Unusually, this is the third year in a row under La Niña.
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La Niña conditions and warm ocean temperatures have set the stage for another busy tropical storm year, says Eos.
If forecasts are correct, this season will mark the seventh consecutive above-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic.
NOAA forecasts out today predict a 65% chance of an above-average season, a 25% chance of a normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The ranges account for uncertainty in the data and models of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The year could be twice as active as normal, said NOAA forecaster Matthew Rosencrans at a news conference today. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index, which represents the season’s intensity and duration of storms, comes to 115 to 200. A near-average season has an ACE index between 66 and 111.
NOAA forecasts 14 to 21 named storms this season, which is higher than the average of 14.4 per season. Hurricane watchers may remember that 2020 and 2021 were the first 2 years that hurricane forecasters ran out of names for hurricanes after using all 21 storm names.
Six to 10 of the named storms could become hurricanes with winds clocking 74 miles per hour (119 kilometers per hour) or higher. Of those, three to six could grow into major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour) or above. NOAA gives the prediction 70% confidence.
The first storm disturbance of the year traveled over the Florida Panhandle yesterday [23 May]. Hurricane season officially runs from 1 June to 30 November.
The prediction agrees with independent forecasts issued by universities and agencies. All other forecasts but one predicted an above-average number of storms this year.
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
May 26, 2022 at 09:24AM