair to say that I wouldn’t be the first to observe that the behaviour of identical twins can often be strangely synchronous. Usually, this mutual mimicry extends to little more than having the same taste in woolly jumpers or sharing career interests – even, perhaps, a shared taste when it comes to choosing sexual partners. However, in the case of the Bogdanoff twins, the self-similarities found new horizons when they contrived to die of the same cause within six days of each other. Tragically, neither twin thought it necessary to vaccinate against Covid-19, and neither twin proved to be beyond the virus’s deadly clutches. Remarkably, however, this example of faithfully coordinated overconfidence is probably the least bizarre aspect of their shared lives. In fact, there is absolutely nothing about the lives of the Bogdanoff twins that comes anywhere near falling within the bounds of the normal.

The Notoriety Gene

It could be argued that, for Igor and Grichka Bogdanoff, Bohemian notoriety was quite literally programmed into their DNA. Born to Maria Dolores Franzyska Kolowrat-Krakowská and the painter, Yuri Mikhaïlovitch Osten-Sacken Bogdanoff, they were actually brought up by their maternal grandmother, Bertha. Bertha was of the noble Kolowrat family of Bohemia and was married to a member of the Austrian princely house of Colloredo-Mannsfeld; however, she fell from grace after becoming pregnant to the African American tenor Roland Hayes. As a result of this scandal she was forced to forfeit access to her four elder children and all of her palatial homes. Even so, it was she rather than her illegitimate daughter who would go on to bring up Igor and Grichka.

Despite or because of this unconventional background, the Bogdanoff twins went on to find fame within France as dual hosts of a number of TV programmes that provided a heady cocktail of science and science fiction.1 Nevertheless, fame and fortune proved insufficient to satisfy the genetic birthright of the Bogdanoff twins – to live up to Bertha’s legacy they needed to spice up their lives with a little notoriety. Whether by design or accident, they achieved this, courtesy of the so-called Bogdanoff Affair.

A Case of the Reverse Sokal

It all started when the Bogdanoff twins sought to bolster their credibility by gaining suitably impressive academic qualifications. To that end, Grichka gained a PhD in mathematics from the University of Burgundy and, not to be outdone, Igor obtained a PhD in theoretical physics from, naturally enough, the same place. To cement their academic careers the twins published a series of five papers in peer-reviewed journals.2 And that is where the controversy started.

In October 2002, an email was sent by University of Tours physicist Max Niedermaier to University of Pittsburgh physicist Ezra T. Newman, pointing out that the papers appeared to comprise nothing more than “delightfully meaningless combinations of buzzwords taken from string theory”. The concern was that the papers had been written as a hoax, along the lines of Alan Sokal’s infamous effort that had fooled supposedly respectable journals specialising in cultural studies.3 It would appear that deficiencies in the peer review process were just as much a problem in mathematics and physics as they were in the ‘softer’ scientific subjects.

Discussion of the papers rapidly became a big deal on the internet, with some individuals defending the papers whilst others were not only derisive of the twins’ efforts but also of the system that granted them their PhDs and published their papers. The twins denied that they had set out to hoax anyone, leading some to dub their efforts a ‘Reverse Sokal’, meaning that no hoax may have been intended but the peer review system had shot itself in the foot nevertheless.

The controversy continues to this day, although the best informed views do tend to be on the side that dismisses the papers as meaningless gobbledygook. For example, luminaries such as physicists David Gross, Carlo Rovelli, and Lee Smolin have all declared the Bogdanoff papers to be nonsensical. Indeed, in 2010 an official report from the Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), concluded that the papers “cannot in any way be considered a scientific contribution“, before adding that, “These theses have no scientific value…Rarely have we seen a hollow work dressed with such sophistication.” 

Rather than placing themselves at the heart of scientific respectability, all the Bogdanoff twins had succeeded in doing was to demonstrate that, at heart, even the most prestigious of scientific subjects can be tainted by poor quality work that is getting through peer review. And yet all of this could have been avoided if journal editors had heeded the opinions of one particular peer reviewer:4

“It would take up too much space to enumerate all the mistakes: indeed it is difficult to say where one error ends and the next begins.”

But the Bogdanoff twins were not finished yet. There was still scope for them to dig themselves a bigger hole.

The phoney professors

In response to what the Bogdanoff twins saw as defamation of character, there followed a series of court cases with varying results. When they could be bothered to turn up in court, they enjoyed some success, albeit much to the chagrin of a scientific community that couldn’t see how the law can arbitrate on matters of scientific merit. However, the legal avenue did little to restore the academic reputation of the Bogdanoff twins, and so they resorted to a different approach. Perhaps their critics could be cowered into silence if Igor and Grichka were to become fully tenured professors.

