Met Office 2050 forecasts use ‘plausible scenarios’ that aren’t plausible 

Image credit: livescience.com

In their computer model game they use the discredited RCP 8.5 formula that assumes a highly unlikely temperature rise of 8.5°C by 2100 (not 2050). What’s the point?
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You may have seen some of our forecasts that look a little further ahead than you would usually expect, says the UK Met Office.

Although they use the same graphics as our normal weather forecasts, we’ve been producing theoretical ‘forecasts’ for 2050 to look at what conditions we could expect to see in the UK if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.

One of the greatest challenges with communicating the risks of climate change is how to show, in a relatable way, how changes in our atmosphere could impact the weather we experience on the Earth’s surface.

By showing what the weather could look like by 2050 at certain times of year, it helps people relate to how different their experiences might be under a changing climate.

To date we’ve produced plausible scenarios for a July 2050 heatwave, Wimbledon and Christmas 2054, and now we’ve examined how Glastonbury could look in 30 years’ time.

Plausible scenarios

The key aspect to these ‘forecasts’ is that they are plausible weather events for 2050. Of course, it isn’t possible to create a genuine weather forecast for 2050, however it is possible to generate a realistic forecast based on the atmospheric conditions projected for the future.

The future forecasts are based on climate projections using a high-emissions scenario. One of the biggest sources of uncertainty in climate change is how much the world manages to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the years to come. That’s why climate scientists model future global warming under various scenarios.

Although these forecasts use one of the higher emission scenarios (RCP8.5), in the middle of the century – where we are focusing – the difference in climate response between scenarios is much less than later in the century when the benefits of mitigation actions taking place now become much more apparent.

Continued here.

via Tallbloke’s Talkshop

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June 27, 2022 at 07:26AM

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