One morning in 2005 the world woke up to discover that the twins had been appointed professors of cosmology at the Megatrend University, Serbia.5 As such they were in charge of the Megatrend Laboratory of Cosmology, which sounds very prestigious until one realises that no such laboratory exists. But what can one expect when someone is taken on by a university run by a rector that was ultimately forced to resign for having claimed he had an economics PhD from the London School of Economics when that institution had never even heard of him? The fact is that Megatrend University was a diploma mill that would give anyone a degree or a staff position if they paid enough money. Suffice it to say, the arrangement with the Bogdanoff twins was mutually beneficial – the twins got some academic kudos whilst the university obtained a couple of high profile staff members who didn’t even need to be paid a salary.

A new image

By now the twins had established such a reputation for eccentricity, and had courted so much controversy, that changing their physical appearance to look like aliens seemed a natural thing to do. And so they both pursued a course of plastic surgery that raised their cheekbones and extended their chins to extremes that could only be described as alarming. Of course, true to character, they categorically denied that any plastic surgery was involved, and referred instead to mysterious ‘high level technologies’ that they were pioneering. No doubt the additional notoriety suited the twins down to the ground as they continued their high profile lifestyles, causing a ‘stir around the world’ whenever they turned up to a prestigious event. In some ways, therefore, professing to possess a superhuman immune system that was impervious to Covid-19 was all part of the game – in life, as in their academic work, it was difficult to see where one error ended and another one began.

The Bogdanoff Legacy

The Bogdanoff twins did not just encourage conspiracy theories, their whole lives were based upon the theme of conspiracy and the blurring of the line between science and fiction. In their terms, they were hugely successful and even managed to die in splendid thematic synchrony. But what can we say regarding their true legacy? Such was their fame and notoriety that the internet is now awash with memes (some of which were started by the twins themselves) that attest to a superhuman existence.6 Indeed, when reading them, one is reminded of the introductions that the Stig enjoyed on Top Gear:

  • Some say that nation states entrusted their gold reserves with the twins and that they learned to speak fluent french in under a week.
  • Some say that they owned 99% of DNA editing research facilities in the world and even the Rothschilds would bow down before them.
  • Some say that they invented cryptocurrency and they were in regular contact with the archangels Michael and Gabriel.
  • And some say that they owned Nanobot research labs around the world and that you are likely already to have Bogdabots inside your body.

All we know is that they were called the Bogdanoff twins7 – RIP.

Notes:

[1] Of particular note were the ten years they spent hosting the science fiction programme Temps X.

[2] In Igor’s case, having three papers published was also a condition of him obtaining his PhD.

[3] Alan Sokal is probably best known for his hoax since it remains a favourite scandal amongst those who are keen to point out how little value can really be placed in the fact that a paper has been peer reviewed. The Bogdanoff Affair serves a similar purpose.

[4] This was Eli Hawkins, acting as a referee on behalf of the Journal of Physics A.

[5] Megatrend University is the fourth largest university in Serbia. Founded in 1989, it currently boasts over 3,500 students.

[6] Bogdanoff memes are not intended to be taken seriously. A good list can be found here.

[7] We don’t even know that. Some say they should be referred to as the Bogdanov twins.

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January 12, 2022 at 09:42AM

Successful Chinese Coup

Those Who Pushed Lockdowns Can’t Hide From The Consequences Now

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January 12, 2022 at 09:29AM

CNN Coming After Your Home

They want to force everyone into electrical heating and transportation, as they shut down the supply of electricity and make it unaffordable. Opinion: The next front in fighting climate change: your home – CNN Global Energy Crisis Threatens to Hit … Continue reading

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January 12, 2022 at 09:21AM

UAH Confirms Global Warming Gone End of 2021

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The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean.  But as an overview consider how recent rapid cooling has now completely overcome the warming from the last 3 El Ninos (1998, 2010 and 2016).  The UAH record shows that the effects of the last one were gone as of April and then again in November, 2021 (UAH baseline is now 1991-2020).

For reference I added an overlay of CO2 annual concentrations as measured at Moana Loa.  While temperatures fluctuated up and down ending flat, CO2 went up steadily by ~55 ppm, a 15% increase.

Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.

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The animation is an update of a previous analysis from Dr. Murry Salby.  These graphs use Hadcrut4 and include the 2016 El Nino warming event.  The exhibit shows since 1947 GMT warmed by 0.8 C, from 13.9 to 14.7, as estimated by Hadcrut4.  This resulted from three natural warming events involving ocean cycles. The most recent rise 2013-16 lifted temperatures by 0.2C.  Previously the 1997-98 El Nino produced a plateau increase of 0.4C.  Before that, a rise from 1977-81 added 0.2C to start the warming since 1947.

Importantly, the theory of human-caused global warming asserts that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere changes the baseline and causes systemic warming in our climate.  On the contrary, all of the warming since 1947 was episodic, coming from three brief events associated with oceanic cycles. 

Update August 3, 2021

Chris Schoeneveld has produced a similar graph to the animation above, with a temperature series combining HadCRUT4 and UAH6. H/T WUWT

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See Also Worst Threat: Greenhouse Gas or Quiet Sun?

November Update Ocean and Land Air Temps Plunge

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With apologies to Paul Revere, this post is on the lookout for cooler weather with an eye on both the Land and the Sea.  While you will hear a lot about 2020-21 temperatures matching 2016 as the highest ever, that spin ignores how fast is the cooling setting in.  The UAH data analyzed below shows that warming from the last El Nino is now fully dissipated with chilly temperatures setting in all regions.  Last month both land and ocean remained cool.

UAH has updated their tlt (temperatures in lower troposphere) dataset for December.  Previously I have done posts on their reading of ocean air temps as a prelude to updated records from HadSST3 (still not updated from October). So I have separately posted on SSTs using HadSST4 2021 Ends with Cooler Ocean Temps  This month also has a separate graph of land air temps because the comparisons and contrasts are interesting as we contemplate possible cooling in coming months and years. Sometimes air temps over land diverge from ocean air changes, and last month showed air over land dropping slightly while ocean air rose.

Note:  UAH has shifted their baseline from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 beginning with January 2021.  In the charts below, the trends and fluctuations remain the same but the anomaly values change with the baseline reference shift.

Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.  Eventually we will likely have reliable means of recording water temperatures at depth.

Recently, Dr. Ole Humlum reported from his research that air temperatures lag 2-3 months behind changes in SST.  Thus the cooling oceans now portend cooling land air temperatures to follow.  He also observed that changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations lag behind SST by 11-12 months.  This latter point is addressed in a previous post Who to Blame for Rising CO2?

After a change in priorities, updates to HadSST4 now appear more promptly.  For comparison we can also look at lower troposphere temperatures (TLT) from UAHv6 which are now posted for December.  The temperature record is derived from microwave sounding units (MSU) on board satellites like the one pictured above. Recently there was a change in UAH processing of satellite drift corrections, including dropping one platform which can no longer be corrected. The graphs below are taken from the new and current dataset.

The UAH dataset includes temperature results for air above the oceans, and thus should be most comparable to the SSTs. There is the additional feature that ocean air temps avoid Urban Heat Islands (UHI).  The graph below shows monthly anomalies for ocean temps since January 2015.

 

Note 2020 was warmed mainly by a spike in February in all regions, and secondarily by an October spike in NH alone. In 2021, SH and the Tropics both pulled the Global anomaly down to a new low in April. Then SH and Tropics upward spikes, along with NH warming brought Global temps to a peak in October.  That warmth was gone as November 2021 ocean temps plummeted everywhere. With an upward bump in December, global ocean air at 0.2C matches 1/2015 and is 0.5C cooler than its peak in 02/2016.

Land Air Temperatures Tracking Downward in Seesaw Pattern

We sometimes overlook that in climate temperature records, while the oceans are measured directly with SSTs, land temps are measured only indirectly.  The land temperature records at surface stations sample air temps at 2 meters above ground.  UAH gives tlt anomalies for air over land separately from ocean air temps.  The graph updated for December is below.

 

Here we have fresh evidence of the greater volatility of the Land temperatures, along with extraordinary departures by SH land.  Land temps are dominated by NH with a 2020 spike in February, followed by cooling down to July and a second spike in November.  Note the mid-year spikes in SH winter months.  In December 2020 all of that was wiped out. Then 2021 followed a similar pattern with NH spiking in January, then dropping before rising in the summer to peak in October 2021. As with the ocean air temps, all that was erased in November with a sharp cooling everywhere. Last month there was further global land air cooling below 0.2C, a drop of 0.7C from the peak of 0.9C 02/2016.

The Bigger Picture UAH Global Since 1995

 

The chart shows monthly anomalies starting 01/1995 to present.  The average anomaly is 0.04, since this period is the same as the new baseline, lacking only the first 4 years. 1995 was chosen as an ENSO neutral year.  The graph shows the 1998 El Nino after which the mean resumed, and again after the smaller 2010 event. The 2016 El Nino matched 1998 peak and in addition NH after effects lasted longer, followed by the NH warming 2019-20.   A small upward bump in 2021 has been reversed with temps now returning again to the mean.

TLTs include mixing above the oceans and probably some influence from nearby more volatile land temps.  Clearly NH and Global land temps have been dropping in a seesaw pattern, nearly 1C lower than the 2016 peak.  Since the ocean has 1000 times the heat capacity as the atmosphere, that cooling is a significant driving force.  TLT measures started the recent cooling later than SSTs from HadSST3, but are now showing the same pattern.  It seems obvious that despite the three El Ninos, their warming has not persisted, and without them it would probably have cooled since 1995.  Of course, the future has not yet been written.

 

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January 12, 2022 at 09:16AM